In this analysis I want to make a prediction on where the next bull-market will top, and around which date we can expect it to top. Keep in mind that I only use the last two cycles in this analysis, so take this analysis with a grain of salt.
To make the prediction, I use the total marketcap of crypto (TOTAL), which is the value of all Bitcoin and altcoins combined.
As seen on the chart, it appears that the crypto market is following a multi-year rising wedge pattern with a clear support and resistance line. My assumption is that this support and resistance line will guide us during the next cycle.
In the previous two bull-markets, the market topped 77 or 78 weeks after the halving. With the halving being the 16th of April 2024, we can easily extrapolate the date for the next market top: between 13 October (77 weeks) and 27 October (78 weeks) of 2025.
Now that we have the date, we can combine it with the top resistance of the rising wedge pattern. My best guess is that the market will top at this same resistance like before, which will be around the 12 trillion dollar mark. This would indicate that the market will roughly do a 11x from this point onwards towards the top in October 2025.
With a Bitcoin & ETH dominance of exactly the same value as now, it would mean that BTC will top at ~330,000 and ETH at ~20,900. My assumption will be that the dominances of the two biggest cryptos will be much smaller in the future then they are now.
Do you think this analysis is valid? Where and when do you think that BTC will top? Share your thoughts below 🙏