Long
TELL long opportunity
Updated
*revised trade entry for my last post on TELL:
Price finally hit the bottom of the wedge which I'm sure many other TELL traders were waiting for.
The thing is though, that the macro story for the core of their business has never been better as demand for natural gas and LNG transfer will only increase as geopolitical tension rises in the Middle East and Russia continues their offensive, all while Biden admin is on track to completely deplete the SPR for the sake of keeping US oil prices stable.
TELL has a huge opportunity to explode here...
Though, they are yet to find a partner to secure FID in the amount of I believe 14.5b for their Driftwood LNG plant in Louisiana. The longer they continue construction without this decision being made, the higher their bankruptcy risk becomes. As soon as they get it, however, investors will pile in money and the impact on price will be monstrous.
Positive developments in FID situation should bring us to dashed line.
Securing of FID could break the uptrend, in an overly optimistic case, and likely over a 1-2 year timeframe.
Personally am waiting for Monday open before I make any entry -- **If price breaks below bottom trendline, I would be very hesitant about entering a long until a reclaim.**
Please let me know your thoughts below.
Price finally hit the bottom of the wedge which I'm sure many other TELL traders were waiting for.
The thing is though, that the macro story for the core of their business has never been better as demand for natural gas and LNG transfer will only increase as geopolitical tension rises in the Middle East and Russia continues their offensive, all while Biden admin is on track to completely deplete the SPR for the sake of keeping US oil prices stable.
TELL has a huge opportunity to explode here...
Though, they are yet to find a partner to secure FID in the amount of I believe 14.5b for their Driftwood LNG plant in Louisiana. The longer they continue construction without this decision being made, the higher their bankruptcy risk becomes. As soon as they get it, however, investors will pile in money and the impact on price will be monstrous.
Positive developments in FID situation should bring us to dashed line.
Securing of FID could break the uptrend, in an overly optimistic case, and likely over a 1-2 year timeframe.
Personally am waiting for Monday open before I make any entry -- **If price breaks below bottom trendline, I would be very hesitant about entering a long until a reclaim.**
Please let me know your thoughts below.
Note
Exactly why waiting until Monday open is effective when price tanks Friday -- hits the bottom of trend but does not yet hit historical demand levels (double, triple bottom) at $0.70 and $0.50.The trend can be reclaimed eventually, but the supply levels often must be hit so demand can finally present itself.
I am still waiting for $0.70.
Note
Previously marked worst-case scenario of $0.50 hit the previous week, seemed to hold up very well and price recoiled today's session. Posted thoughts on entry/exit in comment section below.
In short -- wait for wedge reclaim or wait for strong green weekly candle to print. Or happily trade elsewhere while TELL goes bankrupt.
Note
Looks like TELL is going to close this week right above the lowest support level. This is a good sign since it didn't breach below, but bad that it couldn't close green and sustain Tuesday's spike.
However, looking at the monthly, if price were to close above $0.682 by December then consolidate, we could see enough steam to break back into trend and bring price to the upper red line, following through with the waves marked on this chart.
Completing Wave 1 will be a good enough sign to maybe buy the dip at Wave 2, but buying any before then comes with no guarantee of safety.
Good luck!
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