SUNCAT / USDTLong
SUNCAT Trade Plan (09/12/24)
Updated
Hello! This is my first time sharing ideas, hope it helps!
Assumptions:
1. Bullish market into q1 2025.
2. Awareness of memecoin and risk management.
3. Intended for spot holding/trade.
4. Awareness of broader market and such.
Invalidation:
1. Break of MS.
2. Tier 1 CEX listing Hype.
3. Broader market extreme bearishness.
Applied analysis:
1. ICT
a. Liquidity:
BSL: Heavy sell pressure >$0.006-$0.007, tested multiple times in D1. Watch for breakout/fakeout.
SSL: D1 EQ zone ($0.00465-$0.0049) and H2-H4 SSL OTE ($0.0040-$0.0042). Potential for deeper sweep/MM testing S-D, deeper liq. grab of these levels followed by a strong rejection could confirm a bullish OB.
b. Order Blocks:
Bullish OB: Anything below $0.0049 into lowest zone of $0.0027-$0.0034 (PWL/PML) without invalidating MS, align with a swing low.
Bearish OB: $0.0061-$0.0062 (PMH), likely to act as resistance unless volume and momentum break through convincingly.
c. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
H4: $0.004-$0.0045.
D1: $0.0035-$0.004.
Might be visited, might be not.
d. Market Structure:
LTF indicate potential consolidation -> accumulation. A breakout above $0.007 would mark a BOS into higher timeframe bullishness.
Observed EQH = 0.007-0.00691
Observed EQL = ~0.003
Potential EQL = ~0.004-0.0045.
Failed to break EQL/EQH would result in prolonged ping-pong.
2. Candle Pattern:
Not my forte, but watch for hard price rejection (long wick down/up), reversal candle, or bullish continuation e.q. morning star/engulfing/hammer on HTF or near OB/liquidity.
3. Fib Analysis:
Use log price and log fib or vice versa, fib method should follow the primary price setting whether log price or not.
4. Technical Indicators:
Use your most comfortable indicators, watch any reversal/bull div. signal.
5. Price Action Simulations & Market Phases (Wyckoff and Elliott):
a. Wyckoff Accumulation:
Current: MS resembles Phase C testing (HH-HL testing, tests the supply/demand balance, spring/shakeout).
Next: Wyckoff Phase D and Phase E.
Target Phase D: $0.007-$0.0085 post $0.007 breakout, as it corresponds to breaking local highs and entering the markup phase, see PA LL at 1 Sep 24 - 23 Sep 24.
Target Phase E: $0.012-$0.015, sustained markup and distribution into higher levels. Coincides with historical resistance, fib extensions, and next liquidity zones.
Retracement Reentry Zone (Post-Markup):
Somewhere midpoint (EQ) of Phase D/E markup. Watch for SOS, BU/LPS formation in Phase D.
b. Elliott Wave:
Wave 1 target: completed ($0.0027-$0.007), currently forming retracement Wave 2.
Wave 3 target: $0.0085-$0.012 based on Fib extensions (161.8%-2.618% fib wave 1).
Conservative Wave 3: $0.0085-$0.009. Confluences with Phase D Wyckoff.
Optimistic Wave 3: $0.012-$0.013. Confluences with Phase E Wyckoff.
Wave 4 target: typically retraces 38.2%-50% of Wave 3. So watch the completion of wave 3 peak signaled by multiple rejections at resistance.
Reentry after Wave 4: $0.007-$0.0085, matching Wyckoff Phase E retracement.
Watch formations of HL and volume during this phase.
Wave 5 target: usually extends to 127.2%-161.8% fib of Wave 4 retracement or 361.8% extension of Wave 1. Keep watch of Wave 4 bottom. Could easily breach $0.015 zone (~15 mil MCap) into $0.03 (~30 mil MCap) or >100 mil MCap.
Summary of Targets & Reentries:
Phase D Target: $0.007-$0.0085.
Phase E Target: $0.012-$0.015.
Wave 3 Target: $0.0085-$0.013.
Wave 4 Reentry: $0.007-$0.0085.
Wave 5 Target: $0.015-$0.03.
Marked in the chart. Anything below $0.006 (6 mil MCap) is a good buy zone for medium-long term.
This SUNCAT PA has high confluence between Wyckoff and Elliott theories. Good coin to hold/trade.
NFA. DYOR. Good Luck!
Assumptions:
1. Bullish market into q1 2025.
2. Awareness of memecoin and risk management.
3. Intended for spot holding/trade.
4. Awareness of broader market and such.
Invalidation:
1. Break of MS.
2. Tier 1 CEX listing Hype.
3. Broader market extreme bearishness.
Applied analysis:
1. ICT
a. Liquidity:
BSL: Heavy sell pressure >$0.006-$0.007, tested multiple times in D1. Watch for breakout/fakeout.
SSL: D1 EQ zone ($0.00465-$0.0049) and H2-H4 SSL OTE ($0.0040-$0.0042). Potential for deeper sweep/MM testing S-D, deeper liq. grab of these levels followed by a strong rejection could confirm a bullish OB.
b. Order Blocks:
Bullish OB: Anything below $0.0049 into lowest zone of $0.0027-$0.0034 (PWL/PML) without invalidating MS, align with a swing low.
Bearish OB: $0.0061-$0.0062 (PMH), likely to act as resistance unless volume and momentum break through convincingly.
c. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
H4: $0.004-$0.0045.
D1: $0.0035-$0.004.
Might be visited, might be not.
d. Market Structure:
LTF indicate potential consolidation -> accumulation. A breakout above $0.007 would mark a BOS into higher timeframe bullishness.
Observed EQH = 0.007-0.00691
Observed EQL = ~0.003
Potential EQL = ~0.004-0.0045.
Failed to break EQL/EQH would result in prolonged ping-pong.
2. Candle Pattern:
Not my forte, but watch for hard price rejection (long wick down/up), reversal candle, or bullish continuation e.q. morning star/engulfing/hammer on HTF or near OB/liquidity.
3. Fib Analysis:
Use log price and log fib or vice versa, fib method should follow the primary price setting whether log price or not.
4. Technical Indicators:
Use your most comfortable indicators, watch any reversal/bull div. signal.
5. Price Action Simulations & Market Phases (Wyckoff and Elliott):
a. Wyckoff Accumulation:
Current: MS resembles Phase C testing (HH-HL testing, tests the supply/demand balance, spring/shakeout).
Next: Wyckoff Phase D and Phase E.
Target Phase D: $0.007-$0.0085 post $0.007 breakout, as it corresponds to breaking local highs and entering the markup phase, see PA LL at 1 Sep 24 - 23 Sep 24.
Target Phase E: $0.012-$0.015, sustained markup and distribution into higher levels. Coincides with historical resistance, fib extensions, and next liquidity zones.
Retracement Reentry Zone (Post-Markup):
Somewhere midpoint (EQ) of Phase D/E markup. Watch for SOS, BU/LPS formation in Phase D.
b. Elliott Wave:
Wave 1 target: completed ($0.0027-$0.007), currently forming retracement Wave 2.
Wave 3 target: $0.0085-$0.012 based on Fib extensions (161.8%-2.618% fib wave 1).
Conservative Wave 3: $0.0085-$0.009. Confluences with Phase D Wyckoff.
Optimistic Wave 3: $0.012-$0.013. Confluences with Phase E Wyckoff.
Wave 4 target: typically retraces 38.2%-50% of Wave 3. So watch the completion of wave 3 peak signaled by multiple rejections at resistance.
Reentry after Wave 4: $0.007-$0.0085, matching Wyckoff Phase E retracement.
Watch formations of HL and volume during this phase.
Wave 5 target: usually extends to 127.2%-161.8% fib of Wave 4 retracement or 361.8% extension of Wave 1. Keep watch of Wave 4 bottom. Could easily breach $0.015 zone (~15 mil MCap) into $0.03 (~30 mil MCap) or >100 mil MCap.
Summary of Targets & Reentries:
Phase D Target: $0.007-$0.0085.
Phase E Target: $0.012-$0.015.
Wave 3 Target: $0.0085-$0.013.
Wave 4 Reentry: $0.007-$0.0085.
Wave 5 Target: $0.015-$0.03.
Marked in the chart. Anything below $0.006 (6 mil MCap) is a good buy zone for medium-long term.
This SUNCAT PA has high confluence between Wyckoff and Elliott theories. Good coin to hold/trade.
NFA. DYOR. Good Luck!
Trade active
Note
As per usual, for DCA use cascading buy order, set tight TP/SL for higher price zone based on your risk tolerance and trading style, re entry at lower price once price stabilizes in HTF should be safe. This way, you should be able to minimize your realized loss and optimize your returns (parabolic/god candle moves included).
Follow your own risk management for max drawdown (MDD) tolerance and other metrics.
Dont overcommit, use ~5% of your portfolio to see if this coin suit your taste.
IMHO, this is one of those micro cap meme coin with good potential in this bull run.
Note
-Updated personal take:
Price developing nicely. This ecosystem has good MM/Dealer, I personally think this has at least intermediate-advanced MM level in terms of experience so to speak. Furthermore, IF there are any whales/teams behind this, they followed similar stance as MM, likely as partners and not counteracting each other. Communities and holders looking solid. Healthy developing market phase is one of major indicators among many metrics.
-A bit deeper technical side:
Visible controlled supply dynamics and it is expected in early-stages token-ecosystem mainly driven by MM, S-D rebalancing (Supply side constraints to create periodic demand pressure - in layman terms = forces healthy pullback), and ecosystem interplay dynamics.
-Possible future path:
I would deem this stage as laying the groundwork. At the moment, current MM leans on the trustworthy side. Methodical and calculated influence unveil the directions toward growth and building credibility, good in the longer terms sustainability.
Speculative take: possibly preparing for something bigger, perhaps cross-ecosystem integration or higher-tier CEX listings.
I would advise to read on how generally CEX divided into several Tier and how their listing process work.
-Positioning:
I am moving up 35% staggered buy order into 0.0037-0.0045 zone. Rest 15% for unexpected deeper grab, if any.
Note
-Similarities:
SUNCAT may act as frontrunner or lagging price movement of these tokens:
COQ, MOODENG, PONKE, SUN, NEIRO, MOG, BRETT, MEW, TURBO, POPCAT, BABYDOGE
-Tip:
Pay attention to MCap, Vol, FDV, and Vol/MCap trends. Declining and stabilizing volume while maintaining the MCap thus price relative to previous data points should tell you something, speculative -> stable holding.
Note
Very good, adding more position, see log fib play.Note
Nice reaction from discount zone (23.6-14.6% fib), a bit higher than expected. Final buy zone already filled, now I hodl.
Merry christmas!
Enjoy your holiday, refrain from peeking your portfolio often as market is quite illiquid among many things.
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