It's Make Or Break Time For Altcoins
Updated
This is a warning - things could get very bad if we have a sustained break below this long term trendline. This is to illustrate a couple of worst case scenarios. Below 66-67B, there's not much support until 40B, and then from there we could hit new lows at 27B and even close to 10B by November this year. This is IF the trendline is broken to the downside. Yes, that means that the altcoin market could lose as much as 86% more value. I know this sounds ridiculous, but you can see on this chart that our next long term uptrend isn't until around that point.
HOWEVER, if the market is reversing healthily, I'd like to see some strong buying going on ASAP, as I've been mentioning over and over again recently. Just wanted to post this chart, to show the altcoin market as a whole, and how it's necessary to see some demand at these current levels. So far, volume is really pathetic, and stoch RSI is lingering at the top, which isn't a good sign.
The pink scenario is the only bullish version I see happening. Look at this chart zoomed in. We just bounced off the long term trendline the other day:
This means a few things:
1) Bitcoin needs to maintain current price levels or move up, since most alts are still valued against Bitcoin
2) If Bitcoin drops, alts will need to rise on their ratios to maintain these USD levels
3) If the crypto market is to remain long term bullish, it needs to continue slowly reversing here.
I'm also not totally ruling out a capitulation event that sends us briefly below the trendline, but we'd need to get back above it. It's currently in the 66.5B area.
This is not financial advice. This is just to show you how dangerous I think the market is looking right now. I'll be able to breathe again if we see some buying here. Buying could indeed be rewarded here, if you have the balls.
-Victor Cobra
HOWEVER, if the market is reversing healthily, I'd like to see some strong buying going on ASAP, as I've been mentioning over and over again recently. Just wanted to post this chart, to show the altcoin market as a whole, and how it's necessary to see some demand at these current levels. So far, volume is really pathetic, and stoch RSI is lingering at the top, which isn't a good sign.
The pink scenario is the only bullish version I see happening. Look at this chart zoomed in. We just bounced off the long term trendline the other day:
This means a few things:
1) Bitcoin needs to maintain current price levels or move up, since most alts are still valued against Bitcoin
2) If Bitcoin drops, alts will need to rise on their ratios to maintain these USD levels
3) If the crypto market is to remain long term bullish, it needs to continue slowly reversing here.
I'm also not totally ruling out a capitulation event that sends us briefly below the trendline, but we'd need to get back above it. It's currently in the 66.5B area.
This is not financial advice. This is just to show you how dangerous I think the market is looking right now. I'll be able to breathe again if we see some buying here. Buying could indeed be rewarded here, if you have the balls.
-Victor Cobra
Note
We have another possible long term uptrend (drawin in pink), which could also provide some support in the future, around the 20B area. Note
As I suspected, IOTA is one of the first altcoins to bounce. We have to see people putting money back into other alts as well, to confirm that we can hold our support. If this happens, I will lean less bearish :)Note
So far only IOTA has pumped, which is a bad sign. Recently only one or two prominent alts have been moving at once, which shows that the market is weak overall. We need to see some buying in other alt coins happen over the next day or so for me to feel more comfortable.Note
Could be very close to the start of altseason here! Watch closely...Note
The rest of the market failed to follow IOTA, and we're actually LOWER than we were yesterday. This is very bad. This is how close we are to breaking below the support from THREE YEARS AGO: Note
If we do break below, it will need to be in the form of a wick, to show that buyers still exist at all in this crazy market.Note
Actually, if we extend it further back, we DID break below the trendline at the end of the last bear market, and we went relatively sideways below it for about 8-9 months: Note
So this means we could actually find support sooner, and follow something like the red. I guess we won't know until it happens. This would be a much healthier version of the market than what I've been seeing: Note
Wow, still perfectly holding the trendline: 
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