Yield is technically toppish. Closing month with bearish pinbar
Fundamentals don't look pretty with the inflation being far greater than the interest rates, but technically we are toppish on the yield.
Yes, we broke out of a 40y channel, which makes us shift from bull bond market to neutral bond market, unless we would close the month extremely bull in one of the next months.
Technicals indicate we could trade back to 2pct, but fundamentally this is hard to justify.
Interest rates could hover between 2pct and 4pct. (2pct being recent historical support, 4pct being trendline resistance in the future)
Bond market trading bull (interest going down) last three weeks, forming bearish pinbar on the monthly.
Summarized:
- Bearish monthly pinbar
- Rejection of the resistance trendline formed by 2 earlier tops in late 2013 and late 2018.
- RSI overbought and oversold have historically nicely led to sharp reversion. Monthly overbought RSI could indicate shar reversion.
Bond market can continue bull / bear on the yield.
Yes, we broke out of a 40y channel, which makes us shift from bull bond market to neutral bond market, unless we would close the month extremely bull in one of the next months.
Technicals indicate we could trade back to 2pct, but fundamentally this is hard to justify.
Interest rates could hover between 2pct and 4pct. (2pct being recent historical support, 4pct being trendline resistance in the future)
Bond market trading bull (interest going down) last three weeks, forming bearish pinbar on the monthly.
Summarized:
- Bearish monthly pinbar
- Rejection of the resistance trendline formed by 2 earlier tops in late 2013 and late 2018.
- RSI overbought and oversold have historically nicely led to sharp reversion. Monthly overbought RSI could indicate shar reversion.
Bond market can continue bull / bear on the yield.
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