Short

$TLT back below $100, sends it to $88

Updated

If manages to break below $100 here, it's next and final target would be $88 before upside.

I think if this happens, risk assets will take a nose dive lower (just like they did last year).

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Took some Sept 15 $95 strike puts here

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Added to my put position here. Sept 15 $95, $90 puts.

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And there goes the bond market... massive support broken.

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I covered both of my put positions today. Up 200 and 500%. Not because I think he trade is over, but mainly because I see a bounce coming and I don't like how many people have caught onto the short TLT trade.

Think we need to shake people out of it who entered today before the trend resumes.

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I'm looking for a bounce up to $98 or so, and that's where I'd like to reaccumulate. If it doesn't play out and we keep dropping, then I'll take the long side at $88

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Hmm definitely questioning whether it can make it as high as $98 on the bounce. Somewhere between here and 97 more likely. Then a reversal.

I'm probably not going to add my puts back, I think there are better trades to take than squeezing out the rest of the juice to the downside. I just hate the sentiment now that everyone has caught onto the trade.

Will likely wait till 88 and buy calls.

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If we can't make it down to $88 this week, then I'll expect a broader bounce before the target gets hit.

I will not be playing the long side until that target gets hit though. Mainly because the chart is still bearish, I expect more downside, and it's not worth the risk until the downside target is met.

Let's see how this week plays out.

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If I had to guess what brings it lower, a hot CPI print Thursday I could see TLT spiking lower. Let's see if that gets us a bottom.

In the meantime, I could see price rallying to $98.30 or so tops.

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Ended up buying a small position of 93P for 8/18 just incase my thesis plays out of CPI sending bonds lower tomorrow.

They were really cheap at $.13 / contract. Let's see what happens

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Looks like we got a break lower in TLT. Let's see if the idea plays out of 88 bottom.

So far, the options are in the positive up 30%.

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Took gains on this. Think we could see a bounce in the market

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TLT should bounce here to somewhere between $98-101 before it's last leg down.

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Welp, looks like I should've kept my $93 put. If I'm completely honest, not sure what happens here. Maybe it does go straight to $88

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I added back puts on TLT on Friday. Forgot to update - Sep 01 $90 puts (anticipating bottom being put in this week)

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I added even more TLT puts up here. Some with $93 strike and added to my Sep 01 90P position.

I've been trying to think of what the catalyst could be that would send bonds lower - thinking if they announce a 3% inflation target in Jackson Hole, the bond market wouldn't like that too much. Not sure if that's the catalyst or not, but bonds look stretched here.

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Bought 95P for 9/29 as well.

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Almost to target. Again, I expect $88 being the bottom and that's where I'll go long.

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Went long TLT here at $87.45

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Also took some March 15 2024 $101 calls

Trade closed manually

benjihyam

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