Long

Updated

I think i'm buying the mess. Even upcoming.

Depite the FTX / Alameda madness (likely more will come) i'm going to BUY along the next few weeks.
Both BTC and selected altcoins.

That's the plan, whatever is gonna happen.
Whole market Analysis, on TF 2W:

1) Possible double bottom
2) Fallng wedge (possible breakout)
3) Close to Jan '18 high (support)
4) Volume accent
5) Stoch RSI recovering form oversold
6) RSI showing a bullish divergence and rising
7) MACD flattening

Feel this whole market may have a +50% from here up into its sleeve and any further down may end into a bear trap.
All in all i feel this is moving towards the 1T mark again. For starters.

Prettified chart:

Alcoin-only chart (prettified as well)

Pretty similar.

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FTX formally bankrupt.
Interesting weeks ahead.

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Orders ready, as per:

Looking for further opportunities, no hurry.

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Eager to buy.
wating for opportunity.

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Revised battle plan:

* 1/3 liquidity at hand, i'm going to target the yellow area, having an opportunity. Would like to intercept a failed low / bounce there.

* 1/3 liquidity pre-allocated into (updated) limit orders (4) within the 14k to 12k range. This in order to cover the short term worst scenario. If such scenario materializes i'd hopefully "cut some wicks" there.

Wouldn't expect to score a perfect fill for now.

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Hmm ... unless we get a full meltdown of Genesis we may get a bounce pretty soon.

D is diverging, with CMF, RSI and Stoch recovering.
Similar picture on ETH.

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in case of a bounce 17,2k is the first key level.

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Bought a few lots @16109$.

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Added a traling stop close to 16500$ mark.

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Boring PA.

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Out at 16518 (stopped).
A measly 2,5%, but at least it was quick bucks.

Will sit on the sidelines awaiting events.
16300$ short term support.

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Intraday scenario:

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Fear, FUD and most people prone to panic ...

Looking forward to buying opportunities.

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Quick scenario assessment: in my opinion scenario is still unchanged.

Back in june i foresaw 2 possible routes up, the "higher" through a double bottom (Adm/Eve) and the "lower" through a "conventional" bottoming.
Speaking of the "lower" route i simply drafted on June 28th was supposed to play roughly this way:

There i considered the risk for the bounce i forecasted on June 18th to be short lived, failing to pierce through 28k.
Then a further test of support, supposedly within the second half of november, could lead to a breakdown.

If so price would be prone to complete a conventional bottoming (like in previous cycles) by touching the yellow "cup" edges once or more times.

This was some basic TA, drawn months before the whole FTX mess.
So nothing entirely unpredictable happened, TA wise.

So, what now ?

Trying to pinpoint the exact contact points of a bottoming phase is pretty pointless.
Moreover for now we still sit somewhat between the upper and the lower route.
With Hash Ribbons currently painting a further miners' capitulation.

In my opinion we have to see through all the FUD, fear and panic in order to acknowledge that anywere in-between the two aforementioned routes there is a space of opportunity.
Meaning that 17,5k is basically the upper bound of an interesting accumulation zone.

At this point, as an investor, i'm more concerned about methodically building my position here rather than about lazy bottom guessing.
That's the reason i've already set my buying perimeter, resorting to keep just 1/3 of ammo at hand.

Opportunities come, opportunities go.
Let's play our cards.

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Alts market:

Looking forward to the red zone.

Cannot exclude final a dip into green, which would be bargain zone imho, but wouldn't count on it. R:R is good already, get prepared.

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BTC market not much different.

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2W TF: Personally i think that -risk wise- the moment green pierces up red may be the "perfect" long entry.

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On W TF i'd keep an eye at RSI wedge breakout.

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Meanwhile on M CMF sits at historical low, making a retest.

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Patiently waiting for breakout (confirmation or rejection) of this acsending triangle visible on D. I'd say within 4 days.

If it breaks up on volume it would be possible to follow (with a stop).
If it breaks down (rejection) it would likely provide a very good entry opportunity.

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Following.

Yet: volume or is not gonna happen.

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Breakout of RSI/W.
Needs confirmation on W close.

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Don't forget to have a stop, if you're following this movement.

Avoid FTX style trading ;)

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Broke channel, testting MA20/D.

Stopped already.
Small profit done, not worth the effort.

Looking for a further entry.

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Dominance broke out, now pushing MA20/W.

It needs to break 42,7 in order to move towards the upper BB.
Failing that i think it may temporarily wick down again, but it's poised to move higher.

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First Buy order got filled @16595$

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Well, finally something is going to happen.

Upcoming test of trendline and MA20/D.
Bulls should try to breakout and manage to reach at least the 17100/17200$ or bears will take over again.

Likely an interesting week.
Eyes on NASDAQ, DXY and Gold as well.

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Over the horizon:

Williams / 2W

MACD / 2W

Awaiting crossover.

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This is Godmode M:

Lok for a (unprecedented) bottoming of the dots sequence.

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Short term: pretty messy, a confirmation of this (sparse) descending triangle should be avoided, since it would theoretically imply possibility of new lows.

Let's see whether Bitcoin is able to reject such pattern.

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Come on.

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Time to show some sign of strength, Bitcoin

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Bought some lots more.
2/3 position complete.

1/3 will sit in my pocket for now.

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RSI/W broke out at last.
First interesting signal in a while.

Let's look for a confirmation this week, as a short term pullback is likely.
Meawhile eyes on MACD/2W and Willy/2W, we're looking for a crossover.

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A "manageable" pullback would likely put MA20/W (now 18,3k) into the crosshair.

That's the first big hurdle to overcome in order to achieve a trend reversal.
Once Bitcoin will pierce it (and confirm on 2 weekly close) things will start to gain some serious traction.

For now we've just a candidate ascending triangle.
Let's observe it and hope it won't be rejected.

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MACD/2W as of now:

Let's have patience.

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Close to 17,5k.
Nice.

Don't forget to have a stop, at BE worst case, if you dare to ride this. Never change a profit into a loss.

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What matters is a confirmation on next W close, which is pretty far.

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GodMode, monthly timeframe:

No need for comments.
To be checked back at the end of january.

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Hash Ribbons:

Maybe a blue dot is coming within few weeks-

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A perfect move up to MA20/W.

Now we're about to decide upcoming trend.

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BTC overbought, ovestretched (TD count 12 on D).
US Markets facing an important test today and tomorrow.

Rollercoaster likely ahead.
Have a stop and no hurry.

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Keep an eye on SP500 / Nasdaq.

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Blue Dot may happen sooner than few weeks ...

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Hello, crypto ...

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BTC is pushing upper bound of the resistance area:

Breaking through 19240$ on BTCUSD would imply Parabolic SAR flip on weekly.
That's one of the most statistically reliable indicators (>80%) of a reversal, when such flips happens from above MA20/W.

Watch it, as well as MACD 2W, CMF 2W and Hash Ribbons.

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Pretty close to 20k already.
Hope you enjoyed the ride so far.

Remember it's up to you managing your profit, which on BTC should be already up to +20/25% if you managed to buy the weakness as proposed into OP.

So far so good, that's a promising start, BUT we still need to see the W close.

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I've very rarely seen 2-3 tall candles completely ABOVE the daily Bollinger Bars, like this:

Volume still rising, for now.
Today candle will be pretty interesting.

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TD count 14 achieved.
Pretty extended strip, from now onwards it's basically a countdown to a pullback.

Letting alone that, we have three white soldiers on volume on D.
Furthermore the last two candles opened above the upper BB, as noted yesterday.
A pretty impressive impulse.

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Watch out for breakout.

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New high 21,4k.

Fine, as neither the three white soldiers nor the pennant breakout lied.
Very extended upmove, in terms of TD count.

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Time for some further scenario evaluation, given in the opening post i mentioned the 1T market cap mark and we're now pretty close already.

Speaking about BTC (my main focus here), two things we know already.

1) Indeed we had a bear trap unfolding under 17k, as suggested.
2) The overall timing of this analysis was spot on, since the 15,4k low actually happened within the same 2W tick.

If you bought either BTC or ETH back in november you're already sitting on a 25-35% profit.

I'd encourage you to take adequate measures to protect it, such as a trailing stop, unless you're strictly going for the long term.
There's nothing wrong in taking some profit along the way up.

Regarding scenario assessment, in my opinion we're close to a critical junction.

The original 1T mark was an educated guess, based on where the MA200/W (resistance) would have likely been at the moment of the test.
As you may otice below (look at the red MM), such guess was not far off, as test is taking place now already, in the 0,956-0,961T range.

From now onwards, as depicted above, we may have 2 distinct routes up.
The luwer one likely implying a retest of MA20/W (blue MM, now support) and later an inverted H&S or some other reversal pattern.

Clearly such plan would be invalidated in case of a strong and confirmed breakdown of MA20/W.

(comment reposted, with some typos fixed)

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Meanwhile this is ETH, on monthly.

Interestingly its low still dates back to june, partly due to unavailability of withrawal options for staking.

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Back on the topic of the rare occurrences of daily candles entirely lying above the upper bollinger band:

We had 2 consecutive cases.
The red bars below show the previous single occurrences:

Anyway, short term BTC sits on its 17th (green) TD candle on D.
Even for Bitcoin standards that's am extremely overstretched strip.
Mind that.

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Still under resistance (MA200/W).
Time is getting short for bulls, as GodMode is alrready starting to roll over.

RSI / Stoch RSI is overbought.
TD count is 16 and counting.

Once more, i'd recommend taking measures for protecting profit, if you didn't already (you always should).
Easiest wasy is a trailing stop, my personal pick in circumstances like this.

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4H: RSI squeezed between rising support and resistance. Bearish divergence.

Watch that support.

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Tightening my stop.

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Stopped slightly above the 21,3k mark.
Will evaluate further entry, no hurry.

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Pullback ongoing:

Watch resistance.

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Had my stop limit buy filled above resistance, slightly above the 21700$ mark, due to slippage

Pretty inefficient entry, to be fair. I wasn't expecting this cup & handle to close this soon.

Lesson learned.

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Next big hurdle is right ahead.

Cluster of resistance, the main one being the well known MA200/W.
Notice also the impending crossover and the log trendline.

Have an ordinary stop to deal with the test, as it may be brutal.

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Zooming out on such trendline(s):

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Feels like it gonna hurt.

Let's see.

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On a side note, once red flips down and/or green crosses it down we'll get some substantial pullback. Gravity rule.

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Tough.
Confluence of 4 resistances, rejection is likely.

Don't get caught off guard.
Ride it with a stop.

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Watching from the sideline:

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Hmm ... bears failed takedown.

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A clear breakout of inner resistance, yet undecisive.

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Market reached 1.1T

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A word of warning.

BTC already reached 19 consecutive daily candles with overbought RSI. very rarely such strips exceed 24 to 30 candles, with the notable exception of April 2013.

These are rare occurrences and usually end with a double digit % flashcrash.

So don't get caught off guard.

Once again, let me stress we're at a strong resistance.
Manage your profit accordingly.

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Current scenario, with resistance highlighted.

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Another minor push slightly above 24k area.
A bit closer to resistence core, scenario still unchanged.

Weekly:

Looking from the sidelines, profit locked in with a stop.

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A look at D:

Interim support of Jan 23th still holding, but we have a wedge formation and a bearish divergence on W.
In my opinion unless a push and short squeeze can be achieved any soon, e.g. within a handful of days, an impulsive pullback would likely follow.

Culprit of this resistance area sits above the 25k mark, as per the above W chart.

Conversely, any move down below the 22,7-22,3 interim support area should be handled very carefully.

Soon we'll know better.

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hmmm gold seemingly painting a high / top.
Let's see ...

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Wedge confirmed, at first support.

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Breaking both supportx would imply chance of the below scenario gaining traction:

Watching from the sidelinesfor now.

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Best option would be having those 2 (blue) liquidity pools merging, above MA20/W and possibly above 2017 high. That would be a nice deep support.

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Ok, let's see ...

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Buy back orders set in uppre half of both blue zones.

Let's see.

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Upper bound of resistance (FIB 0.382) hit twice, finally bouncing back to resistance.

Picture unchanged, eyes on volume.

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Waiting and watching.

Diamond or half staff.

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Zoom on lower TF:

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Zoom in:

Zoom out:

Bids ready in the blue box, enough for now.

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Bids started filling along the way down.

Looking forward to an oversold D RSI for minimizing risks.

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Got served down to 19600.
Impressive move to MA20/W.

Let's see the outcome.

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Timing was pretty good.

Higher high, after a higher low.
Megaphone pattern ongoing.

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Close to upper bound of megaphone.

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Watching.

Finger crossed for a marubozu candle closing on W above upper BB.
It would likely be a game changer.

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Decent weekly close.
Nice candle and good volume.

Now getting short on time on LTF though, TD count 9 already on D.
Price may face a pullback if the below rising wedge gets confirmed.

HTF scenario unchanged, unless MA200/W is lost.

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Took partial profit close to the 28,4k mark.
About 42% in a handful of days.

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Odds of pullback increase if price fails to pierce through 28,5k within 24/36H.
Have a stop, watch out for any tretrace below the 27,9k mark.

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Pullback, unsurprisingly.

No changes to scenario, unless pierces through 25-25,5k on weekly close and/or breaks 23,7k intraweek. MA200/W is the key support.

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I have bids scattered in the 25,3-25,7k area.
For now i'm not considering higher levels.

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Model:

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Hmm ... breakout of descending channel.

That diamond *may* end in a half staff.
Anyway, i don't want to fiddle with diamonds anymore.

Placed a stop buy above the wick, just in case.

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Return-to-mean is almost achieved.
here i'd use midline of (M) BB as a guideline.

Traditionally right there is where Bitcoin accelerates.
See Nov '15, spring '19: it warped straight up into the upper half of such BBs.

So we're about to see whether this cycle is able to make a further rhyme,
provided midline of BBs (32k) to FIB 0.382 (36k) can be challenged.

While low TF are poised to struggle, monthly TF shows Stoch RSI moving up implusively from oversold, MACD approaching a crossover and a persisting bullish divergence on RSI.

So, whatever happens short term, don't underestimate the nertia of the HTF scenario.

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Meanwhile even the original 1.18T target was reached and > +50% achieved.

This analysis technically succeeded.

For now i'll make few remarks here, while i'm working on next chapter.
Hope you enjoyed the ride.

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LTF note.

A cooldown / pullback is likely to happen within days if the below rising wedge gets confirmed or TD count stretches more. Possibly a 10% scalp or more.

So watch the price action.

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