MARKETS week ahead: May 18 – 24

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Last week in the news

The US inflation and inflation expectations were in the spotlight of market interest during the previous week. The weekly surprise came from the US-based credit rating agency Moody’s, which downgraded the US sovereign by one notch. As the news came late Friday, the market reaction was reflected in an after-hours trading, where the 10Y Treasury benchmark reached again the level of 4,48%. As tariffs tensions are settling down, the positive market sentiment continues to hold on US equity markets. The S&P 500 had five positive trading days, adding more than 5% to its value during the week, and closing it at 5.958. Due to the same reason, the price of gold eased, ending the week at the level of $3.201. The crypto market was side traded during the week, where BTC was moving between levels of $103K and $105K.

The US inflation figures were posted during the previous week, which was in line with market expectations. The US inflation in April was standing at 0,2% for the month, and 2,3% on a yearly basis. At the same time core inflation continues to be modestly elevated on a yearly basis, with the level of 2,8% in April, however, it reached 0,2% on a monthly basis. The surprise came from the University of Michigan inflation expectation survey, which was elevated compared to the previous posted figures. The preliminary data showed an increased 5 years inflation expectations of 7,3%, from 6,5% posted previously. Expectations for a yearly inflation were also higher, at the level of 4,6% from 4.4% posted previously. Analysts are noting that such sentiment of US consumers is coming from tensions over trade tariffs between the US and China.

The significant news from rating agencies came during the weekend, noting that the US based rating agency Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1. The rating cut came as a result of concerns over sustainability of the US budget deficit and higher rising costs of debt in the environment of higher interest rates. The market reaction was negative, but was reflected in an after-hours trading. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark surged to the level of 4,48%, while 30Y Treasury yields climbed to the level of 4,96%.

The US President's visit to Gulf countries was under close watch of news and markets during the previous week. The most important outcome of these visits are significant trade and investment agreements which the US and Gulf countries signed during the visit. Some deals include a $1,2 trillion commitment by Saudi Arabia of the “economic exchange”, a $1,4 trillion investment over the next 10 years of UAE in the US. Projects were mostly related to investment in the AI and tech companies but also purchases of Boeing planes and military equipment, as per news reports.

Another news covered the US President's visit to the United Arab Emirates, where it is noted that Nvidia, Cisco and Oracle will support the project called “UAE Stargate”, which is an artificial intelligence data centre based in Abu Dhabi.



CRYPTO MARKET

After a significant rally two weeks ago, the crypto market slowed down a bit during the previous week. It was traded in a mixed mode, however, the majority of coins had a weekly correction in the price. BTC managed to sustain the weekly levels above the $103K, holding the total crypto market capitalization relatively flat. The total crypto market cap remained relatively flat on a weekly basis, losing less than $ 1B in value. Daily trading volumes eased during the week, trading around $148B on a daily basis, which was a significant drop from $309B traded the week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at 1%, with $25B inflow of funds.

BTC had a relative volatility during the previous week, but it managed to end it relatively flat, adding $12B to its total market cap, or 0,6% w/w. ETH also managed to sustain previously gained levels, also ending the week flat, adding a modest 0,6% to its cap. Another coin which was traded with a positive sentiment for the second week in a row was Monero, which managed to add additional 6,7% to its total capitalization. Tron is also in this group with a weekly gain of 4,2%. On the opposite side were coins whose price went through a weekly correction. XRP had a drop in value of 1%, losing $1,45B in market value. BNB dropped by 1,2% while ADA had a major correction of 7%. Uniswap was last traded won by 14,6%, Filecoin and Algorand also experienced a drop in value of more than 7% each.

When it comes to circulating coins, the highest weekly increase had IOTA of 0,5%. IOTA was followed by Filecoin, with an weekly increase in circulating coins of 0,4%. This week Maker had a withdrawal of the circulating coins by -0,2%. It is interesting to note that stablecoin Tether issued the new 0,9% new coins on the market.



Crypto futures market

During the previous week there has been a significant increase in the value of ETH futures. Although this coin managed to add 0,6% to its market cap, still futures showed that this coin should be more than 11% higher from its current market value. This includes both short term and long term futures. Futures maturing as of the end of May were last traded at levels above $2,6K. At the same time, futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $2.720, and those maturing a year later closed the week at $2.926. This means a positive market sentiment, increasing the possibility for ETH long term futures to reach levels above the $3K in the near future.

BTC futures remained relatively flat as of the end of the week, moving in line with the market sentiment from the spot market. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year reached the last trading price at $108.455, and those maturing in December 2026 closed the week at $114.930.

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