MARKETS week ahead: November 13 – 19
Last week in the news
Fed Chair Powell's speech one more time impacted the market sentiment, where EU equities finished the week lower, while positive sentiment still holds the US equities. Gold and commodities eased during the previous week, as well as 10Y US Treasuries. The crypto markets continue to be under impact of the ETF frenzy, which might continue to hold in the weeks to come. Bitcoin tested levels above 37K; however, 38K resistance remains a hard task.
Fed Chair Powell held a speech for the IMF audience in Washington during the previous week, where he noted that he is still not sure if he and his Fed colleagues have done enough to bring the inflation down to targeted 2%. He noted that they are still balancing between doing too much and doing too little. He also addressed the market expectations that the Fed might cut rates during the course of the next year, noting that Fed will increase further interest rates if inflation “reaccelerates”. After the speech, the equity market headed for lower levels, while 2Y Treasury yields again headed toward the 5%.
Rating agencies continue to lose confidence in the US Government. During the previous week, the rating agency Moody's cut the US long term credit rating to negative from stable. This is the result of rising risks when the country's fiscal policy is in question. As noted in the agency's statement “in the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues”, the agency puts into question further debt affordability for the US Government.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed his opinion that the SEC has “lost sight of their mission to protect investors” in an interview with CNBC. The SEC and the crypto industry have been on different sides for some time now. While, on one side SEC is insisting to put the crypto industry into the current legal framework related to securities, even through legal disputes, the crypto industry is not ready to comply, requesting a different set of laws. Several legal cases have been won, where dispute with Ripple was the first, and lasted for more than two years. Ripple won as the judge ruled that XRP is not a security. Garlinghouse expressed his hopes that the crypto regulation will stop being ruled by court decisions and that laws governing digital currencies will be adopted by the Congress.
While the spot BTC ETF frenzy is still hot on the market, another one hit it during the previous week. There has been news that BlackRock, the largest asset management fund in the world, is seeking ways to list its first ETH ETF, while still waiting for the SEC`s approval of its first BTC ETF. The news came out that the entity called iShares Ethereum Trust has been registered in Delaware, US. Whether this news is true, BlackRock officials refused to comment, however, ETH was significantly supported with it, reaching 2.1K during the week.
The United Kingdom has scheduled a world conference for crypto tax evasion for the year 2027. The aim of this initiative is to set rules by which tax authorities between countries, signatories of the agreement, will exchange information between each other with the aim to fight offshore crypto tax evasion. Currently 48 countries signed up, however, several largest countries when it comes to the crypto industry, like Turkey, India, China, African countries and Russia are not within signatory to the statement.
Crypto market cap
ETF frenzy is widely shaking the crypto market. During the last few weeks it was all about potential introduction of the first spot BTC ETF, however, starting from the previous week, the frenzy added to it Ethereum`s token ETH. Namely, there has been published news that BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, is seeking the way to list its first spot EFH ETF. The company refused to comment on this news, so for the moment, there is a question whether such news is officially true or not. Still, as markets like to buy the news and later sell the fact, it did not matter too much for investors who were rushing to invest both into BTC and ETH. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 10% during the week, adding 125B to its value. The crypto market cap reached the level of almost $1.4 trillion, the last time seen in April last year. Daily trading volumes were significantly increased during the week, reaching a level of 104B on a daily basis, which might be treated as the crypto market is getting back to its old track. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 84%, where it has added total 637B to the market cap.
It was another positive week for almost all crypto coins on the crypto market. Gains during the week are reminiscent of a period when the crypto market was booming. Almost all coins gained during the week, with BTC and ETH leading the market. In nominal terms BTC was once again the weekly winner of the market, which added 47B to its market cap or almost 7%. ETH managed to beat BTC in relative terms, by increasing its market cap by 13.3%, adding to it almost 30B on a weekly basis. Major altcoins also had significant gains, like Solana, with an incredible weekly increase in value of 43% where it has added a total 7.5B to its market cap. Among significant gainers are also BNB, which gained 2.8B or 8%, LINK added $2.8% or 45%, ADA surged by 2.45B or 21.5%. Both Polkadot and Polygon increased their market cap by 1.4B both, increasing it by around 24%. It should be noted also significant gain made by XRP of 3.4B or 10.6% on a weekly basis. All other altcoins were among weekly gainers.
There has also been significant activity when it comes to coins in circulation. Tether is back in the game, by adding 1.5% coins and increasing its market value for this amount. Polkadot managed to increase its circulating coins by 4.6%, while Algorand`s coins were up by 1.0%. Filecoin has also added new coins into circulation of 0.9% w/w. There have been a lot of other altcoins which increased the number of available coins by at least 0.1%.
Crypto futures market
The frenzy from the BTC and ETH spot market was also reflected in the futures market for these coins. BTC short term futures were last traded higher by more than 7%, while the longer term ones were up by more than 4%. Futures maturing in December 2023 were last traded at price $37.985 or 7.59% higher from the week before, while those maturing in December next year closed the week at price of $39.885. It is interesting to note that BTC futures maturing in March 2025 reached the price of $40.615, which is a significant breakthrough when it comes to the expectations of the BTC price for the future period.
ETH futures were strongly supported by the unconfirmed news that BlackRock will probably file for the ETH ETF in the future period. Short term futures were traded higher by an incredible 14%, while long term ones were up by more than 12% on a weekly basis. ETH futures maturing in December this year finished the week at price $2.135, while those maturing in December next year were last traded at $2.175. It is positive for ETH that its price for the future period managed to finally break the 2K psychological line.
Fed Chair Powell's speech one more time impacted the market sentiment, where EU equities finished the week lower, while positive sentiment still holds the US equities. Gold and commodities eased during the previous week, as well as 10Y US Treasuries. The crypto markets continue to be under impact of the ETF frenzy, which might continue to hold in the weeks to come. Bitcoin tested levels above 37K; however, 38K resistance remains a hard task.
Fed Chair Powell held a speech for the IMF audience in Washington during the previous week, where he noted that he is still not sure if he and his Fed colleagues have done enough to bring the inflation down to targeted 2%. He noted that they are still balancing between doing too much and doing too little. He also addressed the market expectations that the Fed might cut rates during the course of the next year, noting that Fed will increase further interest rates if inflation “reaccelerates”. After the speech, the equity market headed for lower levels, while 2Y Treasury yields again headed toward the 5%.
Rating agencies continue to lose confidence in the US Government. During the previous week, the rating agency Moody's cut the US long term credit rating to negative from stable. This is the result of rising risks when the country's fiscal policy is in question. As noted in the agency's statement “in the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues”, the agency puts into question further debt affordability for the US Government.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed his opinion that the SEC has “lost sight of their mission to protect investors” in an interview with CNBC. The SEC and the crypto industry have been on different sides for some time now. While, on one side SEC is insisting to put the crypto industry into the current legal framework related to securities, even through legal disputes, the crypto industry is not ready to comply, requesting a different set of laws. Several legal cases have been won, where dispute with Ripple was the first, and lasted for more than two years. Ripple won as the judge ruled that XRP is not a security. Garlinghouse expressed his hopes that the crypto regulation will stop being ruled by court decisions and that laws governing digital currencies will be adopted by the Congress.
While the spot BTC ETF frenzy is still hot on the market, another one hit it during the previous week. There has been news that BlackRock, the largest asset management fund in the world, is seeking ways to list its first ETH ETF, while still waiting for the SEC`s approval of its first BTC ETF. The news came out that the entity called iShares Ethereum Trust has been registered in Delaware, US. Whether this news is true, BlackRock officials refused to comment, however, ETH was significantly supported with it, reaching 2.1K during the week.
The United Kingdom has scheduled a world conference for crypto tax evasion for the year 2027. The aim of this initiative is to set rules by which tax authorities between countries, signatories of the agreement, will exchange information between each other with the aim to fight offshore crypto tax evasion. Currently 48 countries signed up, however, several largest countries when it comes to the crypto industry, like Turkey, India, China, African countries and Russia are not within signatory to the statement.
Crypto market cap
ETF frenzy is widely shaking the crypto market. During the last few weeks it was all about potential introduction of the first spot BTC ETF, however, starting from the previous week, the frenzy added to it Ethereum`s token ETH. Namely, there has been published news that BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, is seeking the way to list its first spot EFH ETF. The company refused to comment on this news, so for the moment, there is a question whether such news is officially true or not. Still, as markets like to buy the news and later sell the fact, it did not matter too much for investors who were rushing to invest both into BTC and ETH. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 10% during the week, adding 125B to its value. The crypto market cap reached the level of almost $1.4 trillion, the last time seen in April last year. Daily trading volumes were significantly increased during the week, reaching a level of 104B on a daily basis, which might be treated as the crypto market is getting back to its old track. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 84%, where it has added total 637B to the market cap.
It was another positive week for almost all crypto coins on the crypto market. Gains during the week are reminiscent of a period when the crypto market was booming. Almost all coins gained during the week, with BTC and ETH leading the market. In nominal terms BTC was once again the weekly winner of the market, which added 47B to its market cap or almost 7%. ETH managed to beat BTC in relative terms, by increasing its market cap by 13.3%, adding to it almost 30B on a weekly basis. Major altcoins also had significant gains, like Solana, with an incredible weekly increase in value of 43% where it has added a total 7.5B to its market cap. Among significant gainers are also BNB, which gained 2.8B or 8%, LINK added $2.8% or 45%, ADA surged by 2.45B or 21.5%. Both Polkadot and Polygon increased their market cap by 1.4B both, increasing it by around 24%. It should be noted also significant gain made by XRP of 3.4B or 10.6% on a weekly basis. All other altcoins were among weekly gainers.
There has also been significant activity when it comes to coins in circulation. Tether is back in the game, by adding 1.5% coins and increasing its market value for this amount. Polkadot managed to increase its circulating coins by 4.6%, while Algorand`s coins were up by 1.0%. Filecoin has also added new coins into circulation of 0.9% w/w. There have been a lot of other altcoins which increased the number of available coins by at least 0.1%.
Crypto futures market
The frenzy from the BTC and ETH spot market was also reflected in the futures market for these coins. BTC short term futures were last traded higher by more than 7%, while the longer term ones were up by more than 4%. Futures maturing in December 2023 were last traded at price $37.985 or 7.59% higher from the week before, while those maturing in December next year closed the week at price of $39.885. It is interesting to note that BTC futures maturing in March 2025 reached the price of $40.615, which is a significant breakthrough when it comes to the expectations of the BTC price for the future period.
ETH futures were strongly supported by the unconfirmed news that BlackRock will probably file for the ETH ETF in the future period. Short term futures were traded higher by an incredible 14%, while long term ones were up by more than 12% on a weekly basis. ETH futures maturing in December this year finished the week at price $2.135, while those maturing in December next year were last traded at $2.175. It is positive for ETH that its price for the future period managed to finally break the 2K psychological line.
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