Waiting for a monthly close in SPX above 3250 to buy some T

Updated

Waiting for breakout on a monthly closing basis of SPX to establish a position in this stock which I think is undervalued and pays a nice dividend. However, if SPX can't make a new all-time high on a monthly closing basis then I think the stock market in general will have a pullback into the presidential election where I could maybe get in this stock at a little bit of a discount from today's price. Even if SPX breaks out this month and reverses (which very well could happen), shouldn't hurt too much..

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Bought yesterday just under $30. I have a tight stop loss but not an open order, instead going on a monthly closing basis so it's more risky but also won't necessarily get stopped out by a head fake - my stop loss is a monthly close below the long-term uptrend support line (which as of August 2020 would be a monthly close below $29).

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Price is really looking like it wants to break down but I'm still in for now... (Previous times that price got near the uptrend line it didn't spend much time there, unlike this time where it's just barely staying above it.) Depending on how fast it drops if it breaks down I might not be able to get out since my stop loss is on a daily closing basis. I may consider just adding to my position depending on how far and fast it drops (if that happens). I know this company has paid out a lot in dividends over the past decade, but price is currently only about 23% above the '08-'09 lows. If price were to breakdown, I wouldn't expect it to go too far, maybe $24 to potentially as low as $20 and I would expect strong support if it got that low because that would be the lows it put in after the tech bubble crash and also just below the lows it put in at the height of the "great recession".

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Unless price can recover above the trend line today, I will take the signal and get out with a minimal loss as I think price could fall further in the coming months. I would look for re-entry around $24 (if price gets there), price could also fall as low as $20 but I don't see it going further than that, which I've alluded to above. (Anything could happen but I would expect strong support at those levels.) Just my thoughts and notes about what I'm doing and I'm by no means an expert, therefore trade at your own risk.

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Looking to re-enter if price can make a monthly close back above the trend line, appears it may have been just a fake out but I thought the monthly closing breakdown was more definitive and decided to get out to avoid a collapse and potentially get back in at lower prices. Anyway, little damage done and I can potentially get back in near where I sold out as this stock doesn't tend to move much each month, but waiting until end of the month to decide on a more clear signal. Also, please refer to recent post by AidanMDang, I like his chart better as well as his thoughts about why this stock can make a rise to the top of the pattern he indicated.

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This is a classic example of why I wait for a monthly close. I will continue to wait until price can make a monthly close back above the trendline to get back in, but hopefully there will be a shakeout and I can get in at lower prices. Anyway, I will let the market tell me what to do because I have no idea what will happen.

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Updated chart (below). Blue uptrend line is the line I set that is based on monthly closing basis price. The white uptrend line below it is based on ultimate lows it hit mid-months. It really feels like they (whoever they is) want to break this down and buy more shares up cheap. I'm either waiting for that to happen so I can get in as well or I'm waiting for a monthly close back above the blue line to give me a signal to get back in.

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Reopened a small position to start getting some of the dividend. Will buy more if I get my signal - a monthly close above the blue uptrend line in the chart above or else if "they" take it down I'll buy more at $24 and then $20. I have not stop loss this time, holding long-term and will just buy up more shares if it goes down.

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Bought more on a monthly close above the blue trend line, which is a monthly closing price trendline (other than the recent what appears to be fakeout to the downside, at least as of now, it may yet prove to be an early warning sign but time will tell).

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Looking good so far, but major hurdles to clear soon in the 200-mo. and 50-mo. EMAs. If it can get past those on a monthly closing basis I will probably buy more.

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Plan is to sell some shares (maybe 1/3 or half of my position) around $45 where I expect there to be some resistance and could buy back on a potential pullback. Ultimate target for this trade is at least getting the upper $50's, which was the all-time high set during the tech bubble. I think if this can get back up there it will eventually surpass that but might run into some pretty heavy resistance initially. I would probably sell some of my position again at that price level in hopes for a pullback and then look for an opportunity to buy back in to ride it potentially higher. Just wanted to make these notes in here so I remember my strategy.

**This is just what I'm personally considering doing and doesn't take into account the fundamentals of this company at all. I'm just throwing targets out there based on the chart pattern and what I've seen happen in other stocks over time. Doesn't mean AT&T will do the same. Therefore, if you decide to follow any of this please trade at your own risk.**

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Updated chart below, still holding and waiting. If price goes down and touches the long-term uptrend line I will add some more but hold some back in case it breaks down even further. Otherwise I'm waiting for a monthly close above the 200-mo. and 50-mo. EMAs to add some more. Reinvesting dividends in the position I have started in this in the meantime.

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I like to wait for monthly closing prices to act on and as you can see in the chart, that strategy saved me from adding as price temporarily made it above the EMAs mid -month in May 2021 only to end up closing below them and has fallen a little further since then. Using the monthly close strategy has saved me from several false breakouts in the past but I've also missed out on some trades as well that ended up taking off mid-month. I guess it just makes me be more patient and I can think about a trade more before entering which is why I like it but it's not the end all be all is what I'm trying to say. Anyway, in this case it worked out well.

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Here is a chart of T adjusted for dividends based on a recent idea I read. Much different story. Price may end up finding support at the 200-mo. EMA on this new chart. Thanks for ChristopherCarrollSmith's idea to realize this!

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I'll continue to hold but would be looking to add significantly more shares if it can get down to the 200-mo. EMA adjusted for dividends.

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The last time that it touched the 200-mo. EMA on the new chart was in March 2009, I expect support would hold there but it could definitely dip below it a bit too.

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Price is nearly at the 200-mo. EMA on the new chart (adjusted for dividends), it could dip slightly below but I should probably just buy some more shares and not be greedy. However, I like to wait until the end of the month so that's what I'm going to do with this and I'll probably buy some more shares then. As you can see in the chart below, price has always found support at the 200-mo. EMA (as far back as data is available). Past performance isn't a guarantee of future results but I think this is a good place to at least average down, could definitely head lower though, it if does would try to find a place to average down even more but would probably wait a while.

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Most of my trend lines are from the old chart, I left them in so that they are still there when I switch the chart back to the chart not adjusted for dividends, but I think the new chart is more appropriate since the dividend is approaching 10% of price, which is crazy! (that either means we are getting to pretty oversold levels, or a dividend cut is coming soon. (I'm continuing to average down by reinvesting quarterly dividends as well.)

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Nice short-term bounce off the 200-mo. EMA. Based on what it has done in the past I would expect a retest of the 200-mo. EMA over the next few months (definitely doesn't have to and the bottom may already be in, but both times it touched the 200-mo. EMA in the past it retested a few months later).

Order cancelled

Haven't updated this in a while.. I actually just sold out of this even though price did in fact retest the 200-mo. EMA and actually broke slightly below. I sold out because it appears the major U.S. stock indices may test their 200-mo. EMAs and, if so, that would continue to drag this stock down even lower. I'm not sure if I'll re-enter this eventually, it would be a screaming value at $10 or below and hard not to buy back in if it gets around that level. But I may just use pool this money with some other stocks I've sold out of lately and buy a low cost index fund and just ride the market.

PatientContrarian

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