Updated

Spy

I want to start off With DJI, NYA, IWM, XLF, And XLV. Those indexes and sectors are more cylicals and they led the slide this week.

DJI (Dow jones)

37,800 is previous resistance of the bullflag.. 37,800 will now be support. I think we dead cat here before eventually sliding to 37,000.
37,000 is crucial for bulls to hold, its the previous ATH set from 2021.. if we fall back below 37,000 that would mean that the breakout was a fake out and bulls are in trouble.

Already you Can see XLF and XLV have both pulled back inside previous ATH which is bearish
XLF

XLV

And more important than the Dow is NYA or NYSE.
Fell out of rising wedge last week and is also heading for the retest of previous ATH

The Fact that the sectors have rejected New ATH doesnt bode well for DJI amd NYA.

I think we will test those previous ATH late this week so that will spell a 2% drop from last weeks close.

But first! Look at your daily chart for NYA,XLF,XLV and DJI , now Place your bollingerbands on your chart; You see how extended it is? For this reason i think we will see a nuce dead cat bounce starting mid monday going into tuesday. The bounce should be finish by Wednesday!

QQQ
Daily chart.

Tested 50sma 6 straight times last week! This week im expecting a break of its 50.
I think we will trade between 436-442 unti TSM and NFLX earnings mid week.
Unlike Dow and NYA tech does have the oversold technicals that would make it a good dip buy. I like aapl to close gap at 179 this week and i think Amzn will retest 189 again but overall looks like it will be another mix week for tech .

My mid and long term target for QQQ are 425 and 407 which is previous ATH from 2021.

Im not shooting from the hip with my 407 target . The pattern is an ascending broadening wedge. The measured move goes like so

If you googl "Ascending broadening wedge" you'll see what i mean.

So yeah, 425 then finally 407, but first we have to break 433.

Spy

Qqq 425 and spy 497 are connected!
If the trend of retesting ATH breakout is true then that means Spy will most likely close gap at 482 when qqq goes for 407.. i dont think 482 would come in April but the move would make sense for a sell in may and go away.

As you know by now the last 6months of trading has been a major cup and handle move across indexes and sectors. Do you know what happens when the cup and handle is completed? I've traded Cup and handles before and let me tell you there is always a pullback or correction once pattern is completed; I think that is what is happening here.

Vix

So i usually like to use my indicators together to paint me a picture.. I dont like it when im bearish and the Vix looks like its about to dump . Looking at the Vix daily bollingerband, CCI and trendline tells me that the VIX will be pulling unless middle east war makes it go parabolic.. So i mentioned that its outside its Bbands, its also at 2yr trendline resistance and the daily CCI is too overextended.
Heres the vix with my CCI. I circled the last 2 times the CCI and vix got this high for reference and you can see that within a week or so a bearish reversal took place.

Going into to next week i expect spy to make a move back to 516 gap resistance before heading down to back to 50sma which would most likely move up to 510 by mid week.
Any break of 510 and 505 is next up. If spy pushes above 516 then 520 is next

As always, lets see what happens.. I'll do the tech sectors mid week... Hope you appreciate all this damn typing, my fingers hurts 😆

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One thing i left out.. There is a gap left open at 507.15 on spy.. Any break below last week low and that would be your first target

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Qqq 1hour chart.
Gap resistance us 442.20
Support is 1hour 200sma or yellow trendline around 441.30 ish.
Long over 443 to gap close
439.50 -441 is chop zone

Spy
5min 200sma at 513.80 this morning.. most likely they retest that.. any break below 5min 200 and 512 is next.
Overhead resistance is

1.515.00 price action
2. 515.85 gap resistance

I dont think gaps get close today so becareful being long on that area..

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Iwm
Long over 5min 200sma or 200.50
Target 202.50 or daily 50sma.
Channel trade

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Vix 1hour chart.. should pullback to trendline and 200ema at 15.40
At that point you wont want to be long unless it closes below 15.20

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You see the 2hour money flow on the ES and NQ? Too oversold still! .
This is a big gap up so i expect some pullback at the open but based on the moneyflow of the futures the move up isnt done until late tuesday or wed

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Dow jones 1hour chart.. gap right up to channel resistance.. Not good for longs on cylicals..
Unless break above 38,600
Then 37,800 incoming. Spy doesnt get any help from dow

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Its still early but qqq got smacked down at gap resistance 442. Sometimes when candle is outside Bollingerbands like the stock will chop green all day to let candle catch up ...

Which means we could chop most of the day...
Long only over 443 for qqq.

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Technicals still over sold here on futures..
Qqq just bounced off 50sma (AGAIN).. most likely they melt this up one more time tomorrow.. same levels at play

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Qqq next stop 435 gap close

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Spy still has support at 508.50
Qqq 435 gap close..

They break these levels and
Spy 507 is next

And qqq 433

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I'll be back on last hour

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Wow.. hit both weekly targets in 1 day.....
Now that we are under Spy 509 and QQQ 433 the next targets are 497 spy and 425 QQQ unless we reclaim previous support.

Dow below 37,800 and 37,000 incoming..

Wait for spy to break 502 to short 497.. 505-509 is chop

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Qqq 430-433 is chop. Below 430 and 425 gap incoming.

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XLC sector
(GOOGL,META,NFLX)
Back tested flag breakout. Falls back below 80 and things get nastt for the above stocks

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XLK (Msft and appl)
Very bearish break of 204 support .
198 is coming.. should accompany qqq down to 425.

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XLY (Amzn and Tsla).
Double to 170 incoming.

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SMH (Chip sector)
Bottom of a one month range with 50sma right below.. unless SMH breaks and closes below 215 NVDA will hold 830 support

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I think we have a push up tomorrow but im not bold enough to swing calls.. I'd rather wait on the intra day ride up. With standing the middle east news, the technical setup is there for a bounce

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NYA (Nyse) retesting previous ATH.. Broader market can not afford for this to close back below 17,400 for the week. Below 17400 and the would be 3 black crows on the weekly and the next target would be 16,000.. Bad for bank,cylicals, and smallcaps

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Good morning..
Today i think the rebound to 512 on spy starts.. i dont see us breaking over 512. After 512 i expect the short to continue down to 497 gap close.

My levels are
Long entry over 505.50

Targets are illustrated on chart
507.36
509.30
And finally 512.
Short only below 502.90 , target 500.

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Iwm 1hour chart..
Gap at 194.60.. i expect them to close that then rip.. my upside target is 200 (Double top neckline)
Short only below 194, target 192.00 or 200ma

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Qqq 1hour chart..
1st target 433.50
Last target 435-436.
After that we head back down
Short only below 430.

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Spy 15min chart.. ping ponging on this channel here.. choppy until break

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NYA and small caps dragging the most .. NYA first to close NVDA earningd gap at 17,387..
Expect cylicals and small caps to bounce here

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Slow going but its going..
I'll be back on last hour

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Nothing new to see .. mid term supports held.. mostly choppy premium burn today..
I'll have to lower my Spy 512 target to 510 now...

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I think we could push into friday higher on a technical bounce.. as long as QQQ closes the week below 440 and spy 514 that would be a red candle a setup for 3 black crows.. April 24th will have big tech reporting, April 25th Core PCE.. Id be looking for new lows then

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10yr push up to a major gap resistance here at 4.700.. weekly and daily candle outside Bbands.. perfect setup fir a pullback to 4.5 gap..

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Vix daily chart
. 3 straight days outside bbands
3 straight rejections at trendline..
CCI tells me the vix will pullback to 15-16.00 and retest 200ema

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So vix and 10yr both at tough resistances why all the indexes are at tough support.. unless war pops off the setup is there for a rebound..

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YM ( Dow jones futures)
Daily chart
Daily money flow went oversold,
Last 4 times this happened the dow rallied 3-4%.. I think the Dow jones and Ym will retest 50sma in the coming days

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I wont be on today, I'll be back tomorrow Mid day..

507.50 is my spy target for today..
433.50 for QQQ.
Price could go higher but i think they save it for Either TSM earnings tomorrow morning or NFLX earnings..

Final upside targets should be 50sma across all indexes.

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Catch you later ✌

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Dow jones 38,000 resistance Slapped down last 2 days.. either we breakout today or tomorrow or we head to 37,000

Qqq 433 is a brick wall now! Double top neckline.. optimism stops there..
Fallen wedge building on this fast slide we should get a bounce in the next session for a 433 test then most likely 420 is next up

Spy 30min chart..
503 resistance any pop over 503 and 507 should be where the optimism fades..
497 is coming

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Smd chip sector .. double top completed at 207.. chips should have a nice bounce for a day or so

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XLK , double top completed here also

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XLY double top almost 90% complete.. will complete with tsla 144 gap close

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5min 200sma on spy.. if it can push over that then 505 is next up

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Qqq 15min chart ..
429 or 5min 200sma is the target for today..
Falling wedge showing.. Should pop to 433

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Dow jones 15min chart..
If it can close above 38,00 today, then 38,500 gap close is next up

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2 hour chart on NQ.. i wont go over how oversold this is. I just want to go over the minor falling wedge inside a broadening wedge.. Looking real bullish ahead of Big tech earning next week.

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Rejected here on wedge resistance.. Next strongest support on QQQ is at 421.90 if it makes another low. Other wise its just not enough strength to breakout today..

Same with dow at 38,000

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Spy.. same wedge as qqq
495-497 gap close then bounce..
Rebound to 50sma

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Although QQQ closed its gap at 425, the Nasdaq or IXIC never closed its gap at 15,580. Should close gap today... if it bounces there then QQQ bounces at 421.90

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416.74 gap on qqq. Expect bounce back up to 420..

497 gap closed on spy.. Last week dow this week tech... Next week early rebound

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Long term we head to 407 qqq and 482 spy.. Did not get on significant bounce this week.

Dow and NYA held supports but they led the correction.. tech is next to bounce before all head lower

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Im long 420c
4/23

Stop loss below 415.00

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Whats up guys.. update coming in a few hours.. going over Everything now....

ContraryTrader

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