Bearish on TLT
I decided to take a closer look at this ETF when an analyst wrote an article commenting that it is time to get bullish on 20+ year treasury bond etf, with strong support in the 85 region.
This etf has been on a bearish trend since Mar 2020 and I would label this trend as an impulsive wave. As depicted in my chart, TLT is now on the path of wave v of a third wave extension, with a target price of 68. This target price is equivalent to a 2.618 extension of wave 1. Upon reaching this target price, a reversal will bring the etf to a target price of 108 as wave 4, a 0.382 retracement of wave 3. Most likely wave 4 will be a triangle or zigzag before heading finally down to region of 70 to 59, thereby completing the impulsive 5 wave pattern.
This etf has been on a bearish trend since Mar 2020 and I would label this trend as an impulsive wave. As depicted in my chart, TLT is now on the path of wave v of a third wave extension, with a target price of 68. This target price is equivalent to a 2.618 extension of wave 1. Upon reaching this target price, a reversal will bring the etf to a target price of 108 as wave 4, a 0.382 retracement of wave 3. Most likely wave 4 will be a triangle or zigzag before heading finally down to region of 70 to 59, thereby completing the impulsive 5 wave pattern.
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