$TLT, the last bond rally before bear market continuation?

Updated

seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92.

Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts.

After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish bonds after the $98 resistance gets tagged.

I also think we'll see new lows (I know this is very opposite of what most people think will play out). This is also likely the catalyst that brings down the stock market (rates rise more than people think is possible).

Let's see how it plays out.

Note

I expect bonds to rally through the end of the month. Could potentially get all the way up to $100. I'm long via options. Once we get into the $98-100 region, I'll flip short.

Note

As long as this double bottom holds, idea still valid.

Note

Think we're starting to form a short term bottom and will see the move to the upside start soon.

Still thinking we're going to hit $98 before much larger downside. Got the original timing of the move wrong, but think it'll still play out between now and end of May.

benjihyam

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