SUI’s movement is rapid, sharp swings—both up and down. In volatile conditions like this, we aim 0.702–0.786 fib retracements (and occasionally 0.886 in harmonic contexts) for high‑probability entries. Below is a clear, Elliott-focused breakdown of the current setup and both long and short trade plans.
Before diving into the charts, let’s cover the basics of Elliott Wave Theory. Elliott Wave Theory provides a roadmap for market psychology by dividing price action into two distinct phases:
1. Impulse Phase (Waves 1–5)
2. Corrective Phase (Waves A–B–C)
Key Points:
In the current SUI structure:
Now, we’re deep into Wave 4, likely an ABC corrective pattern. This pause is critical—it gathers energy before the final push of Wave 5. Below is a clear breakdown of each wave, big-picture confluences, and trade setups.
🚀 Elliott Wave Overview
1. Wave 1 & Wave 2
2. Wave 3: The Power Move
Significance: In strong bull markets, a run to the 2.618 extension often precedes a meaningful pullback. Here, Wave 3’s exhaustion suggests a retrace toward the 38.2% Fib of that advance—our ideal Wave 4 entry zone.
3. Wave 4: The Correction
4. Wave 5: The Finale
Extension Levels:
🔑 Key Confluence Levels
📈 Long Trade Setup
📉 Short Trade Setup
⚙️ Summary & Game Plan
All set—now let SUI’s swings unveil the opportunities. Sit tight, follow your plan, and let patience pay its dividend.
Happy Trading!
____________________________________
If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Before diving into the charts, let’s cover the basics of Elliott Wave Theory. Elliott Wave Theory provides a roadmap for market psychology by dividing price action into two distinct phases:
1. Impulse Phase (Waves 1–5)
- Wave 1: The spark that ignites a new trend as early adopters push prices beyond the prior range.
- Wave 2: A corrective pullback that tests the strength of the emerging trend, often retracing 38–61.8%.
- Wave 3: The powerhouse wave—typically the longest and most dynamic—driven by broad market participation and often extending to key Fibonacci levels (1.618, 2.618).
- Wave 4: A consolidating correction that digests gains and builds the base for the final thrust; it must not overlap Wave 1 territory in a classic impulse.
- Wave 5: The final leg of the advance, often fueled by last bursts of optimism and weaker hands.
2. Corrective Phase (Waves A–B–C)
- Wave A: Initial counter-trend reaction as profit-taking begins.
- Wave B: A deceptive retracement back toward the trend, frequently trapping traders.
- Wave C: The concluding leg of the correction, which typically tests or breaks the low of Wave A before the next cycle begins.
Key Points:
- Impulse waves showcase momentum and structural clarity, often aligning with Fibonacci extensions.
- Corrective waves follow Fibonacci retracements (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%), offering optimal entry points.
- Wave 3 is seldom the shortest; Wave 4’s complexity sets the stage for Wave 5’s final push.
In the current SUI structure:
- Wave 1 ignited the initial rally.
- Wave 2 delivered a healthy retracement, a pullback close to the 0.618 fib, setting the stage for stronger momentum.
- Wave 3 roared to a powerful peak topped at the 2.618 extension ($3.875)
Now, we’re deep into Wave 4, likely an ABC corrective pattern. This pause is critical—it gathers energy before the final push of Wave 5. Below is a clear breakdown of each wave, big-picture confluences, and trade setups.
🚀 Elliott Wave Overview
1. Wave 1 & Wave 2
- Wave 1: Quick surge from $2.4175 → $2.75, setting initial momentum.
- Wave 2: Pulled back close to the 0.618 fib, creating a solid launchpad.
2. Wave 3: The Power Move
- Peak: Hit the 2.618 extension of Wave 1→2 and aligned with the –2 extension of Wave 1.
Significance: In strong bull markets, a run to the 2.618 extension often precedes a meaningful pullback. Here, Wave 3’s exhaustion suggests a retrace toward the 38.2% Fib of that advance—our ideal Wave 4 entry zone.
3. Wave 4: The Correction
- All eyes on the $3.17 level—the projected 1:1 extension of A→B and 0.382 fib retracement of Wave 3. This confluence zone is yet to be tested and could offer an ideal Wave 4 entry.
- ABC Pattern: Currently working on Wave C.
4. Wave 5: The Finale
- Target Zone: $4.00–$4.35, with strong focus at $4.31
Extension Levels:
- 1.133 → $3.9695 aligns with the 0.618 fib retracement.
- 1.272 → $4.0683 is close to the weekly resistance level.
- 1.412 → $4.1678 alings with the 0.666 fib retracement.
- 1.618 → $4.3142 alings with the key swing high.
🔑 Key Confluence Levels
- Golden Pocket: $3.9739–$4.1492 (90-day retrace).
- Speed Fan 0.618: Support around $3.15.
- Fair Value Gap:
- Psychological: $3.00 major support.
📈 Long Trade Setup
- Entry Ladder: $3.25–$3.111 (stack orders to DCA)
- Stop‑Loss: $3.07 (just below the 0.786 Fib low)
- Profit Targets:
- Fib 1.133 at $3.9795 ($4 psychological & partial take‑profit)
- Fib 1.272 at $4.0683
- Fib 1.412 at $4.1678
- Fib 1.618 at $4.3142
- Risk:Reward: ~6:1+ (average entry around $3.20 → SL at $3.07 → TP1 at $3.9795)
📉 Short Trade Setup
- Entry Zone: $4.00–$4.35 (sweet spot at weekly level/yearly open)
- Confirmation: Bearish reversal candle or volume spike down
- Stop‑Loss: Above $4.35
- Target: $3.77 (near Wave 3 high turned support)
- Risk:Reward: ~2:1 (varies with DCA entry)
⚙️ Summary & Game Plan
- Primary Bias: Long in the $3.25–$3.111 zone—stack into the 0.382-0.412 fib retracement entries with tight SL, aiming for the $4.00–$4.30 upside zone.
- Alternate Bias: Short on a clear rejection within $4.00–$4.35, targeting $3.77 or lower.
- Risk Management: Keep stops tight to maximize R:R.
- Patience & Confirmation: Wait for price to reach these zones and show reversal signals (price action, volume, patterns) before committing.
All set—now let SUI’s swings unveil the opportunities. Sit tight, follow your plan, and let patience pay its dividend.
Happy Trading!
____________________________________
If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Trade active
After tagging the 2.618 trend‑based extension at $4.0886, SUI is behaving exactly like we seen before and here’s why it tends to revisit the 1.618 level before the final thrust:1. Profit‑Taking and Liquidity Grabs
When price first pierces the 2.618 extension, many traders lock in gains. That selling pressure pulls price back toward the more “comfortable” 1.618 zone, where a fresh wave of buy orders tends to stack up. This creates enough support for Wave 4 to form its base.
2. Trend‑Based Fib + Fib Retracement
Fib Extension (Wave 1→2): Drawing a trend‑based Fib from Wave 1 to Wave 2 and projecting Wave 3 peak gave us the 2.618 at $4.0886, and rejected as expected as this was a sweet spot for short traders.
Fib Retracement (Wave 3): If we use the Fib Retracement 0.382 for Wave 3, it naturally aligns with the 1.618 level (our next support magnet) right around $3.77. The exact point where buyers re‑enter in strong trends.
3. Wave Structure Symmetry
In extended impulses, Wave 3 often overshoots into the 2.618–3.618 band. Wave 4, by Elliott rules, then typically retraces into 0.382–0.618 of Wave 3 or, in trend‑based terms, “retests” the earlier 1.618 extension. It’s the market resetting itself before the final leg.
4. Orderflow & Stop‑Runs
Stops for breakout traders often cluster just under the 1.618 zone. A brief dip flushes those orders, which then fuels the rally of Wave 5 with that liquidity now in the hands of new buyers.
🎯 What to Watch Next
- Primary Support: $3.77 (1.618 trend‑based Fib)
- Confirmation Signal: A bullish candlestick pattern (e.g. hammer or engulfing) + uptick in volume back above $3.8
- Wave 5 Target Zone: $4.30–$4.40
Trade Plan:
- Enter: On a successful retest of $3.77 with clear buying pressure.
- Stop‑Loss: Just below $3.7
- Take‑Profit: Scale out into the $4.30–$4.40 area, locking in at least a 6:1 reward‑to‑risk.
By understanding the choreography between the 2.618 and 1.618 trend‑based levels, you’ll be perfectly positioned to ride SUI’s final Wave 5 surge. Good luck!
Trade closed: target reached
In my previous analysis, the primary bias was to go long between $3.25–$3.111, stacking entries within the 0.382–0.412 Fib retracement zone with tight risk, targeting the $4.00–$4.30 range.That long setup played out with near-perfect precision. Price peaked at $4.274, right in line with the $4.30 target I outlined. All credit to Fibonacci and Elliott Wave Theory.
SUI has been respecting technicals beautifully, and it's been fascinating to watch it unfold. With a clear rejection now seen at $4.274, the alternate short trade setup also came into play. A short entry near $4.20 would have been valid, aiming for $3.77 or lower.
The market delivered both setups exactly as mapped. Precision trading at its finest. On to the next setup! 📉📈
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🏆 Mastering Fibonacci for precision trading
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis!
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.