This week, we've witnessed a dramatic shift as equities and U.S. government bonds cratered simultaneously. Trump, facing intense market backlash, notably reversed his aggressive tariff stance—forced by China's strategic response and market realities. At the start of the week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stood at 4.00%, skyrocketing to 4.51% in just a matter of days—a massive jump by typical investor standards. This rapid rise significantly impacts mortgage rates, car loans, and credit card borrowing, reflecting broader financial stress.
The sharp rise in bond yields resembles the forced-selling reaction to Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget crisis in 2022. Trump's tariff-induced inflation fears and notably weak demand in recent U.S. Treasury auctions further intensified bond selling pressure.
Technical Levels & Analysis for TLT
Hourly Chart
TLT has clearly broken crucial support levels, highlighting significant bearish momentum:
• Resistance Zone: $90.00 - $90.50
• Current Trading Zone: Approximately $88.50
• Support Zone: $86.50 - $87.00 (critical level to watch)
Daily Chart
The daily perspective confirms bearish sentiment with substantial price drops and increasing volatility:
• Major Resistance Area: $92.50 - $93.50 (strong overhead resistance where trapped longs may reside)
• Immediate Support Area: $86.50 - $87.00
Trade Ideas & Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (primary):
• Entry Trigger: A confirmed break below the immediate support at $86.50.
Profit Targets:
• Target 1: $85.00 (short-term follow-through)
• Target 2: $83.50 (potential deeper continuation)
• Stop Loss: Above $88.50, limiting risk in case of unexpected bullish reversal.
Bullish Scenario (counter-trend play):
• Entry Trigger: Strong recovery and hold above $89.00.
Profit Targets:
• Target 1: $90.50 (initial resistance)
• Target 2: $92.50 (secondary resistance level)
• Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $86.50 to tightly manage risk.
The rapid shifts in bond yields and tariffs are causing heightened market volatility. Investors must remain vigilant and maintain strict risk management. Watch these key TLT levels closely, especially amid ongoing tariff news and bond market reactions.
The sharp rise in bond yields resembles the forced-selling reaction to Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget crisis in 2022. Trump's tariff-induced inflation fears and notably weak demand in recent U.S. Treasury auctions further intensified bond selling pressure.
Technical Levels & Analysis for TLT
Hourly Chart
TLT has clearly broken crucial support levels, highlighting significant bearish momentum:
• Resistance Zone: $90.00 - $90.50
• Current Trading Zone: Approximately $88.50
• Support Zone: $86.50 - $87.00 (critical level to watch)
Daily Chart
The daily perspective confirms bearish sentiment with substantial price drops and increasing volatility:
• Major Resistance Area: $92.50 - $93.50 (strong overhead resistance where trapped longs may reside)
• Immediate Support Area: $86.50 - $87.00
Trade Ideas & Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (primary):
• Entry Trigger: A confirmed break below the immediate support at $86.50.
Profit Targets:
• Target 1: $85.00 (short-term follow-through)
• Target 2: $83.50 (potential deeper continuation)
• Stop Loss: Above $88.50, limiting risk in case of unexpected bullish reversal.
Bullish Scenario (counter-trend play):
• Entry Trigger: Strong recovery and hold above $89.00.
Profit Targets:
• Target 1: $90.50 (initial resistance)
• Target 2: $92.50 (secondary resistance level)
• Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $86.50 to tightly manage risk.
The rapid shifts in bond yields and tariffs are causing heightened market volatility. Investors must remain vigilant and maintain strict risk management. Watch these key TLT levels closely, especially amid ongoing tariff news and bond market reactions.
Note
TLT🧠 Refresher: Japan & U.S. Bond Market Dynamics (Circa 2022)In late 2022, U.S. 10-year yields surged to around 4.25% to 4.33%, causing intense volatility.
Around this same time, Japan intervened in its currency markets to prop up the yen, which had collapsed due to the growing interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan.
Market participants speculated that Japan might have to sell U.S. Treasuries to fund that yen-buying intervention.
Ironically, this concern triggered a short-term top in 10-year yields—bond buyers stepped in, and yields pulled back from the highs.
Why It Felt Like a Coordinated Top
The U.S. Treasury and global central banks (especially in Asia) were believed to be communicating closely to stabilize markets.
That moment in 2022 marked the top of the U.S. 10-year yield before it retreated briefly into year-end.
It was also during Biden’s term, against aggressive Fed hikes, a strong dollar, and growing global financial strain.
Note
The tantrum will subside when Trump changes his policies and retracts the 145%, and the same goes for China.But right now, with China and Japan being the top two treasury holders and their markets/currencies misbehaving, the United States is no longer seen as a flight to safety; if anything, they cannot run away fast enough!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.