Bitcoin still on track with previous bear market
This chart shows the crypto total market cap with weekly candles, 20MA, and RSI. Looking at this comparison between the end of the 2015 bear market and the current year's bear market, we can see some undeniable similarities.
In 2015, the charts continually showed lower highs and lower lows (shown in red), but eventually hit the lowest low (dark red). However, we then started to see what seemed to be a higher low (shown in yellow), and a break of the 20MA for the first time in over a year (1st pink circle). This bull run broke above the previous high, setting higher highs for the first time since the previous bull market (green arrow). This then proved to be a bull trap, as the market cap fell below the 20MA again (2nd pink circle), and plummeted towards the lowest low. However, this low stopped just short of the lowest low (green line) and recovered quickly, breaking above the 20MA again (3rd pink circle). This indicated the start of a new bull market, and 20x increase in total market cap.
Comparing this to the recent trends, we can see similar behavior up until the break above the weekly 20MA and huge bull push that has everyone thinking the bear market has come to an end. However, this recent behavior would put us at the first higher high (green arrow), meaning a big drop is on the way. I took the candles from 2015's first lower low and overlayed them in blue so you can get an idea of how things might turn out. Be can also take a look at RSI and see what behavior marked the start of the previous bull market. We can see that there is a zone of resistance that was broken (marked by long blue rectangle), and that it then acted as a support during the entirety of the bull market. As you can see, we still haven't broken this zone of resistance, and our current trend looks a lot like when it was tested in the 2015 bear market. If history repeats, we will fail this test, fall back, and break through this zone on the next test, which I'm guessing will be roughly somewhere between August and November of 2019. After this, we should see the start of a new bull market and be on our way to the moon. Either way, stay on the look for another break below the 20MA and keep your stop losses tight.
Good luck,
magoog11
In 2015, the charts continually showed lower highs and lower lows (shown in red), but eventually hit the lowest low (dark red). However, we then started to see what seemed to be a higher low (shown in yellow), and a break of the 20MA for the first time in over a year (1st pink circle). This bull run broke above the previous high, setting higher highs for the first time since the previous bull market (green arrow). This then proved to be a bull trap, as the market cap fell below the 20MA again (2nd pink circle), and plummeted towards the lowest low. However, this low stopped just short of the lowest low (green line) and recovered quickly, breaking above the 20MA again (3rd pink circle). This indicated the start of a new bull market, and 20x increase in total market cap.
Comparing this to the recent trends, we can see similar behavior up until the break above the weekly 20MA and huge bull push that has everyone thinking the bear market has come to an end. However, this recent behavior would put us at the first higher high (green arrow), meaning a big drop is on the way. I took the candles from 2015's first lower low and overlayed them in blue so you can get an idea of how things might turn out. Be can also take a look at RSI and see what behavior marked the start of the previous bull market. We can see that there is a zone of resistance that was broken (marked by long blue rectangle), and that it then acted as a support during the entirety of the bull market. As you can see, we still haven't broken this zone of resistance, and our current trend looks a lot like when it was tested in the 2015 bear market. If history repeats, we will fail this test, fall back, and break through this zone on the next test, which I'm guessing will be roughly somewhere between August and November of 2019. After this, we should see the start of a new bull market and be on our way to the moon. Either way, stay on the look for another break below the 20MA and keep your stop losses tight.
Good luck,
magoog11
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