Recent price action in TLT has raised questions about whether the recent sell-off reflects foreign selling pressure, potentially driven by liquidity shifts into equities, or simply represents healthy profit-taking. Key economic data from Japan may provide context to this move, as Japan's current account surplus hit a record high at JPY 4,060.7 billion in February 2025, driven by strong exports and reduced imports.
Technical Analysis:
TLT experienced a sharp reversal after testing resistance levels around $93-$94, indicating significant selling interest at these upper bands. Currently, the price is approaching crucial support levels, with key areas of focus being $89.78, $89.20, and $88.60. Price action in these zones will be critical to watch for confirmation of further direction.
Bullish Scenario:
Profit Targets:
Bearish Scenario:
If price decisively breaks below $89.78 with strong volume confirmation:
Profit Targets:
Market Context:
Japan's record current account surplus could signify reduced foreign buying pressure on US Treasuries, potentially contributing to the selling in TLT. This macroeconomic backdrop underscores the importance of watching these key technical levels closely.
Final Thoughts:
Keep a close eye on volume and RSI for confirming indicators, ensuring trades are executed with clear risk management. Given the macroeconomic context and current technical setup, caution and flexibility in trading decisions remain essential.
Technical Analysis:
TLT experienced a sharp reversal after testing resistance levels around $93-$94, indicating significant selling interest at these upper bands. Currently, the price is approaching crucial support levels, with key areas of focus being $89.78, $89.20, and $88.60. Price action in these zones will be critical to watch for confirmation of further direction.
Bullish Scenario:
Profit Targets:
Bearish Scenario:
If price decisively breaks below $89.78 with strong volume confirmation:
Profit Targets:
Market Context:
Japan's record current account surplus could signify reduced foreign buying pressure on US Treasuries, potentially contributing to the selling in TLT. This macroeconomic backdrop underscores the importance of watching these key technical levels closely.
Final Thoughts:
Keep a close eye on volume and RSI for confirming indicators, ensuring trades are executed with clear risk management. Given the macroeconomic context and current technical setup, caution and flexibility in trading decisions remain essential.
Trade closed manually
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.