TON will likely lose up to 20% of it´s value

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In my opinion the pwProfile (previous week profile) is not bullish. This looks a lot like shorts covering. Long term-holders are taking profits off their shorts. The recent uptrend left a big zone of singleprints behind which could get filled at some point. The context of the singleprints within a possible bearish profile rotation matches very well.

Up here we are witnessing bracketing (consolidation) on decreasing volume in comparion to the uptrend caused by shorts covering. So far that´s not what bulls wanna see. Currently the 6th - 4 hr candle is rejecting the pwVAH. (previous weeky value area high). That isn´t acceptance, it is rejection. People do not see the pwVAH and prices above as fair. This was my original basis for a short trade from here.

On Monday price has put a first potential swing high as "excess" above the pwVAH. This happened on decreasing volume, that´s why I am defining this as excess. A place where short-term buyers do not get accompanied by long-term buyers. That high got tested yesterday, but also on decreasing buying volume and price fell back below the pwVAH.

After checking the local daily profiles with the help of TPO, we can see that during this bracketing time, daily profiles are overlapping, marking a potential end of the local uptrend.

The whole TPO bracketing looks like "fading bracket extremes". Price is literally "hanging" at one extreme on decreasing volume, the pwVAH, defined by multiple days of overlapping values.

If bulls want to claim this and pump higher, they need to close several 4 hr candles above the pwVAH, build volume with an increase of buyers. As long as this doesn´t happen, I am going for the short trade which is offering potential high reward and low risk.

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