Weekly Thesis for SPY
Weekly High: $594.50
Weekly Low: $589.28
Weekly Close: $594.20
52-Week Range: $481.80 – $613.23
Critical Breakdown Level: 581
Why 581 matters:
It sits well below S₃ (585.60) and aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the past four-week swing (High 594.50 → Low 566.76), which calculates to roughly 581.10.
A decisive weekly close below 581 would breach both pivot-derived supports and this Fibonacci zone, opening the door to deeper pullbacks toward the May 9 low near $564.34
Potential Sell-Wall at 604
Why 604 is a resistance cluster:
It sits just above R₃ (601.26), a confluence of weekly pivot resistance and likely profit-taking levels.
A series of limit orders tend to cluster near these round-number extensions, forming a “sell wall” that may cap any rally unless broken on strong volume.
4. Strategy & Outlook
Caution advised: SPY must hold above 581 on a weekly close basis. A failure to do so would invalidate the recent up-move and likely lead to a test of lower support zones around 587 and 585, then potentially the mid-560s.
Bullish breakout: Only a sustained weekly close above 604—ideally on above-average volume—would signal renewed upside conviction and pave the way toward the 52-week high at $613+.
Action plan:
Wait for confirmation – don’t enter new longs until either 581 holds convincingly or 604 is cleared.
Use tight risk controls – if deploying swing trades, place stops just below 581 for longs or just above 604 for shorts.
Monitor volume – validate any breakout/breakdown with volume spikes to confirm institutional participation.
Im Waiting On Confirmation as Always Safe Trades & JoeWtrades
Weekly High: $594.50
Weekly Low: $589.28
Weekly Close: $594.20
52-Week Range: $481.80 – $613.23
Critical Breakdown Level: 581
Why 581 matters:
It sits well below S₃ (585.60) and aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the past four-week swing (High 594.50 → Low 566.76), which calculates to roughly 581.10.
A decisive weekly close below 581 would breach both pivot-derived supports and this Fibonacci zone, opening the door to deeper pullbacks toward the May 9 low near $564.34
Potential Sell-Wall at 604
Why 604 is a resistance cluster:
It sits just above R₃ (601.26), a confluence of weekly pivot resistance and likely profit-taking levels.
A series of limit orders tend to cluster near these round-number extensions, forming a “sell wall” that may cap any rally unless broken on strong volume.
4. Strategy & Outlook
Caution advised: SPY must hold above 581 on a weekly close basis. A failure to do so would invalidate the recent up-move and likely lead to a test of lower support zones around 587 and 585, then potentially the mid-560s.
Bullish breakout: Only a sustained weekly close above 604—ideally on above-average volume—would signal renewed upside conviction and pave the way toward the 52-week high at $613+.
Action plan:
Wait for confirmation – don’t enter new longs until either 581 holds convincingly or 604 is cleared.
Use tight risk controls – if deploying swing trades, place stops just below 581 for longs or just above 604 for shorts.
Monitor volume – validate any breakout/breakdown with volume spikes to confirm institutional participation.
Im Waiting On Confirmation as Always Safe Trades & JoeWtrades
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FREE Patreon Access
AlphaPulse Luxury Suite Indicators
Quantum Day & Swing Trading Assistant Bots
Coaching, Breakouts
Live Trading Signals, Options, Live Charts
Chart Analytics,
Stock & Crypto Chat
patreon.com/JoeWtrades/redeem/BFC08
AlphaPulse Luxury Suite Indicators
Quantum Day & Swing Trading Assistant Bots
Coaching, Breakouts
Live Trading Signals, Options, Live Charts
Chart Analytics,
Stock & Crypto Chat
patreon.com/JoeWtrades/redeem/BFC08
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.