Spy

Updated

I'll be going over

QQQ
Es
Nq
NYA

And. A few major tech sectors
Soxx (Chips)
XLK (AAPL , Msft)
XLC (Meta, Googl)

Let's start with the
So if you've , notice for the entire month of Dec , anything other than tech stocks straight nose dived .
With Earnings season 2 weeks away and a new presidency let's see how things stand

Here's the weekly chart zoomed out from 2009.. Price tagged the top of that white trend line late Nov

And zoomed in you can see that price broke the uptrend (Yellow channel) from 2023 lows.. now we can grind sideways until some catalyst snatches it back down to support like I circled in green

Either way you're either Neutral or Bearish using this chart.. Every time I look at it I think " this is why buffet is selling"

Now pay attention.. You see how you like to use your indicators for direction? Well I like to use different indexes and sector on top of my indicators to give more confirmation and to you it may seem like a lot but I've been doing this setup for years and it literally takes me about 10-15min to incorporate everything into trade able information..

Last week Thurs A few things hit resistance all at the same time

Look here At ES and NQ

NQ

Now look at XLK and XLC

XLK

XLC

Now , I dropped the ball there because that was obvious short and I should've been loaded short but I think it's so more room to the down side.

You want to know if Spy can go to 620? Only if tech complies.. I've showed you XLK and XLC and they do not look bullish.. from a weekly perspective a lower high was made across the board and that Christmas pop could've just been a dead cat bounce .

Here's QQQ zoomed out

Zoomed in

The area I circled was the fake out when they added PLTR and MSTR to
Qqq

Now notice how we made a higher low but a lower high.. that price action always defines it's self as a pennant

Inside that pennant we could push up 527-528... A break above 531 and we'll melt back to 533-537

Nothing news worth for a big push to to upside except for TSLA car sales after New years

This interesting chart... and have been following this instead of Smh..

On major trend line support here... Didn't budge much even with all the selling Friday and if you notice neither did AMD.. price is pinned right below it's weekly 20/50ma.. A major move is coming for this sector In the next 2weeks ..

Bears see a H&S

Bulls see a pennant

Even though Im Bearish on most tech, this market can be a scam.. for example, most tech sold off since FOMC but they used AAPL to prop up the market .. Now that AAPL is overbought and due for a correction could they use Soxx to prop? It wouldn't stopped the slide but it would mitigate.. These bulls always find some shit to rotate into 😂.

Lastly here's Spy

Same pennant setup as QQQ
I can see a push back to 600 this week
At 600 we will see if it rejects and Kick off the sell to 566 or break above 602 and push to 608...

Yes it's a pennant

But it can also be a consolidation of a right shoulder for a H&S

Anything above 592 on Monday could be a dip buy for a push back to 600 stop loss below 590... 592-595 is chop

This market goes nowhere without tech though so let's see what happens.

These technicals picture took me 10min to see but 1 hour to type up. Don't troll the comment section, they have stocktwits and Webull for that...
I don't charge shyt and I don't want anything .. Genuine questions always welcome and your technical view is appreciated. Sometimes you may see things I don't 🤝

Trade active

Bank earnings kick off 2nd week of Jan .

Zoom out and look at the History of sector .. Not in a good position for the long going into to 2025 for financials. If Monday is red We'd finish the month of Dec with a dark cloud cover

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Running late
Good morning

Gap down.. wait for Qqq to break 514.00 to open short.. target 510..
If it doesn't break 514 it can bounce back to 5178-520

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Looking like a control end of year tax harvest... Don't catch a knife

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Until vix breaks back below 18.00. There will be selling pressure... Vix weekly 200sma is at 19.00 over 19 and things get worse.. below 18.00 and dip will be bought

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Small caps.. back at 217 lows and support.. below that and 214 comes..

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I'll be honest, if qqq closes below 516 then 510 is next or 50sma... Below 510 and price won't stop the fall until 495 or weekly 20sma..

This will pull spy down to 563-566

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Look at the monthly candles tomorrow

All are showing Bearish reversals... I think Q1 will be a rough time for bulls

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They are buying the dip on small caps and dow

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Dips bought... At this rate we'll finish with a hammer.. if QQQ closes above 516 they will buy again tomorrow

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Looks like they buy this back up to Spy 592 or 50ma..

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Vix falls below 16.60 and they'll squeeze it up more today

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Spy rebound stop right under the 50ma.. over 592.50 and 595 comes... I don't like swinging calls right under the 50..

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You know, I mentioned on X at the beginning of Dec that the Christmas rally usually comes last week Of Dec.. Market decided otherwise and pumped QQQ from 498 to 539 in 2weeks.. Like I said, you go your Xmas rally already!. They even gave you another chance to get out with the low volume pump last week...

Here's how we finished on Qqq today..
Under the 516 but above the 514... 510 i is still in play unless they melt back up over 518 early tomorrow

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I mentioned earlier how the monthly candle For Dec is Bearish on a lot of indexes and sectors..

You have to understand how to trade a monthly candle... A monthly candle usually doesn't or has to fulfill technical projection until around the 2nd or 3rd week. Of the following month . With that being said, we could pump and dead cat bounce for the next 2weeks but by the 3rd week of Jan we will take out the low of Dec and my target is 566 at some point next month

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If you are a bull , your argument is Cylicals like Energy, Transportation and Health are oversold but you have to admit that when. You look at Amzn , AAPL and TSLA weekly charts they are overbought...

So my question is, which will impact the market more, a cyclical smallcap pump or a tech wreck?..

Buying the Dip with time has worked for the last 2years.. let's see if that strategy pays this year

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Good morning...
If you have time could you Google this

"Abandon baby candlestick pattern"

It's a reversal pattern..

This gap up today could push spy back to 596-600...

By End of week

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Don't like the short unless yesterday's lows are taking out here

support and long scalp entry is around 587.50. first target is 592 or 50sma...

Keep in mind if you swing long , TSLA report car sales Thurs premarket and that will affect how we open up.

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Opening up.. Qqq 15min..
Flush right from resistance
. Shorts below 514.00

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Same with Dow Jones.. rejection..

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The fact they are still propping Small caps up feels more of a rebalancing then a serious short.. be nimble with a tight stop if you are short
.
It all depends on QQQ holding 514

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Interesting they are not seriously buying tech.. just propping it up flat

While iwm is up over 1%

Thursday openen will decide whether QQQ gets a pop on flush.. 514 is the line in the sand

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Stopped out twice today.. trading IWM..

1loss and 1 winner. Both small..
Too much chop

I'll be back on later... But I won't be doing another trade until thursday

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Monthly candle for is a reversal..

is even worse..

So is and NYA..

If you're long going into Q1 good luck and Happy New years

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most likely we close beneath 514 support ..

Next target below 509 is 497 or weekly 20sma...

527-530 are off the table

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Cyclical got a nice bid and buy off that dip.. tech not so much..
But nobody like buying calls on Energy and financials ; Just tech

AMD dip buy single handedly destroyed a generation

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First Happy New years to you and your love ones.

I'm looking for Dec lows to be taking out in January , most likely If Qqq doesn't break below 509 this week we will bounce back until Mid Jan or late next week.

Here's how Qqq finishes on the Bigger picture

We closed outside the rising wedge for the first time...

If 510 holds then we could retest 20sma , down trend and rising wedge on a move like this

Last 2 day price action has created a small fallen wedge here at 50sma support.. the bounce would be back 526 gap resistance..

So going forward, it's simple.. Qqq break 509 and down we go.. otherwise we bounce back to 526

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Good morning.. Qqq 509 support .. I doubt it breaks it... Looking for a bounce to 520-526... ..

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let the bounce happen, and enjoy some scalping to the upside.. don't fade it.. around 520-525 look for the red again

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Dow Jones 4 hour chart.. Sitting on top of it's 4hr 200sma.. rejected today at downtrend resistance. Something has to give in the next 2 sessions or this turns into a Bearish triangle.

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Bearish guys ... No bounce coming

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below 50sma and weekly 20sma is next up at 497...
Fade ever pop stop loss above 512.00

Double top below 509..

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A very big move down on tech is coming.. Descending triangle formed here after the rising wedge on XLC.. has tagged the 50sma 3 days in a row looks Bearish

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XLY.same double top as Tsla...

215 previous ATH retest is next up

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Good morning !

Remember Futures were oversold more than cash so the overnight pop was warranted..

Last 30min of yesterday's trading formed a bear flag on QQQ

I'm looking for follow through sell on AAPL and TSLA

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2 hour chart

Next week we go to 23 or 15..
Big move coming

For today It stay elevated above 16.50

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Qqq below 512.50 and gap close to 510 will follow .

512.50 -516.00 = chop.

Above 517 and 519 comes

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Price will most likely close that 523 gap next week at the 20sma.. the flush back down..

Until then we trade between 514-519..
Intra day finished with a rising wedge on and

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Last update for this post..

Wed and Friday will be the biggest moves..

ADP wed premarket followed by minutes mid day afternoon.

Friday is the monthly job numbers.

Looking at spy.. Im looking for a similar move to what I posted above on QQQ
A early pullback to 588-590 followed by a move to 597 before a leg down to close gap at 577... If they are going to close that gap then it will most likely come the week before earnings season.

Seen some setups I'll share here

I think it's a 80% chance gap at 227 gets closed. Price is trading between 221 (21ema) and 225 (20sma).. wait for a pullback near 221 and take the long for 227

Meta
Over 609 (20sma) and I like calls to 620..

Googl
I like the scalp short here... Any tag of 192 and short it back down to. 188 (21ema)

Won't be as active till Wednesday.. catch you'll later

ContraryTrader

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