Update on long duration bonds
Hello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion, the drop over the last two days was caused mainly by Pelosi visiting Taiwan and bonds getting overbought on lower timeframes.
The 30y yields were rejected at the monthly pivot, while the 10y yields bounced at support and were denied at resistance. Yields are still in a short-term bearish trend, and there is no confirmation of a reversal yet, although the trend might have changed. It all depends on the situation between China and the US, as the more the tensions between those countries increase, the higher inflation will be, and therefore the higher rates will be. If China starts aggressively selling US bonds, this could create chaos in the funding markets. If the US starts banning Chinese imports or exports, the US bond market could explode, and yields go to the moon. This would force the Fed to step in and do unlimited QE / yield curve control. Essentially we are stuck in a scenario of mutually assured destruction here, and there is no way either one will come out as a winner in the short term.
I believe that we are in a deflationary/disinflationary period, which could be disturbed at any moment if China invades Taiwan. The Russia/Ukraine war pushed inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to start slowing down, and a China/Taiwan war could push inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to slow down. TLT could quickly reach 125-135 in the next few months. However, I don't believe bond yields are going negative soon. It will be challenging for the market to have negative nominal yields when inflation is so high and at a time when the Fed might be forced to intervene and do YCC.
The 30y yields were rejected at the monthly pivot, while the 10y yields bounced at support and were denied at resistance. Yields are still in a short-term bearish trend, and there is no confirmation of a reversal yet, although the trend might have changed. It all depends on the situation between China and the US, as the more the tensions between those countries increase, the higher inflation will be, and therefore the higher rates will be. If China starts aggressively selling US bonds, this could create chaos in the funding markets. If the US starts banning Chinese imports or exports, the US bond market could explode, and yields go to the moon. This would force the Fed to step in and do unlimited QE / yield curve control. Essentially we are stuck in a scenario of mutually assured destruction here, and there is no way either one will come out as a winner in the short term.
I believe that we are in a deflationary/disinflationary period, which could be disturbed at any moment if China invades Taiwan. The Russia/Ukraine war pushed inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to start slowing down, and a China/Taiwan war could push inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to slow down. TLT could quickly reach 125-135 in the next few months. However, I don't believe bond yields are going negative soon. It will be challenging for the market to have negative nominal yields when inflation is so high and at a time when the Fed might be forced to intervene and do YCC.
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