SPDR S&P 500Short
Market Pulse: ETF Insights, Vix Strength & Going Forward
Hey Friends,
Here’s your market update! Today, I’ll be covering the three major ETFs — SPY, QQQ, and IWM — and sharing key insights to help you prepare for 2025.
To provide additional depth and context, I’ll also discuss three popular Twitter tickers: CVNA, MSTR, and TSLA, in a post or two later by December 28.
Key Observations: VIX Behavior
The recent VIX sell-off led to expectations of a continued decline, but instead, we’re seeing signs of a bottoming RSI — an early warning of potential turbulence ahead.
This suggests a possible continuation of the violent correction we’ve seen recently. Today, the VIX flirted with completing a bear flag, which could have driven it lower. However, it fought back and rallied higher instead.
Key Takeaways:
• VIX remains at a critical inflection point.
• Watch closely for signals of increased volatility going into early 2025.
Trend Analysis: SPY ETF
Over the last five months (since August 2nd lows), SPY formed a wedge pattern. However, last week’s sharp correction saw that wedge break down decisively.
Bulls have since failed to reclaim the broken level, confirming a break-and-retest pattern of the wedge.
Key Observations:
• December 5th & 18th Triangle Patterns: These eerie formations preceded sharp corrections and signal continued market instability.
• SPY’s inability to reclaim the wedge may indicate further downside pressure.
Trend Analysis: QQQ ETF
The QQQ chart mirrors SPY almost identically, showing how supposedly independent markets align during or after significant moves. This synchronicity raises concerns for those banking on diversification.
Key Observations:
• QQQ and SPY are moving in lockstep, signaling a lack of market independence.
• Further alignment during corrections could amplify downside risks.
Trend Analysis: IWM ETF
Small caps are struggling. Even with “good news” — potential rate cuts and falling inflation — IWM has remained underperforming.
Key Levels and Patterns:
• Key Weekly Zone to Hold: $162-$245 base breakout area.
• Cup and Handle Formation: While the base is forming, the handle has yet to develop. The $313 target is still in play but faces significant resistance.
• Bearish EMA Crossover: Currently developing a 5 & 9 EMA death cross, which could signal further downside.
Key Takeaway:
IWM’s weakness suggests broader market hesitancy in risk-on assets, despite macro improvements.
Stay Tuned
Later today, I’ll share more detailed insights into CVNA, MSTR, and TSLA, breaking down their price action and what they might signal for 2025.
If you found this useful, leave a like, comment, or reply with your thoughts or questions!
Thanks for reading,
Coi Lemard
Here’s your market update! Today, I’ll be covering the three major ETFs — SPY, QQQ, and IWM — and sharing key insights to help you prepare for 2025.
To provide additional depth and context, I’ll also discuss three popular Twitter tickers: CVNA, MSTR, and TSLA, in a post or two later by December 28.
Key Observations: VIX Behavior
The recent VIX sell-off led to expectations of a continued decline, but instead, we’re seeing signs of a bottoming RSI — an early warning of potential turbulence ahead.
This suggests a possible continuation of the violent correction we’ve seen recently. Today, the VIX flirted with completing a bear flag, which could have driven it lower. However, it fought back and rallied higher instead.
Key Takeaways:
• VIX remains at a critical inflection point.
• Watch closely for signals of increased volatility going into early 2025.
Trend Analysis: SPY ETF
Over the last five months (since August 2nd lows), SPY formed a wedge pattern. However, last week’s sharp correction saw that wedge break down decisively.
Bulls have since failed to reclaim the broken level, confirming a break-and-retest pattern of the wedge.
Key Observations:
• December 5th & 18th Triangle Patterns: These eerie formations preceded sharp corrections and signal continued market instability.
• SPY’s inability to reclaim the wedge may indicate further downside pressure.
Trend Analysis: QQQ ETF
The QQQ chart mirrors SPY almost identically, showing how supposedly independent markets align during or after significant moves. This synchronicity raises concerns for those banking on diversification.
Key Observations:
• QQQ and SPY are moving in lockstep, signaling a lack of market independence.
• Further alignment during corrections could amplify downside risks.
Trend Analysis: IWM ETF
Small caps are struggling. Even with “good news” — potential rate cuts and falling inflation — IWM has remained underperforming.
Key Levels and Patterns:
• Key Weekly Zone to Hold: $162-$245 base breakout area.
• Cup and Handle Formation: While the base is forming, the handle has yet to develop. The $313 target is still in play but faces significant resistance.
• Bearish EMA Crossover: Currently developing a 5 & 9 EMA death cross, which could signal further downside.
Key Takeaway:
IWM’s weakness suggests broader market hesitancy in risk-on assets, despite macro improvements.
Stay Tuned
Later today, I’ll share more detailed insights into CVNA, MSTR, and TSLA, breaking down their price action and what they might signal for 2025.
If you found this useful, leave a like, comment, or reply with your thoughts or questions!
Thanks for reading,
Coi Lemard
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