Our opinion on the current state of SIRIUS(SRE)

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Sirius (SRE) is a real estate investment trust (REIT), listed on the JSE and the London Stock Exchange (LSE), which specialises in office, manufacturing, and warehousing properties in Germany.

The company owns 141 assets with a book value of about 2bn euros. Obviously, this is a well-managed and growing rand-hedge which was benefiting directly from the recovery of the German economy before COVID-19.

The company has formed a joint venture (JV) with AXA Investment Managers in terms of which AXA will own 65% and Sirius will own 35%. The JV (called "Titanium") acquired 5 business parks from Sirius for 168m euros – which is a 19% premium to their book value. The JV will allow Sirius to double the value of its assets over the next two years.

In its results for the six months to 30th September 2024 the company reported funds from operations up 14,5% and a loan-to-value (LTV) of 30,5%. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) fell 1,7%. The company said, "With nearly €300m of cash and a healthy net LTV ratio of 30.5%, we have significant sufficient firepower to act opportunistically and make earnings accretive acquisitions as they arise."

In an update on the year to 31st March 2025 the company reported that the group like-for-like rent roll was up 6,3% and that it expected to announce a "...positive valuation movement" at year-end.

Technically the share was falling and we recommended applying a trendline and waiting for a convincing upward break. That break came on 17th November 2022 at a price of 1622c and the share then moved up to 2396c before beginning what looks like a new downtrend.

At current levels, it is on an earnings multiple of 14,02 – which makes it one of the most highly rated REITs on the JSE and therefore vulnerable. It is also, obviously, a rand hedge.

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