After a sloppy last few weeks of trading to wrap up the year-end 22', SPY closed right around the (Q4/22') SPX JPM J.P. Morgan Quarterly Collar sitting right at $3,830.
Looking ahead to the month of January, we have lots of upcoming data including December Inflation CPI, Jobs Report(s)/Unemployment Data (UNRATE), Producer Price Index (PPIACO), Leading Economic Data such as the OECD Composite Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM), Upcoming Q4/22' Earnings Releases, etc., of which is seems markets are staying relatively "pinned" for the time being until this data starts hitting the markets & investors come back from the extended holiday season.
Per our "40-Bar Cycle" chart, while I expect that this next down-leg in SPY SPX will likely play out as shown in the in the charts. However, do keep in mind that there are some seasonal tailwinds & also some tailwinds for markets regarding mid-term election cycles.
Here is what history tells us about pre-presidential election mid-term seasonality: 🇺🇸🗳🗓
“Third year pre-presidential election is the strongest.” (Up Double Digits, Historically)
Looking ahead to the month of January, we have lots of upcoming data including December Inflation CPI, Jobs Report(s)/Unemployment Data (UNRATE), Producer Price Index (PPIACO), Leading Economic Data such as the OECD Composite Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM), Upcoming Q4/22' Earnings Releases, etc., of which is seems markets are staying relatively "pinned" for the time being until this data starts hitting the markets & investors come back from the extended holiday season.
Per our "40-Bar Cycle" chart, while I expect that this next down-leg in SPY SPX will likely play out as shown in the in the charts. However, do keep in mind that there are some seasonal tailwinds & also some tailwinds for markets regarding mid-term election cycles.
Here is what history tells us about pre-presidential election mid-term seasonality: 🇺🇸🗳🗓
“Third year pre-presidential election is the strongest.” (Up Double Digits, Historically)
- Dow = 19.3% (Since 1949) Dow Jones Industrial Average
- S&P 500 = 20% (Since 1949) SPY SPX ES1!
- Nasdaq = 29.3% (Since 1971) QQQ NQ1!
Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com/macrodailyco/status/1598478131781947393?s=20&t=K4BSn2Oy1wwoDg1BIwewnw
Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com/macrodailyco/status/1610009011142672385?s=20&t=K4BSn2Oy1wwoDg1BIwewnw
Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com/macrodailyco/status/1610009293633294336?s=20&t=K4BSn2Oy1wwoDg1BIwewnw
Election Cycles Data Explained via Twitter Space 🔊: twitter.com/kylemusserco/status/1553053926219546626?s=20&t=K4BSn2Oy1wwoDg1BIwewnw
SPY Daily Chart Template
tradingview.com/chart/5jxKmP...Which camp are you in on the short-term (Q1/23') direction of markets?- *Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Lowering, But High Inflation [4-5% YoY] aka Stagflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses).
*Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into Q1/23', as mid-term election/pre-presidential cycle seasonality kicks in & also as the economy proves more "strong" than many are discounting (Peak Inflation + Light Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED via Pending 'Pause' + Nominal Earnings "Resiliency").
- *Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Lowering, But High Inflation [4-5% YoY] aka Stagflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses).
To Wealth & Prosperity,
Kyle
Kyle
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
To Wealth & Prosperity,
Kyle
Kyle
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.