Under 1 Trillion: A (hopefully) Brief Story
The first two targets from my previous chart have been hit. But we are not getting a strong reversal reaction from the market at these levels.
What we see now is a 1-day close below the middle trendline, which is now acting as resistance instead of support. These clues lead me to believe there will be continuation resulting in the most bearish scenario of the three which I have presented.
One more measured move downward to the third target, below the 1 trillion mark. Possibly wicked as low as 850ish million.
fwiw: Even if this does play out, I fully believe this will be the last shake-out.
I can't explain exactly why I think this had to happen, but one thing hodling for years through a bear market has taught me is that the best approach to crypto is always to ride the incredibly strong macro waves that it presents, then to get out the moment things start looking toppy. Or even before.
Not many saw this major correction happening and I am not special in any way. I simply refused to hodl this time, during a period of what I thought had become an outrageously overvalued asset class relative to where we were in the year and in this bull run. I did calculations on returns from bottom to top on a lot of coins, and it didn't make sense that some of them were already hundreds of times more valuable since the same time last year. Fundamentally to me btc has to continue bullish by the end of the year, but we were far too overextended. And even - or especially - an unregulated global market will be hit with all sorts of strategic fud at key times in order to keep the insane gains in such a small time period from spiraling out of control.
I would also add that, we have had almost nothing as far as a turn-around bounce goes. If this was a market top that we just witnessed I think (can't say for sure) we would have seen some more volatility to the upside as dead cat bounces with trapped longs struggling to get out. This just feels like a massive, massive shake-out and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of retail investors shy away from this market after losing a lot so quickly, even after we start climbing again toward the next apex of several trillion more.
If I am right and we ARE still in a bull run, this market will recover soon and VERY strongly, with or without my 'final crash' idea. When we get some higher lows, strong reversal candles, more volume... there are lots of technical aspects that could be read as signs that this market is turning around. As it stands we have a little bit of consolidation over the past couple of days, but it's not looking promising yet. That's why I present this idea which, intuitively for whatever strange reason made sense to me from when this market was heading toward 2.5 trillion territory. At worst case, I believe we would have a double-bubble scenario this year, where the second bubble slowly builds, taking months to build prices back up and months more to extend gains beyond all-time highs for a lot of coins. But as of this moment I still believe the first scenario is more likely and we get a strong turn-around and relief rally soon enough.
What we see now is a 1-day close below the middle trendline, which is now acting as resistance instead of support. These clues lead me to believe there will be continuation resulting in the most bearish scenario of the three which I have presented.
One more measured move downward to the third target, below the 1 trillion mark. Possibly wicked as low as 850ish million.
fwiw: Even if this does play out, I fully believe this will be the last shake-out.
I can't explain exactly why I think this had to happen, but one thing hodling for years through a bear market has taught me is that the best approach to crypto is always to ride the incredibly strong macro waves that it presents, then to get out the moment things start looking toppy. Or even before.
Not many saw this major correction happening and I am not special in any way. I simply refused to hodl this time, during a period of what I thought had become an outrageously overvalued asset class relative to where we were in the year and in this bull run. I did calculations on returns from bottom to top on a lot of coins, and it didn't make sense that some of them were already hundreds of times more valuable since the same time last year. Fundamentally to me btc has to continue bullish by the end of the year, but we were far too overextended. And even - or especially - an unregulated global market will be hit with all sorts of strategic fud at key times in order to keep the insane gains in such a small time period from spiraling out of control.
I would also add that, we have had almost nothing as far as a turn-around bounce goes. If this was a market top that we just witnessed I think (can't say for sure) we would have seen some more volatility to the upside as dead cat bounces with trapped longs struggling to get out. This just feels like a massive, massive shake-out and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of retail investors shy away from this market after losing a lot so quickly, even after we start climbing again toward the next apex of several trillion more.
If I am right and we ARE still in a bull run, this market will recover soon and VERY strongly, with or without my 'final crash' idea. When we get some higher lows, strong reversal candles, more volume... there are lots of technical aspects that could be read as signs that this market is turning around. As it stands we have a little bit of consolidation over the past couple of days, but it's not looking promising yet. That's why I present this idea which, intuitively for whatever strange reason made sense to me from when this market was heading toward 2.5 trillion territory. At worst case, I believe we would have a double-bubble scenario this year, where the second bubble slowly builds, taking months to build prices back up and months more to extend gains beyond all-time highs for a lot of coins. But as of this moment I still believe the first scenario is more likely and we get a strong turn-around and relief rally soon enough.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.