$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75

Updated

I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to 97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move.

However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard.

I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October.

Let's see how it plays out.

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Looking like there might be a good short setup here. I think there's the possibility of yields rising really quickly w/ how the chart is setup.

Think yields fall after the 14th.

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Bought 6/14

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All eyes on ECB rate decision tomorrow. Lots of catalysts to push yields higher in the coming week. Hence why I took the puts. I think we see a move down in TLT before we see higher bond prices.

I'm thinking we could see that $84 level.

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If I had to guess, I think bond yields rise over the next week and then the Fed cuts rates next week which gives TLT relief into that June/July window.

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Update: that catalyst didn't play out. Still in the puts, don't think TLT can go much higher here. Let's see what tomorrow and next week bring.

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Welp, looks like the catalyst was NFP.

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Closed half of my position at 108% gain, riding 15 contracts into next week for free.

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Something is going on... down big today, broke down from 1HR H&S top. up on day.

Something doesn't make sense. My guess is we'll find out what's going on in the next couple of days.

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Closed +200%, want to see if TLT bounces here, if we get a good bounce, will reenter the puts because TLT still looks like it wants lower.

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Likely a good spot to reenter put position. Still looks like it wants more downside. Maybe CPI surprises tomorrow?

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Initial reaction was positive for TLT, but price went right back into the resistance that we just broke down from last week. I'm not certain price will continue higher here.

Again, the chart looks like it still wants lower. Not sure what would bring yields higher again, but something to be on the lookout for over the next few days.

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If we continue higher at open tomorrow, likely just continue to the upper targets.

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TLT still looks like it wants lower before higher. I can see a move down into next week and then we should continue into the higher targets into late July.

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I bought some today for 7/19. Still not liking the price action for sustained upside here. Let's see.

Maybe we can see higher TLT into Wed/thursday, but don't see a move continuing much past that.

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Got that price flip down. First target to the downside is 92, will see what happens there. Could potentially get that move I was expecting into the 80s, but will see what happens at that level first.

Once we bottom at either of those levels, I expect a big move higher.

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Got an important rejection on the initial positive reaction on CPI. Confidence building in larger downside move.

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Levels: $92 next. That breaks and there's one more support around $90.56. That breaks and we see $88.27.

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Broke through all supports. $88.27 next. If that breaks, then $85.91 and $83.29 after.

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Started shaving off some profits at +215%

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Still think we're heading lower here. I wouldn't be surprised if $85 gets tagged.

Key area right here w/ price above the 200DMA. If it breaks below this area of $91.93, likelihood favors a continued move lower.

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The chart is giving me somewhat of a conflicting read therefore I'm not taking a directional bet on TLT going into CPI tomorrow.

Thoughts:
On smaller timeframes (1hr, 2hr) I could see the case for price to move higher. However, on higher timeframes (4hr,5hr+) the chart still looks like it wants to correct more.

I could see a pop higher up into $93+ that gets faded. That would be my best guess as to what happens w/ the way the chart looks.

I am looking to go long TLT (for a trade), but I don't think it's time yet. Looking for a final low to be put in somewhere between $88-85. That should be the trigger to take a long.

If price is able to flip $94 as support, that will also be the other trigger to flip my bias to the long side.

Let's see what happens over the next couple of days to a week.

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Alright leaning towards a sustained move higher now. Will be looking at calls over the next month or two

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Note this does not mean I'm buying calls here. Just commenting on overall trend. I still think there's a possibility to pull back first to $91-92 area. Just ruling out the further downside to $88-85 for now.

Think price will likely follow the original path on the chart now.

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Update: I actually don't want to rule out the possibility of $88 yet. $88.50 is an interesting level to me and there's a chance we get down there before running higher.

Either way, whether it's $90-91 or $88.50, looking for a pullback still before going long.

If we do get down there, then I'll want to add $90+ calls for September.

Will update as the chart becomes more clear.

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That's likely it for the upside. Chart looks like it wants lower still. We just saw a another lower high form which sets up more downside.

The next pivot on the chart is likely going to be the catalyst to send TLT lower. I wouldn't be surprised to see those lower levels get hit by August/September 84-75.

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Pivot today, let's see what happens tomorrow. I'm likely going to take some Sep 20th 85P at open tomorrow. Really cheap right now.

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Either that or 10/18/24 82P. Will update in the morning when I decide.

Looks like the entire market is about to roll over and bonds are coming w/ it. Similar to what happened in 2022.

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Bought 100 contracts of 10/18

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So far, so good. Up 19% since this morning. Pivot to the downside ended up playing out.

This leads me to believe the next pivot might mark a temporary bottom or bottom (depending on how low we get).

Will keep updating over the coming weeks.

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Added on this bounce 8/16 85P. This one is highly risky, so potential to lose it all, but the chart forecasts $84 or lower by 8/16 and the options were priced at .06/contract so figured it was worth it as the returns would be massive if it hits.

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Closed out the puts for a small loss. I don't really like this bounce and could potentially see it going higher before rolling over. Don't want to take the chance of losing more should there be a really strong bounce.

Will reassess over the next few days once the chart becomes more clear.

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Likely exited that too soon. Looks like we're going to roll over now. Win some, lose some.

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Alright, glad I ended up getting out when I did. I do think that TLT has some upside into the $95 region over the next few days, then next week it should start it's trend back downwards.

Probably won't trade it though because the reward is small compared to the risk. Will wait for $95 region to decide what to do or reassess if price action goes the opposite way.

Let's see what reaction it has after the FED meeting tomorrow.

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Built a small starter position of 9/20 85P. Bought 20 contracts at .11 bc we got that bounce and bc Michael Gayed wrote yields look like they want to collapse haha so have to take the counter trade: x.com/leadlagreport/status/1818645722096386149

$95.38 next resistance, not sure if we make it up that far or not.

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Alright resistance broke, open to the idea that we move to $97-100 from here. Hence why I took a small position yesterday.

If this does play out, I'll want to go short from those levels.

Not going to do anything right now, just want to watch price action. If $95.38 can turn into support, then upside becomes more likely outcome. Lose that level = more downside.

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Alright now the most likely scenario is we see the upper resistance at $100.71 get tagged. Will likely look for puts there.

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Added to my 9/20 85P position this morning. I think that was likely it for TLT upside.

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Now in the positive on those puts.

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Next pivot tomorrow. Will likely add more puts there. Think we're likely to see the next rejection between 97.50-98

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So far, so good. $98 held as resistance. Good place to add more to puts.

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The pivot has sent price down so far.

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Added some 10/18

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Added more today to 10/18 91P.

Should be an interesting rest of the week. I could see a rejection here, or another move up to $100.24 for a double top.

Going to keep scaling into puts even if price goes up, because like before, I think the move higher will be short-lived.

Let's see.

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There's the reversal. H&S top confirmed breakdown.

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Well looks like the ltf breakdown bounced off of support and has now bounced higher, so looking for the next resistance now.

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Original idea was right, that was the reversal lower. Glad I've been adding to the position. Now in the positive.

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Breakdown has started.

benjihyam

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