Long

Tilray ($TLRY) 4.20 and beyond

Updated

Looks like a massive ZigZag has finished on Tilray. C-Wave is pretty much exactly .786 the length of the A-Wave (in log).

If the impulse from the low is completed, it's a bit too early to call for a completed correction, though not entirely impossible, if this finishes as a Zigzag down (meaning we're currently in the C-wave). Timewise it would seem too short though, so this might need a bit more time to offer the next long.

i.ibb.co/crczjBT/2023-08-22-14-20-04-8263.png

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Looks like a first ZigZag could've finished. Hitting Pitchfork Median, Lower channel boundary with a 1:1 ratio (everything in log).

Currently still within the Pitchfork. As previously mentioned, having this as a completed correction, while not impossible, is less likely, because it's a bit short in time. The correction could continue as a sharp multizigzag after retracing upwards or as a sideways correction that tests the high again before going lower.

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Nice move up on decent volume. If it keeps holding and doesn't get denied quickly, it certainly would give more credence to the ZigZag having been the full correction:

If not, the previously mentioned sideways correction possibilities:

And here's another possibility, which would have the initial impulse only finishing with this move:

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EWO seems to be partial to this previously mentioned variant

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I believe pretty much all scenarios I've mentioned are still on the table

If it plays out as a corrective like this

The originaly anticipated sideways correction

The most bullish immediate scenario

This count puts us just at the start of a correction, so if the above correction holds, it might just be the first part of a correction (similar expectations as with the previous high)

New scenario, that I didn't have before, a diag:

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Gave the reaction from the shown zone for a 15% move, but broke the zone afterwards.

Diag up is off the table and the uber bullish count seems highly unlikely at this point.

Seems like the EWO did not lie then :)

So main assumption now would be that we finished something at either of those highs.

ZigZag in white, impulse in yellow to finish at the absolute high.

In that case the issue is a bit that the first move down looks like an impulse. "Issue" in the sense, that we're unlikely to be done anywhere here.
ZigZag in orange, impulse in red. Either might just be the first leg of the correction, if it is a correction (more to that further below).

Now for the bullish hopium, you'de have to switch to line chart... then you could argue a flat correction (which would go along with the initial idea of this whole setup, when I posted it) or different kinds of sideways corrections, which could also turn sooner with just a 3 wave move from the high on the line chart).

That's all I can see for the bullish case at this point (other than the unlikely looking 1-2 1-2 case with a very deep second 2...)

So... onward to the bearish cases

ZigZag in white and impulse in red (from 3 charts up) might also reach new all-time lows! For example we could have plenty of the higher degree wave 5 still to go, which wouldn't be great, since it could take a while.

And even the impulse up, could be the C-wave of a wave 4 flat, which would be quite massive, granted, but something to keep in mind:

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Certainly looks like it might be close to finishing an impulse here, if not finished already. Whether that is the last move will remain to be seen

Alternatively we might still be in a sideways wave 4 with the wave 5 yet to come.

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Depending on where you'd want to place the end of wave 4, you could argue a diag, that's not done yet for the wave 5:

or like this, where the 5 could be done (would be rather small then) or not, "worst" case that's just the wave 1 of the 5, leaving quite a bit more room down

That's for the mentioned more immediate bullish scenarios.

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Nothing in particular has changed (other than me catching covid after dodging it for 4 years...), so I'm just updating the previously shown possibilities with how it developed so far.

The bullish view with the flat in line chart could be done, though it's a bit early to fully call it.

Without having to go to line chart, there's this bullish count:

And in case of a bearish impulse down, we'd likely still be missing a move down:

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I do not have any new ideas from an EW perspective, pretty much all that I've considered and is still possible I've already posted. Unfortunetly even with the (mid-term) most bullish possibility of a flat correction, there is no lower limit, so as long as the low holds, it'll stay valid.

EW aside, we're very close to an open GAP here:

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So, sure looks like it just wanted to close that gap mentioned in the previous update, huh? Closed it and gave a good reaction (well, most of the market did, so that's that...). We have a higher high now and here's a fun little bonus pitchfork:

Will have to see how it develops from here now.

There are still bearish views on the table. Compare with the update from Sep 19. We could just have finished that impulse from the top, which as a C-wave of a flat would be fantastically bullish. On the other hand it could also just be an A-wave down for something like that diag on the fully white count (third image in the Sep 19 update).

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It's been a day on this one, eh? Not that much has changed though. Still, a small update towards the end of the year:

Pitchfork from the last update. Gave another hit under the gap close but ultimately held that gap level and stayed above that pitchfork median line, which for now looks good.

As for the count, it's still the same things I've already shown, two ways to assume an impulse from the low with a possibly finished wave 2:

The move from the recent low could be an expanding diag (white) or we had a bigger sideways correction wave 2 and are in a wave 3 now (yellow):

As for the bearish case, the diag shown in the Sep. 19th update is still valid, though mid/long-term that's still bullish and basically just an opportunity to accumulate more, if it goes deeper:

That's all I have for now - nice holidays to everyone and see you next year!

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That pitchfork from the last update had a predictor for where to stop right in there, eh?

Reached the upper end of the zone from the previous update. For the bulls this can be seen as an expanding leading diag:

First challenge would be not to lose 2$ again (retesting previous highs around 2.05$-2.10$). Certainly interesting with earnings right around the corner. Should it lose 2$ the next stop might be below 1.90$.

And something along those lines, as shown in the previous update, is still possible:

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That zone up to 2.50$ definitely did it's job as resistance. We lost 2$ and arrived below 1.90$.

Sticking with the diag count for the bulls, we could have a flat correction here, that has reached a sufficient depth. Holding that 1.85$, possibly with another kick down to 1.80$ would look good for the bulls.

Otherwise, the bear shown in the last updates will stay on the table for a while.

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Some movement the last two weeks.

The simplified hopeful case, a 5 wave swing followed by a 3 wave swing:

The still a bit cautious case, since these swings look very much like 3 wave moves:

which could still turn into just a flat correction before going for another low.

Doesn't really change anything for the long term case of accumulation at the lows. I've been holding since the 2023 lows and adding to the long term bag.

There's been some nice volume on the recent move:

We are coming up into a higher volume zone which has been resistance previously. Getting above that and finally getting back into 3$+ and creating a new high would really lighten up the picture.

We've already broken a few trendlines to the upside in arithmetic view. In log we still have this one, which coincides with the mentioned high volume zone and the 50% retracement of the move down:

Getting above and testing from above would once again look nice.

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We did get pretty much exactly the orange path shown in the second image of the last update, which was now followed by a sizeable earnings drop.

We also see the levels from the third image of the last update being respected (2.40$ held as support on the way up and price stopped around the 2.96$ level and currently sitting at the 2.06$ level):

Besides that there's nothing really new here beyond what I've already mentioned in the last update.

For the bull case you wouldn't want the low to be taken out:

The bear case would take the last impulse as the C-wave of a flat though, which would leave the possibility of new lows, for example as an ending diagonale like this:

TophatPandaMagician

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