Like If You Want To Buy A Generational Crypto Bottom!
Updated
Dear Friends.
It is absolutely time to prepare for long positioning in the crypto market. As you can see on my chart, we are currently in the last and 5th wave down towards the golden 6.18 FIB level. Yes, I have used my own custom crypto FIBS that represent the volatility of the crypto market and as you can see these levels correspond very well with market tops or bottoms. Next to that we can see that June lows correspond exactly with the target out of the head and shoulders (although not a beautiful H&S but it still is one) and now we are on the way to hit the target out of the bearish pennant which sits exactly at the 6.18. Yet I already bagged a bit up because you never know who will frontrun you.
Indicated with red circles all the times when I sold my crypto portfolio and in green all the times I added spot long positions to my crypto portfolio. I sold the top twice, Bitcoin on April 14th (during the COIN - Coinbase listing) and rotated into alts (mostly ETH) and sold at the start of May 2021. Then I jumped back in during the end of July (alts only) and rode them up till I sold again during the 3rd week of November. All these analyses you can find back on my account - the sell in Nov 2021 came a bit later as I was suspended from posting at that time - which is also mentioned at that given analysis at the start of Dec 2021. (check the linked analyses below)
This year I have been sitting in cash (USD) and had a nice little bull market there as well - I believe the dollar has topped and took profits on my long dollar positioning:
- Bought the June lows (a few alts that have not reached that bottom level again)
- Bought the recent dip after FTX collapsed
- Now I have about 13% USD left in my portfolio that I will deploy at the 6.18 level
My portfolio is net positive by about 30%, some positions under water, some have 2x to the upside or more. I do not care one bit about positions being under water at this moment because now is not the time to look for gains, it is the time to DCA into the market at strategic levels - thus far, this went very well. As you can see I dropped an alarm just above the 6.18 as I believe this is a crucial demand zone. Sure, we can drop lower but I would compare such strategy as saying Bitcoin could go higher at 69K - nothing is for sure in the market but what is: if you buy at a strategic level and sell at a strategic level, you usually do better than to sit and wait for a 100K Bitcoin or for a sub 10K Bitcoin. Remember, this is a long term portfolio, current swings in the market don't bother me one bit - in fact, bring more FUD and shorts, as the short squeeze will be fun to witness!
My macro outlook is that US CPI will come down further next month, especially with the German PPI hitting a record low with -4.2%. Sure, we have insolvencies / bankruptcies with FTX and potentially Genesis and Grayscale with tail risk from Silvergate. I honestly couldn't care less as the alt coins I'm invested in are unfazed by the panic - or if so, I pick them up at a heavy discount. Current tail risk is in the oil market and what the Russian oil cap means for the oil price, lets hope the West will figure something out with Middle Eastern producers to offset the lack of Russian oil - or else this could impose a big risk of higher oil prices and thus inflation picking up again. Politics is not my expertise, so I can't say what will happen there - lets wait and see.
This brings me to my last point: do your fundamental analysis! Do not expect monkey jpegs or dog coins to be the winners of the next cycle. The next cycle is ALL about institutional adoption and believe me, they won't buy your dog coins. I have put together a portfolio based on years of research and I believe I'm well positioned for the supercycle that brings us to the 3rd adoption phase of crypto (excluding BTC): the early majority. I would compare the upcoming cycle with what happened to the Nasdaq after it bottomed out from the dot com bubble. It's very similar: what difference is pets(dot)com to Doge or Shiba Inu? Not much. For reference, open up the chart and check what the Nasdaq did post 2002: +2000% from bottom to top and thats just the index. Imagine having bought Apple or Amazon at that time. Thats exactly why I have been researching heavily for long term holds.
But remember, if you hold the wrong projects, nothing is going to happen for you - so if you are interested to check my portfolio, please refer to the links below.
Good luck to everyone!
It is absolutely time to prepare for long positioning in the crypto market. As you can see on my chart, we are currently in the last and 5th wave down towards the golden 6.18 FIB level. Yes, I have used my own custom crypto FIBS that represent the volatility of the crypto market and as you can see these levels correspond very well with market tops or bottoms. Next to that we can see that June lows correspond exactly with the target out of the head and shoulders (although not a beautiful H&S but it still is one) and now we are on the way to hit the target out of the bearish pennant which sits exactly at the 6.18. Yet I already bagged a bit up because you never know who will frontrun you.
Indicated with red circles all the times when I sold my crypto portfolio and in green all the times I added spot long positions to my crypto portfolio. I sold the top twice, Bitcoin on April 14th (during the COIN - Coinbase listing) and rotated into alts (mostly ETH) and sold at the start of May 2021. Then I jumped back in during the end of July (alts only) and rode them up till I sold again during the 3rd week of November. All these analyses you can find back on my account - the sell in Nov 2021 came a bit later as I was suspended from posting at that time - which is also mentioned at that given analysis at the start of Dec 2021. (check the linked analyses below)
This year I have been sitting in cash (USD) and had a nice little bull market there as well - I believe the dollar has topped and took profits on my long dollar positioning:
- Bought the June lows (a few alts that have not reached that bottom level again)
- Bought the recent dip after FTX collapsed
- Now I have about 13% USD left in my portfolio that I will deploy at the 6.18 level
My portfolio is net positive by about 30%, some positions under water, some have 2x to the upside or more. I do not care one bit about positions being under water at this moment because now is not the time to look for gains, it is the time to DCA into the market at strategic levels - thus far, this went very well. As you can see I dropped an alarm just above the 6.18 as I believe this is a crucial demand zone. Sure, we can drop lower but I would compare such strategy as saying Bitcoin could go higher at 69K - nothing is for sure in the market but what is: if you buy at a strategic level and sell at a strategic level, you usually do better than to sit and wait for a 100K Bitcoin or for a sub 10K Bitcoin. Remember, this is a long term portfolio, current swings in the market don't bother me one bit - in fact, bring more FUD and shorts, as the short squeeze will be fun to witness!
My macro outlook is that US CPI will come down further next month, especially with the German PPI hitting a record low with -4.2%. Sure, we have insolvencies / bankruptcies with FTX and potentially Genesis and Grayscale with tail risk from Silvergate. I honestly couldn't care less as the alt coins I'm invested in are unfazed by the panic - or if so, I pick them up at a heavy discount. Current tail risk is in the oil market and what the Russian oil cap means for the oil price, lets hope the West will figure something out with Middle Eastern producers to offset the lack of Russian oil - or else this could impose a big risk of higher oil prices and thus inflation picking up again. Politics is not my expertise, so I can't say what will happen there - lets wait and see.
This brings me to my last point: do your fundamental analysis! Do not expect monkey jpegs or dog coins to be the winners of the next cycle. The next cycle is ALL about institutional adoption and believe me, they won't buy your dog coins. I have put together a portfolio based on years of research and I believe I'm well positioned for the supercycle that brings us to the 3rd adoption phase of crypto (excluding BTC): the early majority. I would compare the upcoming cycle with what happened to the Nasdaq after it bottomed out from the dot com bubble. It's very similar: what difference is pets(dot)com to Doge or Shiba Inu? Not much. For reference, open up the chart and check what the Nasdaq did post 2002: +2000% from bottom to top and thats just the index. Imagine having bought Apple or Amazon at that time. Thats exactly why I have been researching heavily for long term holds.
But remember, if you hold the wrong projects, nothing is going to happen for you - so if you are interested to check my portfolio, please refer to the links below.
Good luck to everyone!
Note
Only 8 people who want to buy a bottom, the rest wants to fomo in at higher prices. OK - good luck with that.Note
Good morning, friends, here I am again...
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