1995 Thesis Being Tested
Updated
In my previous idea and in many of my comments here on TV I have noted how similar today's market is to the 1995 market specifically. Today's three-day candle close matches one similar event in 1995 right at the end of the year, as compared in the idea. This was the only time 3 consecutive three-day candles printed in 1995 & the next close will be critical to determine if this comparison is still valid.
Please see the ideas I've linked for two other direct comparisons between this market and 1995 (& late 1994 in one of the ideas). The comments in Steversteves idea include a mathematical comparison between 1995 & 2024 using ATR and average daily change that will likely be invalidated if we see more downside right away.
Please see the ideas I've linked for two other direct comparisons between this market and 1995 (& late 1994 in one of the ideas). The comments in Steversteves idea include a mathematical comparison between 1995 & 2024 using ATR and average daily change that will likely be invalidated if we see more downside right away.
Note
MomentumsThis group looks poor on most other timeframes, but we do have negative divergence on the 1H ADX & Stochastic RSI.
Note
Other ResistancesIf we do keep falling, the next resistances are 508 & 497-98. Do note this is the first time we have had a regular daily candle close outside the 100-day logarithmic linear regression curve since the start of this run last autumn.
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The close .04 under my observed resistance of 514.20 should have been taken more seriously as a line I put on my own chart - even if it was under it by less than a nickel.It does seem like bearish price action is all but confirmed after a secondary trend re-test and rejection of the log-linear regression channel. Thursday's falling volume also suggests absent buyers. The gap zone from the island reversal earlier this year seems interesting as 510-505 are less thoroughly traded than other 5-point increments so far in our run.
Next 3D candle closes on Monday. This would be 4 down candles printed in a row and likely change 2024's ATR to be too dissimilar to 1995, disproving the thesis. Bullish price action is possible though, but a candle seems drawn to at least the median of the log channel at 507 first.
Note
Tenkansen (blue) & kijunsen (green) haven't touched yet. Watch for a retest of 514.20 or higher if it keeps pointing down or possibly a tight range if these two lines come evenly together on Monday.
Note
VolatilityVIX at close on Thursday. It looked like it wasn't finished.
VIX at close on Friday. Tenkansen & kijunsen have also not quite met. It looks more like a double top at the log channel top, and that is a very weak neck on the Ichimoku cloud at the bottom...
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