Bonds are sniffing out deflation and falling rates, which'll happen when Asia (China and Japan) start devaluing and selling things off for dollars (incl. treasuries). This will be a bull bond market soon. I don't quite see this taking off yet, so we could retest the breakout again, but could launch from here.
I like building a position in this, but I'll be buying calls in this soon if this retests. I see those calls returning 20x!! I'll update that when and IF it happens. For now, start scaling in this badboy! Check out my TLT thread for the darkpool buying on TMF.
Major money, will wait on a retracement to enter this (maybe before next July FOMC), watching closely...
Note
Updated projects, this might just take off, so then I'll add above the first pullback after the green bar. If it comes back down to the triangle (pretty please) then I will buy up all the calls I can.
This thing flips quickly, in a matter of DAYS. Most people would buy a straddle (call and put) and exercise each leg as it goes ITM, but I may try to swing from the tops (buy puts before going down and buying calls on the third leg up) knowing the timing if the spread allows it (doubt it).
This play will be very short and will last less than a month, maybe a week or two tops.
Up 100%, down 50%, up 42% before it levels off from the rate cuts and money rotates into stocks. We may get over extensions, so this will require fighter-pilot concentration...
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