Tron Bull / USDTLong
TBULL Trade Plan (11/12/24)
Updated
Hello!
This is my second Tron meme coins I've analyzed, because why not?
Amidst broader alt market bleeds and uncertainty, I hope this you will find this informative to help in navigating the market!
Assumptions:
1. Intended for spot holding/trade.
2. Bullish market into Q1 2025.
3. Robust against sudden dumps.
4. Understanding of memecoin and risk management.
5. Awareness of broader market, macroeconomics, and geopolitcs at play.
Invalidations:
1. Breakdown and invalidation of current MS.
2. Tier 1 CEX listing Hype, if any.
3. Broader market extreme bearishness and unexpected turns.
Lets start with broader aspects:
1. FDV and Vol/Market Cap:
The coin indicates undergoing of correction phase after a parabolic rise in W1 December. Consider the consistent declining Vol, MCap, and OHLC --> shift from speculative to profit taking by earlier holders. Good for start of reaccumulation as shown by interest and liquidity albeit a bit volatile. Check the historical data and DYOR for this.
2. On going war in Middle East.
3. Google Willow quantum chip.
4. Geopolitics and dynamics between world's big bois.
5. Best to read 2-4 and DYOR, use AI for easier time summarizing info.
Applied analysis:
1. ICT
a. Liquidity:
BSL:
H4: 0.0165-0.0185 (50% fib).
D1: 0.021-0.023 (23.6% fib).
SSL:
H4: 0.0136-0.0145 (golden pocket) & 0.0112-0.0125 (78.6%-85.4% fib, reversal zone).
D1: 0.014-0.015 (golden pocket) 0.01-0.013 (78.6%-85.4% fib, reversal zone, MS last defense, and low swing).
Potential for quick deep liq. sweep at H4/MM testing S-D, deeper liq. grab of these levels followed by a strong rejection could confirm a bullish OB.
b. Order Blocks (Paired with VPVR):
Bullish OB/Demand zone:
H4-D1: 0.01-0.0137 (78.6%-85.4% fib)
Bearish OB/Supply zone:
H4: 0.017-0.0185 (50% fib)
D1: 0.0195-0.0205 (23.6% fib)
c. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
H4: 0.0123-0.0136.
Once current trading range broken down, expect price to revisit here.
d. Market Structure:
Premium-EQ-discount zone, HL-HH-LH-LL, PDH-PDL-PWH-PWL, BOS, and CHOCH as marked in the D1 chart.
LTF-HTF indicate potential consolidation -> accumulation. A breakout above $0.03 would mark a BOS into higher timeframe bullishness.
Observed EQH formed = ~0.0295.
Observed EQL formed = ~0.01-0.0105 by 0.25 threshold.
Potential EQL formed = ~0.012-0.014.
2. Candle Pattern:
Watch formation of hard price rejection (long wick down/up), reversal candle, or bullish continuation i.e. morning star/engulfing/hammer on HTF or near OB/liquidity.
3. Fib Analysis:
Use log price and log fib or vice versa, fib levels marked in the chart uses log fib-log price.
4. Technical Indicators:
Use your most comfortable indicators, watch any reversal/bull div. signal or trend strength and continuations. EMA 50-100-200 could act as resistance/support.
5. Market Phase Interpretation (Wyckoff and Elliott):
a. Wyckoff Accumulation:
The PA seems to be in the late phase D Wyckoff Accum.
b. Elliott Wave:
My interpretation on this is ABCDE ascending triangle if H4 SSL (demand zone) holds, invalidated upon support convincing breakdown.
c. Blending Wyckoff and Elliott:
Wyckoff Phase D and Elliott Wave ABCDE Triangle usually share overlapping characteristics i.e. aligns with re accumulation market, indicating consolidation before a markup phase.
Wave C = LPS in Wyckoff in this context. The breakout from wave E correlates with the SOS in Wyckoff’s Phase D. This is what I think, could be false completely.
6. Entries and Take Profit
All marked in the chart. Use fib. extension to gauge the desired price target once breakout from the current D1 premium range confirmed.
NFA. DYOR. Good Luck!
Note:
As per usual, for DCA use cascading buy order, set tight TP/SL for higher price zone based on your risk tolerance and trading style, re entry at lower price once price stabilizes in HTF should be safe. This way, you should be able to minimize your realized loss (i.e. 2-5% or 5-10% SL distance for each staggered entries in spot market) and optimize your returns (parabolic/god candle moves included).
Follow your own risk management for max drawdown (MDD) tolerance and other metrics.
Dont overcommit, use ~5% of your portfolio to see if this coin suit your taste.
This is my second Tron meme coins I've analyzed, because why not?
Amidst broader alt market bleeds and uncertainty, I hope this you will find this informative to help in navigating the market!
Assumptions:
1. Intended for spot holding/trade.
2. Bullish market into Q1 2025.
3. Robust against sudden dumps.
4. Understanding of memecoin and risk management.
5. Awareness of broader market, macroeconomics, and geopolitcs at play.
Invalidations:
1. Breakdown and invalidation of current MS.
2. Tier 1 CEX listing Hype, if any.
3. Broader market extreme bearishness and unexpected turns.
Lets start with broader aspects:
1. FDV and Vol/Market Cap:
The coin indicates undergoing of correction phase after a parabolic rise in W1 December. Consider the consistent declining Vol, MCap, and OHLC --> shift from speculative to profit taking by earlier holders. Good for start of reaccumulation as shown by interest and liquidity albeit a bit volatile. Check the historical data and DYOR for this.
2. On going war in Middle East.
3. Google Willow quantum chip.
4. Geopolitics and dynamics between world's big bois.
5. Best to read 2-4 and DYOR, use AI for easier time summarizing info.
Applied analysis:
1. ICT
a. Liquidity:
BSL:
H4: 0.0165-0.0185 (50% fib).
D1: 0.021-0.023 (23.6% fib).
SSL:
H4: 0.0136-0.0145 (golden pocket) & 0.0112-0.0125 (78.6%-85.4% fib, reversal zone).
D1: 0.014-0.015 (golden pocket) 0.01-0.013 (78.6%-85.4% fib, reversal zone, MS last defense, and low swing).
Potential for quick deep liq. sweep at H4/MM testing S-D, deeper liq. grab of these levels followed by a strong rejection could confirm a bullish OB.
b. Order Blocks (Paired with VPVR):
Bullish OB/Demand zone:
H4-D1: 0.01-0.0137 (78.6%-85.4% fib)
Bearish OB/Supply zone:
H4: 0.017-0.0185 (50% fib)
D1: 0.0195-0.0205 (23.6% fib)
c. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
H4: 0.0123-0.0136.
Once current trading range broken down, expect price to revisit here.
d. Market Structure:
Premium-EQ-discount zone, HL-HH-LH-LL, PDH-PDL-PWH-PWL, BOS, and CHOCH as marked in the D1 chart.
LTF-HTF indicate potential consolidation -> accumulation. A breakout above $0.03 would mark a BOS into higher timeframe bullishness.
Observed EQH formed = ~0.0295.
Observed EQL formed = ~0.01-0.0105 by 0.25 threshold.
Potential EQL formed = ~0.012-0.014.
2. Candle Pattern:
Watch formation of hard price rejection (long wick down/up), reversal candle, or bullish continuation i.e. morning star/engulfing/hammer on HTF or near OB/liquidity.
3. Fib Analysis:
Use log price and log fib or vice versa, fib levels marked in the chart uses log fib-log price.
4. Technical Indicators:
Use your most comfortable indicators, watch any reversal/bull div. signal or trend strength and continuations. EMA 50-100-200 could act as resistance/support.
5. Market Phase Interpretation (Wyckoff and Elliott):
a. Wyckoff Accumulation:
The PA seems to be in the late phase D Wyckoff Accum.
b. Elliott Wave:
My interpretation on this is ABCDE ascending triangle if H4 SSL (demand zone) holds, invalidated upon support convincing breakdown.
c. Blending Wyckoff and Elliott:
Wyckoff Phase D and Elliott Wave ABCDE Triangle usually share overlapping characteristics i.e. aligns with re accumulation market, indicating consolidation before a markup phase.
Wave C = LPS in Wyckoff in this context. The breakout from wave E correlates with the SOS in Wyckoff’s Phase D. This is what I think, could be false completely.
6. Entries and Take Profit
All marked in the chart. Use fib. extension to gauge the desired price target once breakout from the current D1 premium range confirmed.
NFA. DYOR. Good Luck!
Note:
As per usual, for DCA use cascading buy order, set tight TP/SL for higher price zone based on your risk tolerance and trading style, re entry at lower price once price stabilizes in HTF should be safe. This way, you should be able to minimize your realized loss (i.e. 2-5% or 5-10% SL distance for each staggered entries in spot market) and optimize your returns (parabolic/god candle moves included).
Follow your own risk management for max drawdown (MDD) tolerance and other metrics.
Dont overcommit, use ~5% of your portfolio to see if this coin suit your taste.
Trade active
Small entry.Note
Revision and clarification on Elliott Wave Asc. Triangle Counting.
Pardon me, it seems I've mixed up the bullish ascending triangle with bearish ascending triangle in publishing stage, the analysis still stands as it inferred from correct counting. The correct counting would be:
1. Wave A: 0.010146 at 25 Nov
2. Wave B: 0.029800 at 3-4 Dec (8 days)
3. Wave C: ~0.0139 estimated at 11-13 Dec (8-10 days)
4. Wave D: ~0.0215 estimated at 20-22 Dec (9-11 days)
5. Wave E: ~0.0298 estimated at late Dec 24-Jan 25, contesting local - global high.
Failure to break convincingly would lead to consolidate - reaccumulation. If succeed, use fib.
Note
-Quick comments on recent dump:
I'd like to keep this brief as I don't have much free time as of right now, will update in the near future.
1. Invalidation of elliott bullish asc. triangle.
2. Very deep liq. grab, D1 9 Nov 24 & PML got tested and rejected hard (very long down wick), The long rejection wick on D1 and LTF signals strong demand near 0.007-0.01, suggesting buyers-likely whales or MM have stepped in to absorb sell pressure.
3. See daily OHLC O: 0.012762 H: 0.013220 L: 0.007010 C: 0.011009. LTF MSS and shift into D1 SSL as we are now hovering around in high potential reversal zone if S<D and the bull wins in the coming tug of war. Very good reactions.
4. Add more bags, this is discount zone already, add staggered buy in lower zone. If youre not sure yet, wait few more days once price stabilized in HTF. Employ EMA 50-100-200 to see SR.
5. H4-D1 CHoCH (change of character) observed, no BOS yet. The bottom is near, probably 1-2 weeks or quicker.
6. Wyckoff Accum: The liquidity grab (PML sweep) aligns with wyckoff spring, indicating phase C is complete. CHoCH observed suggests we are transitioning into phase D. If buyers defend the current range, price should rally toward the SOS near 0.014-0.016. LPS after SOS confirmed would be your last buy chance before going higher.
TLDR: We are given very good discounted price, now whether to buy or not, ill leave that decision to to you.
Note
-Similarities:
TBULL may act as frontrunner or lagging price movement of these tokens:
PONKE, MOODENG, SPX, NEIRO, BRETT, SUN
Note
Very good, adding more positionNote
Very interesting development, aggressive key-levels probing for both B&S.
Last buy filled, now i hodl.
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