TRADE IDEA: SPY JUNE 17TH 193/196/212/215 IRON CONDOR
Updated
With VIX above 15, I'm layering on some additional SPY in the June monthly here ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 54%
P50: 71% (explained below)
Max Profit: 100/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 200/contract
Theta: 1.53/contract
Delta: -3.97
Notes: The overall probability of profit for the setup is quite low. However, the P50 -- the probability that the setup will reach 50% max profit sometime prior to expiry-- is 71%, which I'm more than satisfied with since I'm getting one-third the width of the spreads for the setup. The other thing is that I already have several iron condors on in that expiry, so I can "mix and match" the short call spreads of one iron condor with the short put spreads of another to peel them off should I want to do that at some point ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 54%
P50: 71% (explained below)
Max Profit: 100/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 200/contract
Theta: 1.53/contract
Delta: -3.97
Notes: The overall probability of profit for the setup is quite low. However, the P50 -- the probability that the setup will reach 50% max profit sometime prior to expiry-- is 71%, which I'm more than satisfied with since I'm getting one-third the width of the spreads for the setup. The other thing is that I already have several iron condors on in that expiry, so I can "mix and match" the short call spreads of one iron condor with the short put spreads of another to peel them off should I want to do that at some point ... .
Note
Chased price a bit; filled for 95/contract.Note
Covered today for a $49 debit, so netted $95 - $49 = 46/contract.
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