TLT Roadmap Dec 2023
Updated
Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024
Note
Good startNote
Early stageNote
More pulling back aheadNote
Should start turning upNote
Very good price action following the expected pathNote
I made a mistake with the instrument here, instead of TLT should have used IEF as 10 yr yields will fall faster than 30 yr yieldsNote
It is highly likely that this upswing starting Oct 2023 extends into Oct 2025. Obviously no straight line but some correction starting Aug into Oct 2024Note
Entertaining to say the leastNote
Market participants are fully imposing the Trump trade across asset markets. This most likely will form a triangle (currently D wave forming to the downside) before new highs in yields/lows in bondsNote
Bonds setting initial low on that decline likely this weekNote
JP was a bit hesitant yesterday which is incrementally hawkish (as was Logan). I was very confident that this will happen once DJT wins. More cuts will further destabilize yieldsNote
Probably quick rally this weekNote
Market was already sniffing the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Sec as an outspoken deficit hawk
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