Long Bond to SPY Ratio
Above is a look at the 10 yr Bond prices relative to S&P 500. The purpose isn't to look for an exact top where prices or the ratio trend may reverse but instead to see where we've been in the past and where we are at currently. Breaks in the long term down trend of this ratio have lead to large moves in the SPY, however, determining those breaks in the trend are likely easier to do in hindsight.
Its possible we are at or near breaking the current trend but again maybe the ratio continues to goes lower. In fact just recently the ratio made new lows during the month of November (lower than both 2000 and 2007). For now its worth watching the current trend that has developed from 2011. During the pull back in Oct, the ratio moved up to touch this trend and reversed lower after that touch.
Its possible we are at or near breaking the current trend but again maybe the ratio continues to goes lower. In fact just recently the ratio made new lows during the month of November (lower than both 2000 and 2007). For now its worth watching the current trend that has developed from 2011. During the pull back in Oct, the ratio moved up to touch this trend and reversed lower after that touch.
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