The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope is a statistical technique used in finance and time series analysis. It is derived from the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, which is a non-parametric regression method.
In the context of the tradingview pine script provided, the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope is calculated based on the Volume Weighted Exponential Moving Average (VWEMA). The VWEMA is a type of moving average that takes into account both the price and volume of an asset. It is calculated by multiplying the closing price of the asset by its volume, then applying an exponential moving average to the result. This weighted moving average gives more importance to periods with higher trading volume.
The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope consists of an upper and lower envelope, which are calculated by applying a smoothing factor (alpha) to the standard deviation of the VWEMA. The standard deviation measures the volatility of the VWEMA, and the smoothing factor determines the width of the envelope. By adjusting the smoothing factor, traders can customize the sensitivity of the envelope to market conditions.
The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope can be used to identify potential overbought and oversold conditions in the market. When the price of an asset moves close to or beyond the upper envelope, it may indicate that the asset is overbought and due for a price correction. Conversely, when the price moves close to or below the lower envelope, it may indicate that the asset is oversold and due for a price rebound. Traders can use these signals to make informed decisions about buying or selling assets.
Additionally, the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope can be used to generate trading signals. For example, when the price crosses above the upper envelope, it may indicate a buy signal, suggesting that the price will continue to rise. Conversely, when the price crosses below the lower envelope, it may indicate a sell signal, suggesting that the price will continue to decline. Traders can use these signals in conjunction with other technical indicators and analysis to make well-informed trading decisions.
In summary, the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope is a powerful tool in technical analysis that combines the Volume Weighted Exponential Moving Average with upper and lower envelopes. It helps traders identify potential overbought and oversold conditions in the market and generate trading signals. By incorporating this technique into their analysis, traders can gain valuable insights into market dynamics and improve their trading strategies.
Supertrend is a popular technical indicator used to identify market trends and potential buy/sell signals. It combines the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope with other technical indicators to determine optimal entry and exit points in the market.
The principle behind the Supertrend indicator is to calculate the volatility and trend of prices using the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope. The Nadaraya-Watson Envelope creates upper and lower bands based on the statistical characteristics of price fluctuations. When the price touches or crosses the upper band, it suggests that the market may be overbought and a potential sell signal. Conversely, when the price touches or crosses the lower band, it indicates that the market may be oversold and a potential buy signal.
The advantage of using the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope to create the Supertrend indicator is its ability to capture long-term market trends while filtering out short-term noise. By considering the volatility of prices and statistical characteristics, the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope provides more accurate identification of overbought and oversold conditions, resulting in more reliable buy/sell signals.
The Supertrend indicator is widely applicable across various markets and timeframes. By combining the features of the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope with other technical indicators, traders can develop more effective trading strategies, improving their success rate and profitability.
In summary, the Nadaraya-Watson Envelope-based Supertrend indicator helps traders identify market trends and potential entry/exit points while filtering out short-term noise. It is a statistical analysis tool suitable for trading in various markets and timeframes.