SPY bigger picture

Updated

I am going slowly short.
SPY should make another leg down this week.
Level of interest is 475-470
Lets see what Wednesday will bring, until then we should stay flat.

From the lows of 470, we shall do the usual election run.
target 548?

Ill be updating this idea.

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correction
short target is 477, 450

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So far so good.
I took small short yesterday, Ill keep it until I get 470
The rest of my money went to cannabis stock, which I took large position yesterday.

Tomorrow we bounce as we're 1h oversold, I am not going to play it, every bounce will be sold immediately.
I will increase my short position tomorrow if I see weakness.
Good lucj eveyone

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I suspect spike on Feds news, then sale off.
On the other hand , If we fall on Feds, I may be playing the bounce tomorrow

careful today, usually the first move is fake out

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like a clock
H&S

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508 should be the top. a bit confusing with yesterdays price action we could conclude H&S...
Apple earnings this afternoon will tell the rest of the story.

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made this chart long ago, but it holds. Apple earnings are not best, after this earning move, I expect slow bleed.
SPY idea still holds

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We jumped over resistance, so in theory we are bullish, but something is not right. So I took my small short position off in pre market and Ill watch Monday on the sideline. ATH is possible, but so is anything else.

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QQQ is amaing for 440 where big resistance is.
Most likely its a good place the make a bet against the market

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I am neutral on short term, no swings, daily scalping only.
SPY looks like it will go higher, perhaps ATH or higher.
there is a chance it could be a bull trap, so stay alert.

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tomorrow I'll be looking at quick short trade. SPY should retrace to 512 (green line)
it could go deeper (yellow line) to retest previous resistance line, but I doubt that.

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VIX is getting close to oversold and major support, bearish divergence, 4h oversold give me good trade on the way down.

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to sum it up:
SPY should retrace to 512 or 505 and then potentially double top or slightly higher.
from there blood to 470 or 450
from there election moon rally

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Bear flags all over
lets see if it works.

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In spite of BEAR FLAG, I didn't go short yet, both SPY and QQQ closed green and market kind of pulls all kind of tricks lately to outsmart traders.
Lets see what Monday brings.

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Looks like SPY wants its target, in premarket we dropped to 418 and bounce back.
We may test 418 again today.

On the side: I played GME and took home 130 percent profit, so Ill trade lightly.

Watch TLRY for next meme squeeze.

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If we dont break 522, say hello to 518 today

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I am back with this chart, although it took a little loner, I believe were topping now.
The only thing that holds this schnitzel is stubborn NVDA.
Give it 2-6 weeks and were going to visit 470

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We are going to bounce this morning, so don't short it yet.
We're getting data this morning and are oversold.
If we don't make new highs, this bounce will be sold quickly and it will trap bulls

Wait.

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We also made inverse H on 15min in premarket.
So the Schnitzel is going up again.

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OK
Morning numbers are no event. My bias is still bearish, so other then 1h bounce nothing changes in my book.
I think that todays bounce will be sold tomorrow.

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I guess we are waiting for NVDA to reach its ballooned target 1174
Other then that market wants to go down.

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5220 for US500 worked out perfectly.
NVDA finally gave up.
tomorrow another round of data, Inflation I think , lets see how index behave, but usually index bounces hard on that. IF we do, I'll play it , but will turn short again EOD
I am out of my short position in after market (SOXS)

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I am going to stay on the side today. US500 on 1h has bullish divergence, but I dont feel comfortable with it, so I am just going to watch and see better picture on Monday.
Stay safe !

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for the brave ones
Here is possible falling wedge signaling bullish move

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potential bull trap.
unless we break 5284, I may take small short position EOD.

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pullback was healthy at opening, so I took a quick trade with SOXL
49.35 - 50.20
but no long position for me.

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lots of selling, don't try catching a falling knife.
Wish I did hold my SOXS, but still happy making some profits on the opening trades.

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waiting for NVDA to fill the gap and I may play the bounce

abigreen

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