MARKETS week ahead: February 5 – 11
Last week in the news
Fed kept interest rates unchanged during the previous week, with Powell`s note that they have “probably '' peaked, showing Fed`s final alignment with the market. Their decision had a modest impact on financial markets during the previous week, considering that it has been widely expected. The US equity indices continued to move around ATH`s, while US Treasuries eased on Fed's decision but reacted on latest jobs data. Gold has its move toward $2.050 resistance, but returned after the USD gained in value. BTC continued to struggle to break the 43K, but still, without success for the last three weeks.
The FOMC meeting was in the spotlight of the market during the previous week. As it was widely expected, Fed left rates unchanged, noting that they have “probably” peaked at this level. But, Fed Chair Powell, kept a dose of reserve regarding the forthcoming potential rate cuts. He noted that the Fed members are expecting to see that the inflation is on a clear down road toward the targeted 2%, and until they are certain in data, they will not move interest rates from current levels. At the same time, the US economy continues to show resilience to high interest rates. Published data for non-farm payrolls for January outperformed market expectations of 180K, reaching 353K. Unemployment rate was left at 3.7%, although the market was expecting to see a modest increase to 3.8%.
The “battle” between BTC ETF funds continues for the third week in a row. BlackRock`s IBIT and ProShares BITO have surpassed Grayscale`s GBTC trading volumes. Current daily trading volumes range around $300 million, however, as news is reporting, volumes are slowly decreasing. The latest selling pressure on the crypto market came as a result of FTX`s sales, where it was sold over $1 billion worth of the GBTC. On the opposite side are some industry professionals who are proponents of holding real BTC, instead of buying one through ETF`s, putting in a first plan “financial ownership and sovereignty”, which was the real purpose behind the BTC.
The largest Chinese real estate company, Evergrande, has been liquidated by the court order in Hong Kong during the previous week. Two years ago, the same company defaulted on its debt in the US, and filed for bankruptcy in the United States. It is still unclear how it will affect other businesses around Evergrande, but what is currently reported by the news is that a court-appointed liquidator will start selling Evergrande`s assets in order to pay its debtors.
Crypto market cap
During the previous week the FOMC meeting was in the spotlight. Markets were looking to hear the stance of Fed officials on the current economic outlook in the US. Although the Fed was aligned with the market and kept interest rates unchanged, still, what is almost sure is that rate cuts will not be on the table for Fed at least until May this year, as per current market anticipation. The crucial point for the Fed is to find a right moment between increasing interest rates too high and cutting them too early. Both scenarios could have negative implications on the US economy, which the Fed is trying to avoid. Based on the latest output of the US economy, it seems that Fed`s measures gave results without hurting the economy, however, the main issue for the Fed is whether the inflation will clearly return to 2% target, or it will be postponed. While equity markets are reacting quite positively to such economic developments, the crypto market is slowly entering into a calmer phase. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by modest 2% or $ 32B during the previous week, out of which almost 89% is participation of funds flow into the BTC. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease to the level of around $ 69B on a daily basis, from 85B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization decrease since the beginning of this year stands at 2%, with a total 38B lost in value of the market.
The crypto market performed in a mixed manner during the previous week. The highest inflow of funds had BTC, which increased its cap by almost 3%, adding 24B to its market value. Ether also ended the week in a positive territory, with an increase in market cap by 1.7% or 4.6B. Solana had a good performance with a surge in value of almost 6.5%, adding 2.5B to its value. From other major altcoins LINK should be especially mentioned as its market cap surged by 28.7% on a weekly basis, adding total 2.3B to its cap. Cardano had a good week, with an increase in value of 7.3%, while Monero was up by 5.1% within a week. Several coins ended the week in red, like Bitcoin Gold, with a drop in value of 2.5%, OMG Network dropped by 4.3%, while Stellar was down by almost 4% on a weekly basis.
Coins in circulation have been more active than usual during the previous week. Litecoin increased its coins on the market by 4.3% within a single week while LINK had an increase of 2.8%. Solana`s coins in circulation were up by 0.7%, Filecoin had an increase by 0.8%, while Polkadot, and Tether`s circulating coins surged by 0.2% on a weekly basis. Several other coins had an increase of 0.1%.
Crypto futures market
Optimism on the futures market was higher than the one currently holding the spot market. Short term futures for both BTC and ETH were holding in line with the spot market, and were increased by 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. The major weekly development was with long term futures.
BTC long term futures were traded higher modestly below 8% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $46.090, while those maturing a year later were last traded at price $49.520. The market continues to hold a positive perception for the future price of BTC.
ETH long term futures were traded around 3.5% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $2.423, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at price $2.560. Both BTC and ETH long term futures are slowly returning toward the levels from the beginning of this year, which were above 50K for BTC and 2.8K for ETH.
Fed kept interest rates unchanged during the previous week, with Powell`s note that they have “probably '' peaked, showing Fed`s final alignment with the market. Their decision had a modest impact on financial markets during the previous week, considering that it has been widely expected. The US equity indices continued to move around ATH`s, while US Treasuries eased on Fed's decision but reacted on latest jobs data. Gold has its move toward $2.050 resistance, but returned after the USD gained in value. BTC continued to struggle to break the 43K, but still, without success for the last three weeks.
The FOMC meeting was in the spotlight of the market during the previous week. As it was widely expected, Fed left rates unchanged, noting that they have “probably” peaked at this level. But, Fed Chair Powell, kept a dose of reserve regarding the forthcoming potential rate cuts. He noted that the Fed members are expecting to see that the inflation is on a clear down road toward the targeted 2%, and until they are certain in data, they will not move interest rates from current levels. At the same time, the US economy continues to show resilience to high interest rates. Published data for non-farm payrolls for January outperformed market expectations of 180K, reaching 353K. Unemployment rate was left at 3.7%, although the market was expecting to see a modest increase to 3.8%.
The “battle” between BTC ETF funds continues for the third week in a row. BlackRock`s IBIT and ProShares BITO have surpassed Grayscale`s GBTC trading volumes. Current daily trading volumes range around $300 million, however, as news is reporting, volumes are slowly decreasing. The latest selling pressure on the crypto market came as a result of FTX`s sales, where it was sold over $1 billion worth of the GBTC. On the opposite side are some industry professionals who are proponents of holding real BTC, instead of buying one through ETF`s, putting in a first plan “financial ownership and sovereignty”, which was the real purpose behind the BTC.
The largest Chinese real estate company, Evergrande, has been liquidated by the court order in Hong Kong during the previous week. Two years ago, the same company defaulted on its debt in the US, and filed for bankruptcy in the United States. It is still unclear how it will affect other businesses around Evergrande, but what is currently reported by the news is that a court-appointed liquidator will start selling Evergrande`s assets in order to pay its debtors.
Crypto market cap
During the previous week the FOMC meeting was in the spotlight. Markets were looking to hear the stance of Fed officials on the current economic outlook in the US. Although the Fed was aligned with the market and kept interest rates unchanged, still, what is almost sure is that rate cuts will not be on the table for Fed at least until May this year, as per current market anticipation. The crucial point for the Fed is to find a right moment between increasing interest rates too high and cutting them too early. Both scenarios could have negative implications on the US economy, which the Fed is trying to avoid. Based on the latest output of the US economy, it seems that Fed`s measures gave results without hurting the economy, however, the main issue for the Fed is whether the inflation will clearly return to 2% target, or it will be postponed. While equity markets are reacting quite positively to such economic developments, the crypto market is slowly entering into a calmer phase. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by modest 2% or $ 32B during the previous week, out of which almost 89% is participation of funds flow into the BTC. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease to the level of around $ 69B on a daily basis, from 85B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization decrease since the beginning of this year stands at 2%, with a total 38B lost in value of the market.
The crypto market performed in a mixed manner during the previous week. The highest inflow of funds had BTC, which increased its cap by almost 3%, adding 24B to its market value. Ether also ended the week in a positive territory, with an increase in market cap by 1.7% or 4.6B. Solana had a good performance with a surge in value of almost 6.5%, adding 2.5B to its value. From other major altcoins LINK should be especially mentioned as its market cap surged by 28.7% on a weekly basis, adding total 2.3B to its cap. Cardano had a good week, with an increase in value of 7.3%, while Monero was up by 5.1% within a week. Several coins ended the week in red, like Bitcoin Gold, with a drop in value of 2.5%, OMG Network dropped by 4.3%, while Stellar was down by almost 4% on a weekly basis.
Coins in circulation have been more active than usual during the previous week. Litecoin increased its coins on the market by 4.3% within a single week while LINK had an increase of 2.8%. Solana`s coins in circulation were up by 0.7%, Filecoin had an increase by 0.8%, while Polkadot, and Tether`s circulating coins surged by 0.2% on a weekly basis. Several other coins had an increase of 0.1%.
Crypto futures market
Optimism on the futures market was higher than the one currently holding the spot market. Short term futures for both BTC and ETH were holding in line with the spot market, and were increased by 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. The major weekly development was with long term futures.
BTC long term futures were traded higher modestly below 8% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $46.090, while those maturing a year later were last traded at price $49.520. The market continues to hold a positive perception for the future price of BTC.
ETH long term futures were traded around 3.5% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $2.423, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at price $2.560. Both BTC and ETH long term futures are slowly returning toward the levels from the beginning of this year, which were above 50K for BTC and 2.8K for ETH.
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