SPY: A bit of a mixed bag

SPY, anything less than a Dumpster Fire would be an understatement.

I go over my general thoughts as I have interpreted them from probability metrics. However, owning to the incredible prolonged ranginess post 2-years of continuous, non-stop upside, my traditional approaches to probability modelling are a bit shook and confused. This leads me to not a lot of confidence in what to expect in the longer term; however, confident about the shorter term outlook.

Here are the key take aways of my analysis that are based in the objective data:

SPY is expecting a -1.94% decline into the week (approximately 2%). This can come before upside, or can come after upside, but the expectation is that SPY falls roughly 2% at some point this week. This is calculated from SPY's open price on Monday. So if SPY opens at 594, we would subtract 1.94% from 594 or:
594 - (594 * 0.0194) = 582.48
We should be retracing the 591 range into Monday.
The target probability is bullish, with an expected upside target of around 600.
The best fit bearish target is 588 on the week.
We retain huge resistance at 597 that has provided significant resistance 20% of the time, according to modelled metrics.
We retain substantial resistance at 607, which has provided significant resistance 40% of the time, according to modelled metrics.
We retain ultimate resistance at 612, which has provided significant resistance 100% of the time.

Thanks for watching!

Note

I can tell by the PA on futures that its back to business as usual (BAU).
So probably just blindly long and you'll be rewarded.

Cavet is I do anticipate larger volatility to remain, so be prepared for massive tanks out of nowhere but should be bought back up.

Unless something dramatic changes, I would go with that xD.

Safe trades everyone! Ofc not advice here.

Note

591 right on que today :-D

Note

Anyone day trading SPY today the range for the day is between 597 and 590, per ARIMA.

Note

What a fantastic day!
I was worried that we would go back to the grindy sideways market thesis, but its over, its over for bull and bear and its now just a volatile market which is 100% my jam!
Loving this!
Very happy tbh.

Hope you are all trading safely and good luck!

Note

Oh man I should just stop imposing my own opinions and just dictate what the math says lmfao.
If you followed the summary I posted, you would have done well:

Hit the 588 and almost at the expected negative returns as the forecast model predicted.

What happens after that who knows! but at least things played out accordingly.

Note

Hey guys,
Lots of requests for updates, so here is some general FYI.

I anticipate SPY doing a mean reversion, with the current mean being 561.

SPY seems to be moving very fast to the downside; the velocity and price action are IDENTICAL to 2022 start.

It took SPY 14 days to lose 12% from its high. This is where we are so far:

Just over 6% in 10 days from the high.

The entire pullback of 2022 for SPY was about 26%.

For QQQ was over 35%.

Not that I am saying bear market, I am just setting benchmarks for you guys to watch out for and be aware of.

In terms of the outlook today, expect SPY to retrace 577.71 (upside).

Steversteves

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Steversteves

If you're looking for:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
Consider joining my trade group at:
patreon.com/steversteves

Also on: