SPY Pennant Continues to Pierce
Updated
In my last analysis, I explained that were within a pennant formation. we have since broken down out of that pennant and successfully backtested it as resistance. So far resistance has held, and so we are rejecting until we get supported. Price closed right on our horizontal Support for this move. This makes it its third touch at this extremely important horizontal support, I would expect this support to now be weakened enough to get crushed, and to possibly finally produce the impulsive waterfall selling that I have been anticipating, for a week.
Earlier today, the bulls had all that they needed to give price an honest try higher for a bounce, The first 6 minutes was all of the bullish movement today after that heavy selling followed. IF the bulls were to try to approach all-time highs, then it would have had to have happened today around midday, most likely, but the bulls failed this pass and fumbled right into the bear's hands to make a run for it.
I am expecting my previous analysis to hold true with its measured move price targets in the TP1 275 and TP2 270, I favor the second TP.
The devil is in the details. Knowing when the price should have been supported, is a nice tell. Other tells are constant bull traps, living below downtrend lines, lower highs/lows. Bigger picture dynamics that could all work together in a nasty domino effect of fear and panic. Or the way step back approach of, realizing price hasn't done anything new in almost 2 years on this chart..... consolidation, and I would venture to say possibly mass distribution.
To me, all the signs of a bear market crash are here, but to confirm something like this on any one day's price action is impossible. Observing the actions of price throughout the coming weeks will be a great indicator if we are going to plunge to the depths of this chart. this theory will continue to be denied or confirmed on a daily basis, depending on the chart's price action. Unfortunately, this could be a bear market crash, and that is not just something to trade, that is something that can negatively impact many peoples lives, friends and families here in the USA or anywhere else in the world. I hope that they are able to find good resources to help them protect themselves in such market conditions. If your still skeptical, but want to learn and try to figure this thing out then in encrouge you to skim through my previous posts, especially around the big important moves through this year.
Once we finally do get to the 270 horizontal then I will be using that horizontal level to judge the overall strength versus the weakness of this potential market cycle change. We could always just ask a magic eightball if we are still in a bull market. IF, we cannot hold that area and live below the yellow POC line the magic eight ball says, " Don't Count on it." IF that yellow line holds and doesn't break on the 2nd try then magic eight ball says, "Ask again later" I would expect the first hit of 270 to be supported but on the second or third hit of any support then I become more and more ready for a break down of the fragile support.
Stay safe traders, and please be tenacious.
Earlier today, the bulls had all that they needed to give price an honest try higher for a bounce, The first 6 minutes was all of the bullish movement today after that heavy selling followed. IF the bulls were to try to approach all-time highs, then it would have had to have happened today around midday, most likely, but the bulls failed this pass and fumbled right into the bear's hands to make a run for it.
I am expecting my previous analysis to hold true with its measured move price targets in the TP1 275 and TP2 270, I favor the second TP.
The devil is in the details. Knowing when the price should have been supported, is a nice tell. Other tells are constant bull traps, living below downtrend lines, lower highs/lows. Bigger picture dynamics that could all work together in a nasty domino effect of fear and panic. Or the way step back approach of, realizing price hasn't done anything new in almost 2 years on this chart..... consolidation, and I would venture to say possibly mass distribution.
To me, all the signs of a bear market crash are here, but to confirm something like this on any one day's price action is impossible. Observing the actions of price throughout the coming weeks will be a great indicator if we are going to plunge to the depths of this chart. this theory will continue to be denied or confirmed on a daily basis, depending on the chart's price action. Unfortunately, this could be a bear market crash, and that is not just something to trade, that is something that can negatively impact many peoples lives, friends and families here in the USA or anywhere else in the world. I hope that they are able to find good resources to help them protect themselves in such market conditions. If your still skeptical, but want to learn and try to figure this thing out then in encrouge you to skim through my previous posts, especially around the big important moves through this year.
Once we finally do get to the 270 horizontal then I will be using that horizontal level to judge the overall strength versus the weakness of this potential market cycle change. We could always just ask a magic eightball if we are still in a bull market. IF, we cannot hold that area and live below the yellow POC line the magic eight ball says, " Don't Count on it." IF that yellow line holds and doesn't break on the 2nd try then magic eight ball says, "Ask again later" I would expect the first hit of 270 to be supported but on the second or third hit of any support then I become more and more ready for a break down of the fragile support.
Stay safe traders, and please be tenacious.
Note
Hitting a supply zone from our lows at open. I expect the price to roll over from here as we run into a confluence of resistance on the smaller timeframes. Declining Volume also supports this. Note
Anticipating for sell pressure to come in at these levels on the SPY. The immediate formation (ascending wedge) and the confluence with prior horizontal support. Likely to top soon and break down impulsively. If it is not impulsively then there could be some buyers interested in the horizontal 275 Just below. Note
275 Did Hold as support, as mentioned in the above analysis. It actually overshot this support a bit which is common with stocks after very volatile swings. Volatility is high in these charts, so expect price action to act very different then it had in the prior years of trading. We are hitting the major resistances/ supports much faster. As I am a biased bear, I would continue to expect most bullish breakouts to be traps. I expect the price to sell off from here, and will update with a new idea if I get to it tonight.
Note
Note
arrows lined up perfectly wow. Note
ascending wedge in the futures. Things are compressed and likely to sell off at open ... right now
Note
yes it broke above but it did so non impulsively and in an ascending corrective nature. Looking for the down impulse.Note
Close to breaking down. Note
Spy appears to be struggling here to proceed higher. Whenever this does top I am expecting a sell-off back down to 275 area to test it as support and likely break that support and continue to our next major horizontal. Note
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.