Short

Doomsday Coming for $TIA

Updated

Summary:
The market is on the brink of a significant downturn as market makers and exchanges prepare to hunt shorters before the impending selling pressure becomes unmanageable. With a lack of regulations, the environment is ripe for manipulation, and the sharks are circling, ready to capitalize on the blood in the water.

---

Key Points:

1. Current Market Dynamics:
- The circulating supply of is 218.41 million, with a staggering 80.85% (175 million) of that supply set to unlock soon. This is a critical moment for traders, as the potential for inflation is imminent.

2. Pending Undelegation:
- An additional 17.5% (37.6 million) is pending undelegation. Keep in mind that unbonding takes 21 days, and many savvy traders are looking to front-run the unlock, which could exacerbate the selling pressure.
- For detailed undelegation statistics, refer to the analysis on smartstake.

3. Misleading Information:
- There is a lot of misinformation circulating, with some traders claiming that the upcoming unlock is bullish. This is clearly not the case.
- WARNING: Do not listen to those who are promoting this narrative! Many of them may be affiliated with market makers or large stakeholders who are hoping to offload their assets before a potential crash.

4. Upcoming Unlocks:
- There are many significant unlocks but here are three of them on the horizon, with millions of dollars worth of expected to be sold just before the cliff unlock.
- For verification, check smartstake.

---

Conclusion:
The situation surrounding is precarious, and traders should be cautious. The combination of significant unlocks, pending undelegation, and the potential for market manipulation suggests that a downturn is imminent. Stay informed and make decisions based on solid analysis rather than hype.

**Disclaimer:** This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Trade active

My short trade is in huge profit—hope you listened to my advice!

I want to share my concerns again regarding the upcoming unlock for TIA.

On October 31, we are facing a significant token release of 175 million tokens (16% of the total supply), valued at $1.07 billion, which represents 80% of the current market cap.

What’s even more alarming is the daily unlock of 995,000 tokens (approximately $6 million) that will follow.

Here are some key red flags to consider:

- Seed Investors: Up almost 526x.
- Series A Investors: Up 50x.
- Series B Investors: Up 5x.
- Market Manipulation: There are clear patterns of manipulation in the market.
- Supply Surge: The total supply will nearly double in just four days.
- Consistent Selling Pressure: Daily unlocks will create relentless selling pressure.
- Market Absorption: The market needs to absorb $1.07 billion worth of tokens.

While some may argue that this is a "bullish unlock" due to OTC activities, the fundamental market dynamics suggest otherwise. The tokenomics reveal concerning flaws that cannot be overlooked.

Here’s an unpopular opinion: could have potential for triple-digit growth IF the tokenomics weren’t so manipulated of course.

However, with VCs enjoying such substantial profit margins and this aggressive unlock structure in place, we are likely to see significant downward pressure.

Stay safe, everyone!

Note

Just a quick reminder that the unlock event is happening in just 2 days on Halloween, October 30th, at 2 PM UTC! Mark your calendars! 🎃

Trade active

Incredible to witness the upcoming changes! On October 30th, 2024, at 2 PM UTC, we are set to experience an astonishing 80% inflation in the token supply, followed by an additional 80% inflation within the year as approximately 1 million tokens are unlocked daily. This means we will see a total inflation of 160% over the next 360 days, increasing the circulating supply from 220 million to 400 million on the 30th, and potentially reaching 800 million within a year.

This tokenomics structure raises serious concerns about fairness. Who is behind this decision? Is it Mustafa Al-Bassam, a British computer hacker and co-founder of LulzSec originally from Iraq? Or perhaps Batuhan Dasgin from Turkey, Ismail Khoffi from Morocco, or Reinhold Wohlwend from Germany, all of whom are co-founders?

This situation poses a significant risk for novices entering the crypto space, with thousands of new investors making their first investments each week. The venture capitalists involved are already wealthy and seem to be attempting to artificially pump the token before the cliff. Additionally, the presence of high-frequency trading bots and technical analysis traders, who may not have this critical information, could lead to a catastrophic price drop from $5 to $0.50 in my opinion.

Let’s keep an eye on this situation—I'm just speculating, but the signs are concerning!

Trade active

Regardless of the level of adoption, unlocking tokens daily is simply a cash grab designed to enrich the team.

So, be sure to pay close attention to vesting and token unlock schedules.

Note

One striking aspect of the Celestia philosopher joke—where "PhD" humorously stands for "Doctor of Philosophy," implying a degree of pretentiousness—is their claim in the documentation of an 8% inflation rate relative to the total supply. This metric appears manipulated to present a favorable image. Who calculates inflation based on total supply? We certainly wouldn’t do that with fiat currency! Inflation should be assessed based on circulating supply. This approach seems deceptive, designed to showcase attractive figures to entice the public into their scheme. It's disappointing behavior from the team behind .

For more details, you can check their paper aimed at promoting their vision on their website under docs celestia > learn/staking-governance-supply. (can't post link)

Trade active

You’ll notice that numerous individuals are publishing and updating ideas to go long on

Don’t be fooled by their tactics!!! Some of them may be working for investors who stand to gain a significant portion of the $1.07 billion cliff unlock or the $150 million undelegating happening within the next 38 hours (values calculated at the current price). Others are just blind traders relying solely on technical analysis, ignoring fundamental news. They believe they can predict the future simply by drawing lines, but unfortunately, 90% of them end up losing money. Stay cautious!

Trade active

Get ready, everyone! The countdown is on — our event is happening in less than 29 hours! Time to dust off your party shoes and prepare for some fun. Let the excitement begin! 🎉⏰

Trade active

Key Points Recap on Market Dynamics

- Unlock in 24 Hours: A significant token unlock is set for tomorrow at 2 PM UTC, releasing 175 million tokens (80% of the current market cap).

- ****Market Manipulation****: Insiders, VCs, and large stakeholders are likely conducting psychological operations (psyops) on platforms like TradingView and Twitter to manipulate public perception and trading behavior.

- Inflation Risks: The upcoming unlock will lead to a staggering increase in supply, with daily unlocks creating relentless selling pressure.

- ****Misinformation Alert****: Beware of misleading narratives claiming the unlock is bullish; many promoters may be affiliated with those looking to offload their assets before a potential crash.

- Red Flags:
- Seed investors have seen returns of up to 526x.
- Daily unlocks will create consistent selling pressure.
- The market must absorb $1.07 billion worth of tokens.

- Caution Advised: Traders should remain vigilant and base decisions on solid analysis rather than hype, as the situation is precarious and could lead to significant losses.

**Disclaimer**: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

Trade active

Current Market Activity: The recent pump in is primarily driven by arbitrage opportunities and high-frequency trading (HFT) bots. These bots are executing triangulation strategies, capitalizing on the pump by trading between BTC, and USD.

It's important to note that this isn't limited to just this trio; HFT bots are actively working across various cryptocurrencies with sufficient liquidity, extracting profits through rapid trades. While this activity can create short-term price movements, it may not reflect the underlying fundamentals of the assets involved.

Stay cautious and keep an eye on market dynamics as these manipulative practices can lead to increased volatility.

Trade active

For those interested, visit mintscan .io and take a look at these 8 addresses to see when they initiated the undelegation and when their stakes will become available (with a 21-day lockup period and potentially longer if vested):

celestia1xa9fjes5g09hcz6gl9clp5khzf6lrg5egg5hap - 2,950,000 TIA (~15M)
celestia10dfdls8g55p477x5gh04tuassqj7glsvsaf2nd - 2,330,010 TIA (~11.5M)
celestia1v73fd3rg4vssz5ewk8lmcd48yv5y9lvl9ttztf - 2,000,000 TIA (~10M)
celestia1rfqvpjqtd5nnlvux9j4ueqxwcce89u2mm7m7u3 - 1,333,240 TIA (~6.5M)
celestia1x7x32peurnynswql0z84krwwfttrf0vnltzr66 - 1,190,480 TIA (~6M)
celestia1r3t6hwc33rjest3zjaz9560wz5vf74h7598e0t - 1,190,480 TIA (~6M)
celestia10dfdls8g55p477x5gh04tuassqj7glsvsaf2nd - 999,999 TIA (~5M)
celestia1uktva0u9t0cawhw2n25xpypxhw7ffjury78g9n - 666,666 TIA (~3.3M)
... (find more on smartstake)

Then, check the TIA order book on Binance (which accounts for 25% of TIA's overall volume) to see if it can absorb this, along with the 175 million TIA ($875 million) allocated to seed investors, Series A, and Series B.

This will be a big liquidity extraction party! :)

Trade active

13 hours left before unlock.

Trade active

🚨 Attention, everyone! In just 3.5 hours, we’re about to witness the Celestia Ponzi scheme blast off! 🚀 With an impending 80% inflation and a massive unlock of 175 million awaited since a whole YEAR for early investors, it’s like watching a fireworks show — except the fireworks are actually seed investors ready to dump their bags on late adopters! 🎆

Let’s be real: who wouldn’t cash in after making 500x? Here’s a quick reminder of the gains:

Seed Investors: Up almost 526x.
Series A Investors: Up 50x.
Series B Investors: Up 5x.

Grab your popcorn, folks; this is going to be a wild ride! 🍿💸

Trade active

Also, I must remind you that their paper is misleading. They claim an 8% inflation rate, decreasing over years, but that figure is based on total supply, not circulating supply, which is how inflation should be calculated in a fair economic system.

On top of the 80% inflation happening in just 1.5 hours, there will be around 1 million tokens unlocked daily, with approximately 75% going to investors. That adds up to about 30 million tokens monthly, resulting in an additional 360 million tokens over the year. This translates to another 80% inflation over the year or a daily inflation rate of about 0.25% and a monthly inflation rate of 8%.

🚨🚨 This is a blatant cash grab! 💸

And let’s not forget the group of founders — dubbed bad philosophers (PhDs)—who, despite their academic credentials, have a shady past. Mustafa, a former hacker with LulzSec who infamously hacked Sony PlayStation, is now targeting crypto enthusiasts. Stay alert!

Trade active

🚨🚨 45 minutes left !

🚀 Just a quick prediction for you all! I foresee a minimum price drop of 2x, landing around $2.50. A more realistic scenario could see us at a 10x division, reaching $0.50. And for the wildest ride, we might even hit a 50x division, dropping to $0.10! 😱

Remember, these are just my thoughts — I'm not a fortune teller! 🔮 But keep in mind, anything is possible! 😉✨

Trade active

Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet. Be patient!

Hey everyone! Just a quick update: the unlock has happened, but the price hasn't dropped immediately. This could be due to market sentiment, liquidity, and delayed selling from investors. Selling pressure is coming, but it might take some time to materialize, so let's be patient! ⏳

Also, keep in mind that CoinMarketCap hasn't updated the circulating supply yet, which can affect how the market reacts. Stay tuned and watch for any changes! 📈💡

Note

Funny to see that 95% of ideas here on tradingview were suggesting to buy/long this token! Bad traders? Psychological operations? that's definitely awful and disgusting. 🤮🤮🤮

Note

I recently discovered that The Celestia Foundation is governed by the Foundation Council, which includes a member named Batuhan Dasgin, who is also a seed investor. So, congrats, Batuhan, on your impressive 500x return! I hope you're paying taxes on that to help support the people in Turkey, your home country, which is currently facing significant inflation issues just like Celestia

If you check his Twitter, you'll see that he's already promoting other projects he has seed invested in. Because, of course, one project isn't enough work! It seems he doesn't want to focus 100% on Celestia; instead, he's spreading himself thin across multiple projects to get rich quicker. That’s not very nice, Batuhan. On his Twitter account, crypto_han, you can find him reposting projects like Predicate, Delta, Payy, Initia, Citrea, and more.

It’s clear that he’s not fully committed to any one project and is instead cashing in on many. VCs are launching tons of projects into the wild, and I can't help but wonder: what are your thoughts on this practice? Do you find it fair? The only thing that could potentially stop them is justice with heavy penalties, but that seems far from happening. In the meantime, it might be wise to analyze the vesting schedules of these projects and look for the best opportunities to short them at the right moment.

Trade active

🌟 Hey everyone! Let’s channel our inner monks and practice some patience! 🧘‍♂️ The meltdown might take a few days or even weeks, but remember, good things come to those who wait!

Those early investor looters are playing it smart, dumping their tokens slowly. I’ve been tracking several wallets, and it looks like they’re sending bits and pieces to exchanges. So, let’s hang in there and keep our eyes on the prize! 🥳🍀

Trade active

🚨 Heads up, everyone! As the US elections approach in just 6 days, be cautious with your leverage. If Bitcoin continue to pump, might see a little boost too, thanks to arbitrage and high-frequency trading bots. However, once the election hype fades, uncertainty and doubt could return, leading to downward pressure on Bitcoin so we should see bigger red candles for TIA. Stay smart and manage your risk! 📉💡

Trade active

TradingView Idea: Short Update

As we observe the current market dynamics, it's clear that while the broader crypto market is experiencing a downturn, has seen a notable uptick. This movement appears to be driven by market makers hunting for short liquidations. However, I believe this pump is unlikely to sustain itself for long.

Key Points:

- Leverage Caution: Given the volatility, I recommend a maximum leverage of 8x. Market makers often profit significantly from liquidations, and we need to be cautious.

- Liquidation Insights: According to Coinglass, on October 30th, approximately 500k in shorts were liquidated across all exchanges, primarily in the 25x to 100x range, alongside $1.36 million in long liquidations. As of today, October 31st, it seems the shorts are facing the brunt of the market's movements.

- Market Inflows: Today, we’ve seen a significant inflow of around 6.35 million TIA (~$30 million) with minimal outflow. This suggests strong buying interest, but we must remain vigilant.

- Open Interest Trends: Open interest has reached an all-time high of $305 million, with an estimated 60% of positions being shorts. The funding rate has shifted from negative (since September 10th) to positive as of October 31st, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards longs.

- Market Cap Considerations: Despite the current pump, I remain convinced that the overall market cap increase will eventually lead to a price correction. Patience will be key as we navigate this volatility.

Conclusion: While the current price action may seem bullish, I advise caution. Monitor the liquidation data and open interest closely on Coinglass, and be prepared for potential reversals. Take care and trade wisely!

Trade active

It appears that is experiencing a gradual decline. Over the past 48 hours, we've seen an inflow of over $10 million worth of (approximately 2 million TIA) onto exchanges.

Looking ahead, we have 18,000 pending undelegations over the next 21 days, totaling around 24 million TIA (approximately $120 million). Notably, 6 million TIA will be undelegated and released into the market on November 20th, which could lead to significant selling pressure as holders look to extract value.

Trust in the asset is waning, as evidenced by a decrease of 5,000 addresses and a loss of 12,000 delegates in the last 30 days. In just the past 24 hours, we've seen a drop of 228 unique delegates.

As the US election is ongoing, we can expect some small pump turbulence, with the outcome set to be revealed in 4 days. There may be some hype following the election, but this could quickly turn into disillusionment and fear thereafter.

I advise using a maximum of 8x leverage, as market makers and exchanges are actively hunting those using 20 to 100x leverage. This is good food for them and their wallets.

Overall, the market sentiment is shifting, and caution is advised as we navigate these developments.

Trade active

Reminder: Be cautious! Market makers are profiting significantly from liquidations and the price movements that follow large liquidation walls. Unregulated markets often attract manipulators engaging in questionable activities behind the scenes. To stay informed, check out the liquidation walls on Coinglass and monitor the liquidation map closely. This way, you can avoid getting caught in the flock of sheep being sheared with every market wave. Stay vigilant! :D

Trade active

In approximately 36 hours, on November 4th between 1 PM and 4 PM UTC, three addresses will unlock a total of 1 million (approximately $4.5 million) from delegation, which has been locked in unbonding state for 21 days. I will be closely monitoring these addresses to see if they transfer the funds to exchanges for sale. Given the circumstances, I strongly suspect that this will be the case. Stay tuned for updates!

Trade active

In an unregulated environment, it’s like a feeding frenzy where all the sharks and mobsters come out to play, ready to pull off the dirtiest tricks to make a quick buck. It’s all about psychological manipulation! How many times have you seen technical analysis (TA) just break its own channels like a bad magician? They must have a crystal ball because they seem to read the future with their charts!

Let’s be real: many of the TAs you find online are just bait for unsuspecting pigeons who think trading is as easy as pie. Stick to fundamental analysis, folks! In a regulated market, 90% of people are losing, and you can see the SEC catching insiders daily—from high-ranking police officers to corporate executives. (Go on the SEC website to see it by yourself)

Now, imagine how much worse it is in an unregulated market where the SEC isn’t around to protect small investors from all the shady practices they’ve been battling for years. It’s like being in a shark tank without a life jacket! So, keep your wits about you and don’t get caught in the feeding frenzy! 🦈💰

Trade active

Reminder: It's important to note that a significant portion of trading volume in crypto markets — often estimated around 60% or more — is generated by market makers. While this volume contributes to liquidity and helps facilitate smoother trading, it can also create the illusion of higher activity than what is driven by retail investors.

This "fake" volume can influence price movements, as market makers execute a large number of trades on both the buy and sell sides. In the largely unregulated crypto space, this can lead to concerns about market manipulation and the true nature of trading activity.

Stay aware of these dynamics as you navigate the market!

Trade active

Buckle up, folks! 🚀 With the election just under 48 hours away, uncertainty and doubt are ramping up faster than a rollercoaster on caffeine! 🎢 And just when you thought it couldn't get crazier, we’ve got the federal funds rate announcement in 72 hours! 📈

To top it off, there’s an astonishing $400 million long position ready to be liquidated at the BTC support zone of $67,200! 💰 You can bet the sharks and thieves — aka market makers and exchange insiders cartel — are circling like hungry vultures in this unregulated market! 🦈💸

So, fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a wild ride! 😄🎉

Note

TL;DR:

1. Market Pump: Recent surge due to U.S. election, pushing Bitcoin to new ATH.
2. Liquidations: $570 million in long and short positions liquidated, benefiting market makers.
3. Open Interest: Dropped by 1/3 from $320 million to $220 million.
4. Funding Rate: Positive again, indicating more money in long positions; potential for market makers to hunt these longs.
5. Decentralization Concerns: High concentration of stake among top delegates; Gini coefficient at 0.522933.
6. Upcoming Unlock: 3.9 million unlocking tomorrow with federal funds rate announcement.
7. Caution Advised: Limit leverage to 2-3x to protect capital in this volatile market.

**Full Update:**

I want to express some serious concerns regarding the current state of the market. Over the last 24 hours, we've seen a significant pump, largely driven by the U.S. election, which pushed Bitcoin to new all-time highs. This surge has sent arbitrage bots and high-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms into a frenzy, inflating the prices of all cryptocurrencies.

However, we must not overlook the underlying issues. Market makers and exchanges are profiting immensely from this price movement, with a staggering $570 million in long and short positions liquidated. This money didn’t just vanish into a black hole; it went straight into the pockets of the market manipulators in this unregulated environment. Yes, a small portion may have gone into the insurance funds set up by exchanges to protect their gambling systems, but the majority is lining the pockets of those who thrive on volatility.

Additionally, the decentralization metrics raise red flags. The top 100 delegates hold 80.31% of the stake, and the Gini coefficient of 0.522933 indicates a concerning level of inequality. The Nakamoto Index of 7 suggests that it would only take a small number of colluding entities to disrupt the network, which is alarming.

Open interest has also dropped by a massive one-third, from $320 million to $220 million, indicating a significant reduction in market participation. The funding rate is positive again, suggesting that there is more money in long positions than short. This could mean that market makers will soon start hunting those longs, especially after the small hype surrounding the testnet "Ginger" fades.

It’s worth noting that John Adler, a kind of hidden member of the foundation team, hasn’t posted anything since 2022. Yet, just a week before the cliff unlock at the end of October 2024, he suddenly shares two articles, seemingly to hype up believers about a "big revolution." This appears to be a tactic to pump the token and maintain its price high enough for continued dumping on unsuspecting small investors.

Tomorrow, 3.9 million will be unlocked alongside the federal funds rate announcement. Let’s see if the downward trend continues or if we should wait a few more days for the euphoria from the election to settle down.

Given these dynamics, I strongly advise everyone to exercise caution. I recommend not using more than 8x leverage, and even that is risky. Ideally, stick to 2 or 3x leverage at most. While it may feel like our small bags won’t grow as quickly compared to those with millions to play with, protecting your capital should be the priority in this unpredictable market. Stay safe out there!

znakosaur

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.