$TLT - 20Y Bond index - BUY?
Clearly, inflation is a problem and I for one thought the rates rising were overblown after the first hike. (I was very wrong here) With that said, we are likely in the topping process for inflation, pending any new black swan events happen. The indicators show 4 things in regards to this bond. 1. No momentum, 2. Bear market trend 3. below the historical anchored V-WAP (so most who own this EFT are underwater) 4. Bottoming on a Fib.
The best way to play this is to buy tail-risk long-dated calls. Keep position small given the macro market, but clearly, this is an opportunity that hasn't been available for a while in the bond market.
The best way to play this is to buy tail-risk long-dated calls. Keep position small given the macro market, but clearly, this is an opportunity that hasn't been available for a while in the bond market.
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