Stepping Back and Seeing the Forest in the TOTAL2 Chart...
Updated
Here is my current narrative about the TOTAL2 chart:
The price action from the December 2018 lows up through March 2019 (see the first ellipse) is the market bottoming out, forming an Adam & Eve type structure and eventually breaking up through the 100, 200, and 300 EMAs. Granted, the Total2 chart is pretty much a chart of a secondary market whose USD values are reflective of the more primary BTC/USD market--I mean that the USD value of a satoshi is determined by the price of BTC.
What I am seeing in this chart that is hopeful is that after we broke decisively up through those three EMAs we got a bit "toppish" and needed to come down and retest the moving averages for confirmation. Where we are currently (see second ellipse) is a smaller version of what happened beneath the 100 EMA. Except now we are wrestling with the 100, 200, and 300 EMAs together. We are right at the confluence of these averages. (I'll share a shot of the weekly below to show a cleaner picture of how we are currently pinched between the 100 and 200 EMAs.)
Assuming BTC is in the opening play of a legitimate bull market, I am optimistic about this altcoin chart for several reasons:
1. We broke up decisively through these EMAs this spring on massive volume. (I can only have 3 indicators per chart so I do not show volume here. But check it out, the collective alts volume is convincing and the sell volume is not yet a problem.
2. Several weeks ago, we wicked down through the 200 EMA (this will be clear on the weekly chart below) and pulled up again closing the weekly above the 200.) We are now consolidating above the 200.
3. On the weekly chart we have several weeks of solid progress into the Ichimoku cloud. This means we have upward pressure on the market. The goal for the coming weeks would be to continue to push through the cloud, break up out of it, and perhaps retest it. On the weekly, we can also see that the Ichi cloud has just turned green within these last two weeks.
Despairish sentiment aside, alts/USD are doing ok. That is my current assessment at least. If we break below the 200 EMA I would see reason for concern. Until then, I interpret the current price action as consolidation similar to the push that moved us up through the EMAs in the spring.
The price action from the December 2018 lows up through March 2019 (see the first ellipse) is the market bottoming out, forming an Adam & Eve type structure and eventually breaking up through the 100, 200, and 300 EMAs. Granted, the Total2 chart is pretty much a chart of a secondary market whose USD values are reflective of the more primary BTC/USD market--I mean that the USD value of a satoshi is determined by the price of BTC.
What I am seeing in this chart that is hopeful is that after we broke decisively up through those three EMAs we got a bit "toppish" and needed to come down and retest the moving averages for confirmation. Where we are currently (see second ellipse) is a smaller version of what happened beneath the 100 EMA. Except now we are wrestling with the 100, 200, and 300 EMAs together. We are right at the confluence of these averages. (I'll share a shot of the weekly below to show a cleaner picture of how we are currently pinched between the 100 and 200 EMAs.)
Assuming BTC is in the opening play of a legitimate bull market, I am optimistic about this altcoin chart for several reasons:
1. We broke up decisively through these EMAs this spring on massive volume. (I can only have 3 indicators per chart so I do not show volume here. But check it out, the collective alts volume is convincing and the sell volume is not yet a problem.
2. Several weeks ago, we wicked down through the 200 EMA (this will be clear on the weekly chart below) and pulled up again closing the weekly above the 200.) We are now consolidating above the 200.
3. On the weekly chart we have several weeks of solid progress into the Ichimoku cloud. This means we have upward pressure on the market. The goal for the coming weeks would be to continue to push through the cloud, break up out of it, and perhaps retest it. On the weekly, we can also see that the Ichi cloud has just turned green within these last two weeks.
Despairish sentiment aside, alts/USD are doing ok. That is my current assessment at least. If we break below the 200 EMA I would see reason for concern. Until then, I interpret the current price action as consolidation similar to the push that moved us up through the EMAs in the spring.
Note
Each circled area appears to be the market's engagement with the marked moving average. No doubt about it, the recent price action beneath the weekly 100 EMa is not as clean as each of the previous reactions to the other EMAs. This price structure is more muddled, more indecisive.
Note
Here we see the price action in the Ichimoku cloud and also squeezed between the 100 and 150 EMAs. It is possible that price breaks down here in a head and shoulders structure to retest the 200 EMA. A retest is fine. A breakdown beneath the 200 isn't. Most optimistically, the Ichi is just turning a promising green.
Note
Well, there we are, a tap on and bounce from the 200 EMA. Let's see how the weekly candle closes.
Note
Possible falling wedge? Price is currently getting squeezed between the 200 EMA and the upper wedge trendline. Wedge terminates on the bottom of the Ichi cloud.
Note
I've marked what could be the 2019 version of the 2015 alt/usd bottom. The Ultimate Oscillator is making a very similar double bottom formation (with the second bottom making it's 4th small V-dip just like the second bottom in 2015).
Note
I know it feels like alts are dead. Alts/Btc have taken an very hard hit since April. Alts/USD continue to look like they are coiling in a pre-bull-run phase. I do not think this means every alt will have a bull cycle. In the 2015 - 2017 bull cycle many, many alts totally died and have completely disappeared. The market will select and determine where the value is, but with continued corporate interest and continued partnerships, it is hard to completely deny that the beginnings of a block-chain eco-system are slowly taking root.
This possible falling wedge has confirmed, and the RSI has bounced from the trend-line. As always, BTC will heavily affect this chart, but in my opinion things are looking positive.
Note
And further, compare the RSI set-up currently with the RSI before the May 2018 altcoin impulse... Nearly identical.
Note
We have broken out of the falling wedge. But volume has not come in. Besides keeping on eye on the weekly to see if this week's candle respects the breakout, here is a zoom out at the monthly:
Note
Note
Last update for now:If we are forming a new, rounded bottom here over the next two or three months, this would be a higher low.
Note
My Alt.D chart is holding steady and looking good. All trend lines look like they are valid. A push up through the black long-term trend would be confirmation of this uptrend. charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/UNMrW
Note
Total2 -- 2OO EMA is holding. A nice bounce from the 200 EMA and a reversal candle from the upper trendline of the falling wedge. Looking good.charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/UNMrW
Note
Oops. Here is the TOTAl2
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.