TLT Targeting A Test of 99.19
Technical & Trade View
TLT (ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 93.27
Technicals
Primary support is 93.27
Primary pattern objective is 99.19
Acceptance above 95.40 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance below 93.20 opens a test of 90.30
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish
Notes
US CPI released today, volatility expected around the print
Goldman Sachs expects ‘a below-consensus 0.44% increase in core CPI in October (vs. 0.5% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 6.46% (vs. 6.5% consensus). We expect moderate increases in both food and energy prices to raise headline CPI by 0.49% (vs. 0.6% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 7.8% (vs. 7.9% consensus)'
Going forward Goldman 'expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.3-0.4% range for the next couple of months before edging down to 0.2-0.3% next year. We forecast year-over-year core CPI inflation of 6.2% in December 2022, 3.3% in December 2023, and 2.7% in December 2024. The deceleration we expect in 2023 is driven more by goods than services categories'
TLT (ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 93.27
Technicals
Primary support is 93.27
Primary pattern objective is 99.19
Acceptance above 95.40 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance below 93.20 opens a test of 90.30
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish
Notes
US CPI released today, volatility expected around the print
Goldman Sachs expects ‘a below-consensus 0.44% increase in core CPI in October (vs. 0.5% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 6.46% (vs. 6.5% consensus). We expect moderate increases in both food and energy prices to raise headline CPI by 0.49% (vs. 0.6% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 7.8% (vs. 7.9% consensus)'
Going forward Goldman 'expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.3-0.4% range for the next couple of months before edging down to 0.2-0.3% next year. We forecast year-over-year core CPI inflation of 6.2% in December 2022, 3.3% in December 2023, and 2.7% in December 2024. The deceleration we expect in 2023 is driven more by goods than services categories'
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