Straits Times IndexShort
3rd round of bazooka stimulus for Singapore announced !
Updated
Read the latest news here.
Round 1 : Unity budget - S$6.4 billion
Round 2 : Resilience budget - S$48 billion
Round 3 : Solidarity budget - S$???? billion
Implication : Government would have access to data that we retail traders will never have. This, of course is top level information accessible by high level government officials.
Guys, think about it. What is missing thus far on the news headline but brewing beneath as in already happening ? That's right, companies filing for bankruptcies. It doesn't take too long to figure this out. Imagine running a multi-chain restaurants in Singapore and now Government is saying only takeaway no more dining in effective 7 April 2020. What will you do to the excess workers in your restaurants ? How are you going to pay the rentals and other operating costs ? Read this article here to see the seriousness of this circuit breaker.
I am still bearish on STI for the short to mid term and the global macro environment is not doing well and this will affect Singapore F&B scene as well. With people now being asked to stay at home, dine-in restaurants will be hit hard ! Delivery or takeaway for most of them is a supplementary business and now it looks like is going to be their main revenue generator if they succeed in it.
F&B counters worth looking at include ABR Holdings (owns Swensen Restaurant), Japan Food Holdings, Jumbo, etc.
My mind is racing just thinking of the direct and indirect business that will be affected by this circuit breaker. One way or another, the disruption is damaging and I think the trading scene is going to remain ugly for a while....
Round 1 : Unity budget - S$6.4 billion
Round 2 : Resilience budget - S$48 billion
Round 3 : Solidarity budget - S$???? billion
Implication : Government would have access to data that we retail traders will never have. This, of course is top level information accessible by high level government officials.
Guys, think about it. What is missing thus far on the news headline but brewing beneath as in already happening ? That's right, companies filing for bankruptcies. It doesn't take too long to figure this out. Imagine running a multi-chain restaurants in Singapore and now Government is saying only takeaway no more dining in effective 7 April 2020. What will you do to the excess workers in your restaurants ? How are you going to pay the rentals and other operating costs ? Read this article here to see the seriousness of this circuit breaker.
I am still bearish on STI for the short to mid term and the global macro environment is not doing well and this will affect Singapore F&B scene as well. With people now being asked to stay at home, dine-in restaurants will be hit hard ! Delivery or takeaway for most of them is a supplementary business and now it looks like is going to be their main revenue generator if they succeed in it.
F&B counters worth looking at include ABR Holdings (owns Swensen Restaurant), Japan Food Holdings, Jumbo, etc.
My mind is racing just thinking of the direct and indirect business that will be affected by this circuit breaker. One way or another, the disruption is damaging and I think the trading scene is going to remain ugly for a while....
Trade active
we are taking a nibble to long STI as it has broken out of the rectangle.Note
scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3078199/coronavirus-singapore-100-1000-infections-one-monthNow I know what you are thinking, how can the number of cases increase and yet the stock market continue to go up ? Puzzled? Confused?
See the DJI, Nasdaq, SPX500 ,etc they are all behaving the same patterns as well especially US with its high unemployment rates and high number of Covid cases.
All eyes are on this Fri China GDP data and US jobless claims. Watch your positions now.
Note
cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-singapore-extends-circuit-breaker-measures-until-june-1.htmlTrust me, it is no fun staying at home and not able to go about your usual life. Now with the extend circuit breaker, I anticipate the STI is going to head further south. Chart wise, we can see the resistance at 2646.11 and the several bearish candles that conform it. With yesterday US indices down 3% or more, STI is going to be hammered later when it opens the market.
Note
cnbc.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-singapore-is-not-halfway-through-outbreak-says-minister.htmlOne thing I have learnt -
The stock market is made up of supply and demand that drives up the stock price. Fundamentals may be haywire for some companies but so long the demand is there, it will keep on drives up the price. That is why they say stock market can remain irrational for a long time.
Don't try to rationalise with the market like why GDP falls, unemployment goes up , recession, Covid-19 cases escalating and yet market continues to go up......
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