MARKETS week ahead: February 12 – 18
Last week in the news
The S&P 500 continued with gains for the fifth straight week in a row, surpassing the 5.000 level. Investors continue to be optimistic regarding the performance of the US economy and expectations on the forthcoming rate cuts. This week, Bitcoin was also in a positive territory, increasing its value by 10%, and reaching shortly the $ 48K level. Treasury yields remained relatively stable during the week. Gold shortly reached $2.050, however, ended the week lower following strengthening of the US Dollar.
Previous week was relatively calm when fundamentals are in question, but with ongoing positive sentiment which impacts developments on financial markets. The released figure for the US inflation in December, as published by the Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics, reached 0.2%, lower from previously reported 0.3%. This represents another sign that inflation is clearly on the path of its return toward the 2% target in the coming period, however, Treasury yields did not react much to this news. The 10Y Treasury benchmark continued to move above the 4%. The analysts are noting market concerns that there might be fewer rate cuts during the course of this year, as the Fed is taking the precautionary stance of not cutting too soon. On the other side, within the week ahead, the US January inflation data will be published, on which the market is more focused on.
As per news reports, CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, is getting ready to address the problem of supply and demand of chips for AI. The Wall Street Journal published the information that Sam Altman would need between $5 and $7 trillion for such a project, but the information has not been officially confirmed by the OpenAI. Instead, there is only a call from Sam Altman on the social network X (ex Twitter) for more infrastructure around the AI. He noted that “building massive-scale AI infrastructure, and a resilient supply chain, is crucial to economic competitiveness”.
BTC ETF`s are still gaining market attention. Although the inflows into these funds slowed down a bit in the last two weeks, the situation changed after BTC managed to break the 43K level. As per news reports, the third largest daily net inflow of funds, of around $400 million, occurred on Thursday, which increased a holding of BTC`s by exchange traded funds to 9.260 BTC. Analysts who are closely following developments on the crypto market noted that ETFs are now holding 192.255 Bitcoins, which is around 2.000 higher from holdings of MicroStrategy. Considering high stakes of few participants on the market, there is currently a discussion if there might be a high concentration of BTC`s within several entities, which might lead to potential full control over the BTC market. Markus Levin, a head of operations at California tech start-up XY Labs, commented on this topic to CoinDesk, noting that the bitcoin network is still a distributed network and that “ the concentration of coins held by these entities is not a risk to the Bitcoin Network”.
Crypto market cap
The market optimism since the beginning of this year continues to hold on financial markets. For several weeks investors were more oriented toward the equity markets, while the prior week brought breakthroughs on the crypto market. Bitcoin finally broke the 43K level, which was a reflection of around $400 million of new funds inflow from several exchange traded funds on this market. It seems that investors are highly optimistic regarding the state of the US economy and are currently positioning for the expected Fed's rate cuts during the course of this year, seeking for more riskier assets in expectation of higher returns. As for current state of the US economy, figures are showing further relaxation in inflation and relatively stable economic output, however, the exact timing of the rate cuts, as well as, the number of it during this year, remains still unknown considering statements of some Fed officials, that Fed is concerned regarding cutting rates too soon. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 8% during the previous week, adding 133B on a weekly basis. The majority of these funds was added through the demand for Bitcoin. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased from the week before, moving around 110B, which is a jump from $ 69B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization turned into the positive territory from the end of the previous year, currently adding $ 95B or 6% increase since the beginning of this year.
During the previous week almost all coins gained in value, except a few who finished the week in the red. Bitcoin was the coin with highest demand, which increased its market cap by 9.5% or 80B on a weekly basis. BTC was followed by ETH, who managed to add 21B to its value or 7.6% during the week. Among significant gainers in nominal terms was Binance Coin, with a jump in value of almost $ 3B or 6.5%, while Solana managed again to be in the spotlight of investors, with an increase in value of 4.5B or 10.5%. In relative terms, some of the gainers above 5% in value were Bitcoin Gold, NEO and Tron, while Polygon and Uniswap gained above 7% each. Only a few coins finished the week in red, among which the biggest loser was Monero. Drop in value of almost 30% came after news that the Binance exchanger will delist this coin from its exchange, since the coin “no longer meets this standard”, as announced by the Binance.
There has been some relaxed activity with coins in circulation compared to the week before. The highest change in coins on the market had Miota, who added 0.6% more coins compared to the week before, and Filecoin added 0.5% of coins. Solana and Polkadot had an increase of 0.2% of circulating coins, while Tether had a drop of 3.1% for the first time after a long period of the increasing trend.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reflected increased investors optimism from the spot market. The crypto futures for both BTC and ETH ended the week higher from the week before for all maturities. For the first time in many months BTC long term futures crossed the 50K level, exposing the investors’ confidence about the future price of this coin.
BTC short term futures ended the Friday`s trading session more than 10% higher from the week before in line with the spot market developments. Still, the major move was within longer term futures, where futures maturing in June 2025 crossed the 50K level, ending the week at price $50.530. At the same time, futures maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $52.345. These developments send a positive signal regarding the expectations on the future price developments of BTC.
ETH futures were also traded higher from the end of the previous week. Short term futures were traded higher by some 8% on average, while long term ones ended the week higher by more than 5%. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at price $2.556, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $2.701.
The S&P 500 continued with gains for the fifth straight week in a row, surpassing the 5.000 level. Investors continue to be optimistic regarding the performance of the US economy and expectations on the forthcoming rate cuts. This week, Bitcoin was also in a positive territory, increasing its value by 10%, and reaching shortly the $ 48K level. Treasury yields remained relatively stable during the week. Gold shortly reached $2.050, however, ended the week lower following strengthening of the US Dollar.
Previous week was relatively calm when fundamentals are in question, but with ongoing positive sentiment which impacts developments on financial markets. The released figure for the US inflation in December, as published by the Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics, reached 0.2%, lower from previously reported 0.3%. This represents another sign that inflation is clearly on the path of its return toward the 2% target in the coming period, however, Treasury yields did not react much to this news. The 10Y Treasury benchmark continued to move above the 4%. The analysts are noting market concerns that there might be fewer rate cuts during the course of this year, as the Fed is taking the precautionary stance of not cutting too soon. On the other side, within the week ahead, the US January inflation data will be published, on which the market is more focused on.
As per news reports, CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, is getting ready to address the problem of supply and demand of chips for AI. The Wall Street Journal published the information that Sam Altman would need between $5 and $7 trillion for such a project, but the information has not been officially confirmed by the OpenAI. Instead, there is only a call from Sam Altman on the social network X (ex Twitter) for more infrastructure around the AI. He noted that “building massive-scale AI infrastructure, and a resilient supply chain, is crucial to economic competitiveness”.
BTC ETF`s are still gaining market attention. Although the inflows into these funds slowed down a bit in the last two weeks, the situation changed after BTC managed to break the 43K level. As per news reports, the third largest daily net inflow of funds, of around $400 million, occurred on Thursday, which increased a holding of BTC`s by exchange traded funds to 9.260 BTC. Analysts who are closely following developments on the crypto market noted that ETFs are now holding 192.255 Bitcoins, which is around 2.000 higher from holdings of MicroStrategy. Considering high stakes of few participants on the market, there is currently a discussion if there might be a high concentration of BTC`s within several entities, which might lead to potential full control over the BTC market. Markus Levin, a head of operations at California tech start-up XY Labs, commented on this topic to CoinDesk, noting that the bitcoin network is still a distributed network and that “ the concentration of coins held by these entities is not a risk to the Bitcoin Network”.
Crypto market cap
The market optimism since the beginning of this year continues to hold on financial markets. For several weeks investors were more oriented toward the equity markets, while the prior week brought breakthroughs on the crypto market. Bitcoin finally broke the 43K level, which was a reflection of around $400 million of new funds inflow from several exchange traded funds on this market. It seems that investors are highly optimistic regarding the state of the US economy and are currently positioning for the expected Fed's rate cuts during the course of this year, seeking for more riskier assets in expectation of higher returns. As for current state of the US economy, figures are showing further relaxation in inflation and relatively stable economic output, however, the exact timing of the rate cuts, as well as, the number of it during this year, remains still unknown considering statements of some Fed officials, that Fed is concerned regarding cutting rates too soon. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 8% during the previous week, adding 133B on a weekly basis. The majority of these funds was added through the demand for Bitcoin. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased from the week before, moving around 110B, which is a jump from $ 69B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization turned into the positive territory from the end of the previous year, currently adding $ 95B or 6% increase since the beginning of this year.
During the previous week almost all coins gained in value, except a few who finished the week in the red. Bitcoin was the coin with highest demand, which increased its market cap by 9.5% or 80B on a weekly basis. BTC was followed by ETH, who managed to add 21B to its value or 7.6% during the week. Among significant gainers in nominal terms was Binance Coin, with a jump in value of almost $ 3B or 6.5%, while Solana managed again to be in the spotlight of investors, with an increase in value of 4.5B or 10.5%. In relative terms, some of the gainers above 5% in value were Bitcoin Gold, NEO and Tron, while Polygon and Uniswap gained above 7% each. Only a few coins finished the week in red, among which the biggest loser was Monero. Drop in value of almost 30% came after news that the Binance exchanger will delist this coin from its exchange, since the coin “no longer meets this standard”, as announced by the Binance.
There has been some relaxed activity with coins in circulation compared to the week before. The highest change in coins on the market had Miota, who added 0.6% more coins compared to the week before, and Filecoin added 0.5% of coins. Solana and Polkadot had an increase of 0.2% of circulating coins, while Tether had a drop of 3.1% for the first time after a long period of the increasing trend.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reflected increased investors optimism from the spot market. The crypto futures for both BTC and ETH ended the week higher from the week before for all maturities. For the first time in many months BTC long term futures crossed the 50K level, exposing the investors’ confidence about the future price of this coin.
BTC short term futures ended the Friday`s trading session more than 10% higher from the week before in line with the spot market developments. Still, the major move was within longer term futures, where futures maturing in June 2025 crossed the 50K level, ending the week at price $50.530. At the same time, futures maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $52.345. These developments send a positive signal regarding the expectations on the future price developments of BTC.
ETH futures were also traded higher from the end of the previous week. Short term futures were traded higher by some 8% on average, while long term ones ended the week higher by more than 5%. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at price $2.556, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $2.701.
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