MARKETS week ahead: April 22 – 27
Last week in the news
Higher for longer was for one more time rhetoric which influenced market sentiment during the previous week. In expectation of less rate cuts during this year, the US equities entered into the correction mode, with the S&P 500 ending the week at level of 4.967. The US Treasuries had another relatively strong week, where 10Y benchmark sustained levels above 4.6%. The price of gold remained under the influence of geopolitics, while the US Dollar also held in strength during the week. The crypto market was recovering from a strong sell-off two weeks ago, but still sustained relatively higher volatility in expectation of Bitcoin halving, which occurred this weekend. Bitcoin is ending the week above the $ 65K levels.
The US economy continues to show its resilience to tight monetary policy. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was much higher from market estimate of 0.3%. This was another issue for markets, considering its potential impact on inflation in the coming period. Markets are currently losing positive sentiment, and adjusting positions accordingly, in expectation that three rate cuts will not occur during the course of this year.
CNBC spoke with leading ECB economists during the IMF Spring Meeting in New York, held last week. The ECB President Lagarde once again noted her standing from the last ECB meeting, that it could be expected first rate cut in June within the European Zone, in case that inflation continues to move with a clear down trend. However, in case of some extreme shocks, the rates might stay on hold. She noted this disclaimer considering recent negative developments in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices. Also, other twelve members of the Council Board were in agreement with such a course of action in June, and also aligned with potential threats coming from geopolitical issues.
Quite a positive sentiment came last week from CEO of VanEck fund, Jan van Eck. He noted in his opinion that the world economy is starting its new growth phase, putting special emphasis on China, and suggested that investors should eye commodities now. At the same time, it should be noted that his funds have large exposures toward commodities, including gold and copper.
The long awaited Bitcoin halving started early Saturday, where the 840.000th block was added to the blockchain. Fees already soared while at the same time a new Bitcoin-based system was launched. The name of the new system is Runes. Although BTC`s price was relatively volatile during the week, still the BTC held strongly around the level of 65K. Still, whales took the chance to buy the BTC dip at 60K. News are reporting that a total of 1.2B worth of BTC was bought during this time.
Crypto market cap
Bitcoin halving took place. Markets were waiting with anticipation for this event, considering that no one was really sure where the price might go prior to halving. On one side were analysts who were noting a possibility that the price might significantly drop, while on the other side were the ones noting that the price will hold and move further to the upside in the coming period. Now that the event passed, we know that the price managed to hold around $ 65K, although there had been some prior higher volatility. BTC whales took the opportunity to buy the dip and increase their positions in this coin. Two weeks ago, there was a huge sell off on the crypto market, however, the situation relatively stabilized during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by modest 1% on a weekly level, losing a total 25B. Daily trading volumes decreased to the level of 128B on a daily basis, from 131B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 680B, which represents a 42% surge from the beginning of this year.
Although the majority of altcoins were leading the market to the upside, BTC and ETH are the ones which lost in value on a weekly basis. BTC dropped by a modest 2.3%, where the coin lost around 30B in the market cap. ETH was down by 1.2%, where around 4.8B was a decrease in its market capitalisation. Bitcoin Gold also lost some of its value during the week, dropping its market cap by 3%. There were several altcoins, who ended the week in red, like Monero, Binance Coin and Tron, but the drop was less than 1% in value. Majority of altcoins were leading the market to the upside. In this sense, Cardano increased its market cap by 1.1B, which is an increase of 6.5% on a weekly basis. Polkadot should be especially mentioned as the coin added more than $ 3B to the total crypto market cap, increasing its own by 4.2%. Solana also added $ 3B which is an increase of 4.7% on a weekly level for this coin. Among excellent weekly performers in relative terms were Filecoin and Maker, where both managed to increase market cap by more than 11%. Interestingly, THETA was one of coins who managed to add 10.5% to its market value. Other altcoins were mostly traded higher between 2% and 8% on a weekly level.
Relatively stronger developments continue when coins in circulation are in question. During the previous week Filecoin added 0.4% of new coins on the market, while Miota`s number of coins were higher by 0.6%. Certainly, this week's winner was Monero, with an increase in circulating coins by 5.4%. On the opposite side was Litecoin, who, this time, decreased its coins on the market by even 4%.
Crypto futures market
In line with the spot market, there were some major developments on the crypto futures market during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower for all maturities. It should be taken into account that CME was closed during the weekend, in which sense, developments during the weekend are still not fully priced in futures. In this sense, some increase in futures prices are possible in Monday trading sessions.
BTC short term futures were last traded by some 5% lower from the end of the week before, while the longer term ones were down by less than 10%. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $67.450, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $72.160. This was a significant drop, considering that two weeks ago these futures were traded at $80.095 for the first time in history.
ETH short term futures were also down by some 4% on average, while the major drop was with the longer term ones, which closed the week down by some 12.8% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year reached the price at $3.246, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $3.377.
Higher for longer was for one more time rhetoric which influenced market sentiment during the previous week. In expectation of less rate cuts during this year, the US equities entered into the correction mode, with the S&P 500 ending the week at level of 4.967. The US Treasuries had another relatively strong week, where 10Y benchmark sustained levels above 4.6%. The price of gold remained under the influence of geopolitics, while the US Dollar also held in strength during the week. The crypto market was recovering from a strong sell-off two weeks ago, but still sustained relatively higher volatility in expectation of Bitcoin halving, which occurred this weekend. Bitcoin is ending the week above the $ 65K levels.
The US economy continues to show its resilience to tight monetary policy. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was much higher from market estimate of 0.3%. This was another issue for markets, considering its potential impact on inflation in the coming period. Markets are currently losing positive sentiment, and adjusting positions accordingly, in expectation that three rate cuts will not occur during the course of this year.
CNBC spoke with leading ECB economists during the IMF Spring Meeting in New York, held last week. The ECB President Lagarde once again noted her standing from the last ECB meeting, that it could be expected first rate cut in June within the European Zone, in case that inflation continues to move with a clear down trend. However, in case of some extreme shocks, the rates might stay on hold. She noted this disclaimer considering recent negative developments in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices. Also, other twelve members of the Council Board were in agreement with such a course of action in June, and also aligned with potential threats coming from geopolitical issues.
Quite a positive sentiment came last week from CEO of VanEck fund, Jan van Eck. He noted in his opinion that the world economy is starting its new growth phase, putting special emphasis on China, and suggested that investors should eye commodities now. At the same time, it should be noted that his funds have large exposures toward commodities, including gold and copper.
The long awaited Bitcoin halving started early Saturday, where the 840.000th block was added to the blockchain. Fees already soared while at the same time a new Bitcoin-based system was launched. The name of the new system is Runes. Although BTC`s price was relatively volatile during the week, still the BTC held strongly around the level of 65K. Still, whales took the chance to buy the BTC dip at 60K. News are reporting that a total of 1.2B worth of BTC was bought during this time.
Crypto market cap
Bitcoin halving took place. Markets were waiting with anticipation for this event, considering that no one was really sure where the price might go prior to halving. On one side were analysts who were noting a possibility that the price might significantly drop, while on the other side were the ones noting that the price will hold and move further to the upside in the coming period. Now that the event passed, we know that the price managed to hold around $ 65K, although there had been some prior higher volatility. BTC whales took the opportunity to buy the dip and increase their positions in this coin. Two weeks ago, there was a huge sell off on the crypto market, however, the situation relatively stabilized during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by modest 1% on a weekly level, losing a total 25B. Daily trading volumes decreased to the level of 128B on a daily basis, from 131B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 680B, which represents a 42% surge from the beginning of this year.
Although the majority of altcoins were leading the market to the upside, BTC and ETH are the ones which lost in value on a weekly basis. BTC dropped by a modest 2.3%, where the coin lost around 30B in the market cap. ETH was down by 1.2%, where around 4.8B was a decrease in its market capitalisation. Bitcoin Gold also lost some of its value during the week, dropping its market cap by 3%. There were several altcoins, who ended the week in red, like Monero, Binance Coin and Tron, but the drop was less than 1% in value. Majority of altcoins were leading the market to the upside. In this sense, Cardano increased its market cap by 1.1B, which is an increase of 6.5% on a weekly basis. Polkadot should be especially mentioned as the coin added more than $ 3B to the total crypto market cap, increasing its own by 4.2%. Solana also added $ 3B which is an increase of 4.7% on a weekly level for this coin. Among excellent weekly performers in relative terms were Filecoin and Maker, where both managed to increase market cap by more than 11%. Interestingly, THETA was one of coins who managed to add 10.5% to its market value. Other altcoins were mostly traded higher between 2% and 8% on a weekly level.
Relatively stronger developments continue when coins in circulation are in question. During the previous week Filecoin added 0.4% of new coins on the market, while Miota`s number of coins were higher by 0.6%. Certainly, this week's winner was Monero, with an increase in circulating coins by 5.4%. On the opposite side was Litecoin, who, this time, decreased its coins on the market by even 4%.
Crypto futures market
In line with the spot market, there were some major developments on the crypto futures market during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower for all maturities. It should be taken into account that CME was closed during the weekend, in which sense, developments during the weekend are still not fully priced in futures. In this sense, some increase in futures prices are possible in Monday trading sessions.
BTC short term futures were last traded by some 5% lower from the end of the week before, while the longer term ones were down by less than 10%. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $67.450, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $72.160. This was a significant drop, considering that two weeks ago these futures were traded at $80.095 for the first time in history.
ETH short term futures were also down by some 4% on average, while the major drop was with the longer term ones, which closed the week down by some 12.8% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year reached the price at $3.246, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $3.377.
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