MARKETS week ahead: February 20 – 25
Last week in the news
The US inflation might be more persistent than initially expected by the market, at least per latest US inflation data, however, data on retail sales brings some confidence back. The US Treasuries reacted on the latest data, bringing 10Y yields back to the levels above the 4.2%. S&P 500 ended its first corrective week since the beginning of this year, moving back to the 5K level. Gold and USD had a relatively stable week with modest volatility, while Bitcoin had another strong week, with a push of the price toward the 53K.
The US inflation data were the ones that were moving the markets during the previous week. Inflation rate in January was standing at 3.1% y/y, a bit higher from anticipated 2.9%. Core inflation still remains elevated at level of 3.9%, above forecasted 3.7%. At the same time the Producers Price Index rose 0.3% for the month. These data implied reaction from the US Treasuries market, where the 10Y benchmark reached the highest weekly level at 4.33%. Posted figures pointed to the persistence of inflation which might impact Fed's decision to postpone expected rate cuts during the course of this year. Another consequence of the latest inflation data was that the mortgage rates in the US reached new highs at 7.14%. Mortgage rates fell to 6.6% during December, however, their latest increase comes on fears that inflation might be hotter than anticipated. On the other side, some relaxation came from data on retail sales, where they dropped in January much higher from the market forecast. Posted figure reached -0.8% on a monthly basis, a way below the market estimate of -0.1%. It showed that regardless of the January surprise in inflation, there is still some confidence that it might ease in February due to a drop on the demand side.
One of the largest crypto exchanges, Coinbase, posted better than expected results for the fourth quarter. The transaction revenue of the exchanger was up by 64%, reaching $529.3 million, which was supported by consumer and institutional investors. Coinbase shares jumped by 8% on the results. A boost in earnings has also been supported through the bitcoin exchange traded funds as Conbase serves as a custodian for eight out of ten ETF`s. However, JPMorgan analysts are still not confident over the real earnings potential of the Coinbase exchanger, as they “see both positives and negatives' ' and lack of clarity over the business, as noted in their statement.
Digital bank Revoult published its intentions to introduce a crypto currency exchange which will be suitable for “advanced traders”. Revoult currently has around 30 million customers, and is offering basic crypto services. Its new service for advanced traders will include “deeper analytical tools and lower fees than the app”.
Crypto market cap
Previous week was a green week on both spot and futures crypto markets. The vast majority of coins ended the week in a positive territory. The availability of investments in bitcoin through exchange traded funds, as well as latest higher than expected inflation data in the US pushed the crypto market toward the higher grounds during the previous week. Bitcoin`s market capitalization reached again levels above $1 trillion, where it last time was in March 2022. At the same time, total crypto market capitalization increased by 9%, reaching levels of $1.88 trillion. Total inflow of funds during the week was 149B. Daily trading volumes were also further increased during the week, reaching levels of around 130B on a daily basis, from 110B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 244B which represents a 15% surge from the beginning of this year.
Previous week was a significant one for Bitcoin as this coin managed for one more time in history to surpass the level of $1 trillion in value. The last time this happened was in March 2022. Certainly, bitcoin historically had higher values of capitalization, but considering its struggles during the previous year, this represents a sort of come-back for this coin. Bitcoin is ending the week with a weekly gain of 9.8%. Ether was following the path of general market sentiment during the week, adding to its value more than 12% or 36B. Among significant gainers in nominal terms, was Binance Coin, who added 5.6B to its market cap, increasing it by 11.7%. ADA also had a good week, with a surge in capitalization of almost $ 2B, or 10.2%. Significant gainer this time was Tron, with an increase in cap of 1.26B or 11.6%. Among altcoins with significant weekly gains in a relative terms, were Uniswap, with a surge of 14.7%, Filecoin increased its cap by 17%, while Polygon and Algorand were up by more than 10% within a single week. Other altcoins also gained during the week.
In line with the market surge, there has also been increased activity with coins in circulation. Two weeks ago Tether lost 3.1% of its coins in circulation, however, the previous week it gained back 4.7%. Solana and Filecoin increased their coins on the market by 0.8% both, while Stellar and Polkadot added 0.2% of new coins on the market.
Crypto futures market
In line with the spot market, and increased market optimism when the crypto market is in question, there have been some significant developments occurring also on the crypto futures market. Namely, for the first time, after many months, Bitcoin futures price reached the level above $ 59K, while Ether`s price breached the 2K level, and ended the week above the 3K. Although there are prices for futures maturing in December 2025, they reflect currently positive market optimism regarding the value of these coins in the future period.
BTC short term futures were last traded higher by more than 9%, in line with the spot market. The major development occurred with the longer term futures which were last traded higher around 14% on average. Futures maturing in December this year reached the last price at $55.300, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $59.425.
ETH short term futures ended the week around 12% higher from the week before. Same as with BTC, significant development was with longer term futures which ended the week more than 16% higher from the end of the week before. Futures maturing in December this year reached the price of $2.976, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at price $3.146.
The US inflation might be more persistent than initially expected by the market, at least per latest US inflation data, however, data on retail sales brings some confidence back. The US Treasuries reacted on the latest data, bringing 10Y yields back to the levels above the 4.2%. S&P 500 ended its first corrective week since the beginning of this year, moving back to the 5K level. Gold and USD had a relatively stable week with modest volatility, while Bitcoin had another strong week, with a push of the price toward the 53K.
The US inflation data were the ones that were moving the markets during the previous week. Inflation rate in January was standing at 3.1% y/y, a bit higher from anticipated 2.9%. Core inflation still remains elevated at level of 3.9%, above forecasted 3.7%. At the same time the Producers Price Index rose 0.3% for the month. These data implied reaction from the US Treasuries market, where the 10Y benchmark reached the highest weekly level at 4.33%. Posted figures pointed to the persistence of inflation which might impact Fed's decision to postpone expected rate cuts during the course of this year. Another consequence of the latest inflation data was that the mortgage rates in the US reached new highs at 7.14%. Mortgage rates fell to 6.6% during December, however, their latest increase comes on fears that inflation might be hotter than anticipated. On the other side, some relaxation came from data on retail sales, where they dropped in January much higher from the market forecast. Posted figure reached -0.8% on a monthly basis, a way below the market estimate of -0.1%. It showed that regardless of the January surprise in inflation, there is still some confidence that it might ease in February due to a drop on the demand side.
One of the largest crypto exchanges, Coinbase, posted better than expected results for the fourth quarter. The transaction revenue of the exchanger was up by 64%, reaching $529.3 million, which was supported by consumer and institutional investors. Coinbase shares jumped by 8% on the results. A boost in earnings has also been supported through the bitcoin exchange traded funds as Conbase serves as a custodian for eight out of ten ETF`s. However, JPMorgan analysts are still not confident over the real earnings potential of the Coinbase exchanger, as they “see both positives and negatives' ' and lack of clarity over the business, as noted in their statement.
Digital bank Revoult published its intentions to introduce a crypto currency exchange which will be suitable for “advanced traders”. Revoult currently has around 30 million customers, and is offering basic crypto services. Its new service for advanced traders will include “deeper analytical tools and lower fees than the app”.
Crypto market cap
Previous week was a green week on both spot and futures crypto markets. The vast majority of coins ended the week in a positive territory. The availability of investments in bitcoin through exchange traded funds, as well as latest higher than expected inflation data in the US pushed the crypto market toward the higher grounds during the previous week. Bitcoin`s market capitalization reached again levels above $1 trillion, where it last time was in March 2022. At the same time, total crypto market capitalization increased by 9%, reaching levels of $1.88 trillion. Total inflow of funds during the week was 149B. Daily trading volumes were also further increased during the week, reaching levels of around 130B on a daily basis, from 110B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 244B which represents a 15% surge from the beginning of this year.
Previous week was a significant one for Bitcoin as this coin managed for one more time in history to surpass the level of $1 trillion in value. The last time this happened was in March 2022. Certainly, bitcoin historically had higher values of capitalization, but considering its struggles during the previous year, this represents a sort of come-back for this coin. Bitcoin is ending the week with a weekly gain of 9.8%. Ether was following the path of general market sentiment during the week, adding to its value more than 12% or 36B. Among significant gainers in nominal terms, was Binance Coin, who added 5.6B to its market cap, increasing it by 11.7%. ADA also had a good week, with a surge in capitalization of almost $ 2B, or 10.2%. Significant gainer this time was Tron, with an increase in cap of 1.26B or 11.6%. Among altcoins with significant weekly gains in a relative terms, were Uniswap, with a surge of 14.7%, Filecoin increased its cap by 17%, while Polygon and Algorand were up by more than 10% within a single week. Other altcoins also gained during the week.
In line with the market surge, there has also been increased activity with coins in circulation. Two weeks ago Tether lost 3.1% of its coins in circulation, however, the previous week it gained back 4.7%. Solana and Filecoin increased their coins on the market by 0.8% both, while Stellar and Polkadot added 0.2% of new coins on the market.
Crypto futures market
In line with the spot market, and increased market optimism when the crypto market is in question, there have been some significant developments occurring also on the crypto futures market. Namely, for the first time, after many months, Bitcoin futures price reached the level above $ 59K, while Ether`s price breached the 2K level, and ended the week above the 3K. Although there are prices for futures maturing in December 2025, they reflect currently positive market optimism regarding the value of these coins in the future period.
BTC short term futures were last traded higher by more than 9%, in line with the spot market. The major development occurred with the longer term futures which were last traded higher around 14% on average. Futures maturing in December this year reached the last price at $55.300, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $59.425.
ETH short term futures ended the week around 12% higher from the week before. Same as with BTC, significant development was with longer term futures which ended the week more than 16% higher from the end of the week before. Futures maturing in December this year reached the price of $2.976, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at price $3.146.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.