Another month has passed since I shared this chart. We are now past the half way point for this bull run. Over the next 3 months, this is typically were the market starts to reach escape velocity.
✅ Month 15 of 29 month bull run (past halfway now) ✅ Month 15 of prior cycles (green boxes) were followed by major upward price movements. ✅ An ascending triangle or compression of the market cap can be seen via a series of higher lows held up by a diagonal support line, market cap is also contained by the overhead all time highs.
⚠️What's interesting is the TOTAL market cap has not made an all time high yet 👀
⏳The 10 month moving average is at 2.06T, we are presently under it at 2.04T however there are 16 days left in August before we have a candle close. Something to watch. It not definitive, but if we could hold above the 10 month it would be very encouraging. The 10 month moving average is still sloping up the way too which is telling.
⏳ Given the unavoidable recession concerns, I have included a Black Swan Line. I do not see this as the most likely outcome however its worth having a back the truck up line in the event of mass panic. This would be a great level for long term hodlers to enter, and could always use a level under the line as a stop for BTC price. Summary I remain bullish mainly due to where we are in the bull market cycle as per the chart timing above. We are fighting the 10 month moving average and it remains upward sloping. We have an ascending triangle of sorts forming and an underside diagonal support line we can watch as an increased risk level (if lost). The monthly candle presently looks like a hammer reversal candle. Patience is the name of the game here for long term hodlers.
Typically Aug/Sept are thee worst months for BTC price performance, so we should expect consolidation, sideways and a possible churn slightly lower before the market continues its ascent towards the end of Sept, start of Oct 2024. Looking ahead, the Christmas season often brings renewed excitement to the market. That all starts with the "Halloween effect" in October. All will be revealed with 60 days. Stay busy folks 🙌
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