2025 Recession, SPY to Crash But Not Yet
Every finance youtuber has been singing about an incoming market crash, recession and all sorts of doom for the past year during this unprecedented (very precedented?) bull run after yields inverted.
Just going by the usual patterns and the technicals I would guess that the real pain wont start until April or May, that is based on how bonds uninverted in both 2000 and 2008.
I think it makes sense, there is a lot of excitement around Trump and what he will do, all this make America Great and panama and tax cuts and IRS. The first 100 days of the Trump Presidency could have some hope which keeps the market afloat, and as a twist of fate the end of the 100 days lines up with the typical crash timing after an uninversion, that being around May of this year.
If we do crash and go to recession I expect some big action from the Fed, after all we have Trump and he will be flaming Powel all day long, so the Fed may react quickly with a big cut that pumps the market up and then 1 more drop to gap fill us around 4300 level (SPY 430).
Overall I expect a year of pain for the SNP500, but It won't start just yet, this has been a massive run up and so a topping pattern will take time to form, wait for signs of distribution lower low followed by lower high, sell in May and Stay Away.
We will see if/how it plays out.
Good Luck, Safe Trades, God Bless.
Just going by the usual patterns and the technicals I would guess that the real pain wont start until April or May, that is based on how bonds uninverted in both 2000 and 2008.
I think it makes sense, there is a lot of excitement around Trump and what he will do, all this make America Great and panama and tax cuts and IRS. The first 100 days of the Trump Presidency could have some hope which keeps the market afloat, and as a twist of fate the end of the 100 days lines up with the typical crash timing after an uninversion, that being around May of this year.
If we do crash and go to recession I expect some big action from the Fed, after all we have Trump and he will be flaming Powel all day long, so the Fed may react quickly with a big cut that pumps the market up and then 1 more drop to gap fill us around 4300 level (SPY 430).
Overall I expect a year of pain for the SNP500, but It won't start just yet, this has been a massive run up and so a topping pattern will take time to form, wait for signs of distribution lower low followed by lower high, sell in May and Stay Away.
We will see if/how it plays out.
Good Luck, Safe Trades, God Bless.
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