SPY QQQ DJI , Are We heading into a recession?
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fell over 20% since January of this year, and many are questioning whether the recent bull rally is an indication that the market may have bottomed, and if we are now recovering. Even with the fed announcing a 75bps rate hike this week, and a second consecutive quarter with negative GDP report, the market has gained over 6% just this week. Anyone can find a perma bull or perma bear argument and run with it, however I like to use historical data and context to give us an idea of what may possibly occur. So I compared the 10Y-2Y bond yield spread to see what has happened in the past, relative to the S&P500. The conclusion I came away with, is that there has not been a time when the 10Y-2Y bond yield has inverted, without a recession following it. The question is how long did it take for the full blown recession to occur, and that's the challenging part, and there is no way to predict when the actual recession will occur based on history. For example the three recessions that occurred most recently were the .com bubble, the great financial crisis of 2008, and most recently the mini Pandemic recession of 2020. All three times the chart showed clear inversions between the 10Y 2Y bond yield curve. In March of 2000 the spread between the 10Y bond yield and 2Y was -50 at the bottom of the inversion, and it took about 189 days before the stock market crashed. In 2006 the inversion bottomed around feb 2006, and the 10-2y spread was about -20, (which is actually where it stands today), and the stock market did not crash or feel the effects for another 500 days give or take. In 2020 the inversion bottomed around July of 2019 and the spread got as low as -.02, and the market collapsed in March of 2020 (many still question how the bond yields could have predicted the pandemic) nonetheless, this chart has proven to be a great predictor of recessions. So to sum it all up, using just technical analysis (the marco supports this but that another topic for another day), shows that the likelihood of another recession occurring is more likely then not, whether it will occur in a few weeks, months, or even years is the question, so I urge every trader to just keep this in mind its okay to go with the trend and make some money, however just be very cautious with your assets and keep this in mind. Best of Luck to all.
This is NOT financial advice just my personal ideas.
This is NOT financial advice just my personal ideas.
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